Justin Lowe: How Good are the Chicago Blackhawks in 2019-20? As we sit here at the end of July, there are a lot more questions than answers with this Blackhawks team.

Are they going to make a trade for a top 4 defenceman?

Are they going to sign Rick Nash?

Can they go into this season with their current team and win more games than they lose?

… and finally, what is the ultimate plan for this team not just for this year, but for the future?

Well it’s a realistic plan. Not sure the front office will be happy missing the playoffs three straight years

1) Good enough to challenge, if they are healthy enough to go to the dance.

2) The rebuild is underway, and the dedication to fitness this summer will determine if the present nucleus has the desire to win early and continue steady all season.

3) I think an in-house signing comes before a outside the organizational move.

I would say make a run for Nash (one year deal), and NOT Faulk, Patches, or Skinner! Nash is proven although aged with mileage is a really cannot lose situation. He 's proven winger that's know's how to play and if things go south during the season he would be a good rental/trade bait for a playoff team. This would be a good investment either way! If Hawks get Nash:

Saad/Toews/Debrincat
Nash/Schmaltz/Kane
The rest in blender if Sikura makes it he needs to be on the third line with play makers

The obvious hole is still and defensive top 4 D man. I do not know why the Hawks to chase for Hamhuis.

I hate it when a new blog goes up before I complete posting a comment in the old blog

So ... carried over from the last blog:

This is all a bunch of hogwash

Its not that complicated

We used to be extremely talented, the most talented team top to bottom in the NHL from 2009/10-2014/15. And thus we dominated.

Now, after gradually losing talent and regressing over the past 3-4 years due to poor front office decision making, we simply aren't that good(on paper or on the ice). It has nothing to do with dumping and chasing, playing "heavy", what style of play we're coached up to deploy, what in game adjustments we make or how good the special teams are(I'm pretty sure one of our 3 Cup runs we had the worst PP in the league statistically). And the WORST part is we aren't bad enough to fully rebuild either.

We're stuck in no mans land trying to eek out one more Cup with an overpaid core of has beens. Not gonna happen. No matter how perfectly we're coached up to play whatever system Q deploys.
- SimpleJack


This sums it up quite nicely. Consequently I believe we're past the point where "damn the future to do whatever it takes to win this season". That was the right thing to do when we were legitimate contenders and it resulted in 2 more Cups after the 09/10 breakthrough season - it's not anymore.

However, there is still reason for optimism. Toews and Kane are only 30 meaning they could still have 4 or 5 years of elite play, especially Kane. Seabrook and Keith may not have that many more "good years", but they may still have a few. If the young d-men and forwards can grow into the players we hope they become - then the Hawks could be contenders again in 2-3 years while the old core is still playing well. But "going for it this season" at the cost of the future is the absolute wrong thing to do because it isn't going to result in a Cup win this season and it's going to reduce the chances for a Cup win while the old core is still playing.

I hate it when a new blog goes up before I complete posting a comment in the old blog

So ... carried over from the last blog:

This is all a bunch of hogwash

Its not that complicated

We used to be extremely talented, the most talented team top to bottom in the NHL from 2009/10-2014/15. And thus we dominated.

Now, after gradually losing talent and regressing over the past 3-4 years due to poor front office decision making, we simply aren't that good(on paper or on the ice). It has nothing to do with dumping and chasing, playing "heavy", what style of play we're coached up to deploy, what in game adjustments we make or how good the special teams are(I'm pretty sure one of our 3 Cup runs we had the worst PP in the league statistically). And the WORST part is we aren't bad enough to fully rebuild either.

We're stuck in no mans land trying to eek out one more Cup with an overpaid core of has beens. Not gonna happen. No matter how perfectly we're coached up to play whatever system Q deploys.
- SimpleJack


This sums it up quite nicely. Consequently I believe we're past the point where "damn the future to do whatever it takes to win this season". That was the right thing to do when we were legitimate contenders and it resulted in 2 more Cups after the 09/10 breakthrough season - it's not anymore.

However, there is still reason for optimism. Toews and Kane are only 30 meaning they could still have 4 or 5 years of elite play, especially Kane. Seabrook and Keith may not have that many more "good years", but they may still have a few. If the young d-men and forwards can grow into the players we hope they become - then the Hawks could be contenders again in 2-3 years while the old core is still playing well. But "going for it this season" at the cost of the future is the absolute wrong thing to do because it isn't going to result in a Cup win this season and it's going to reduce the chances for a Cup win while the old core is still playing.
- EbonyRaptor

Ha... Let's try to coordinate that better next time EbonyRaptor!

I would say make a run for Nash (one year deal), and NOT Faulk, Patches, or Skinner! Nash is proven although aged with mileage is a really cannot lose situation. He 's proven winger that's know's how to play and if things go south during the season he would be a good rental/trade bait for a playoff team. This would be a good investment either way! If Hawks get Nash:

Saad/Toews/Debrincat
Nash/Schmaltz/Kane
The rest in blender if Sikura makes it he needs to be on the third line with play makers

The obvious hole is still and defensive top 4 D man. I do not know why the Hawks to chase for Hamhuis.
- D2D

Honestly, I am in favour of a one-year Rick Nash deal. There's nothing else out in the open market that would move the needle too much.

There is potential for some serious issues at LW this season. Saad at 1LW and Kunitz at 4LW are good bets, but there is a big cap with the middle 2 LWs.

The team is hoping that Kahun and Ejdsell can will those voids, but it's a risk. I believe (for no particular reason) that Kahun can fill the 3LW slot but I'm not sure about Ejdsell yet. I'm not saying he can't fill the role, but he's just not a lock.

I think the Hawks need to make another move to land a middle 6 winger. Somebody with a reasonable contract that expires in the next 1-2 seasons. Sam Gagner (not because of the Kane connection) and Jean-Gabriel Pagueau are two guys that come to mind. Both guys have cap hits of around $3.1 million for the next two years, that shouldn't interfere with re-signing Schmaltz and DeBrincat. Both Vancouver and Ottawa are clubs that would be looking for prospects so the Hawks wouldn't have to part with a significant asset.

Gagner and Pageau are not superstars, but they're solid, cost-effective depth forwards that can help fill a temporary void. Just to be clear, I'm suggesting Stan go after one of these guys, not both.

Well written I like the visualization it helps see where this Team is going or not. IMO I wouldn't trade away the kids let them play and learn. My feeling is that Stan has something up his sleeve and no its not his pacifier. Who knows maybe this team comes out and surprises everybody I know wishful thinking but that's why they play the games. Anyways Good job JL......

I believe if Stan (McD) can stay the course, it is more likely the 2020/21 season is the targeted season (if not the 2021/22 season). The 2018/19 and 2019/20 seasons will be stepping stones to get to legitimate contender status.

The 17/18 season had Schmaltz and DeBrincat.
The 18/19 season will have Jokiharju and Sikura.
The 19/20 season will have Boqvist and one of two others (Soderlund, Shalunov?)
The 20/21 season could have a rookie crop of Wise, Mitchell, Beaudin.

Somewhere over the next couple seasons should see some of the lesser lights find their roles as well - Forsling Hillman, Hayden, Ejdsell, Kahun and others.

Plus if the Hawks do miss the playoffs this season (likely) and possibly next season (?), then they would have high draft picks to add to the mix, and depending on the bounce of the draft ping pong balls possibly even a very high NHL ready draft pick.

In the 2020/21 season, Toews and Kane will be 32/33 and quite possibly still playing at a very high level. Keith and Seabrook will probably be reduced or retired but the young d-corps will be primed to take their place. Crawford will be 35/36 and if he's healthy still could be playing at a high level.

2020/21 lineup:

Saad-Toews-Sikura
DeBrincat-Schmaltz-Kane
Soderlund-Wise-Shalunov
Kampf-Kahun-Hayden

Forsling-Boqvist
Beaudin-Jokiharju
Keith-Mitchell
Seabrook

Crawford
Delia (?)

Chris Kuc coming up on SiriusXM NHL in about 10 minutes.

There is potential for some serious issues at LW this season. Saad at 1LW and Kunitz at 4LW are good bets, but there is a big cap with the middle 2 LWs.


- DarthKane

I hope DeBrincat is the LW with Kane. He is arguably the best shooter and the second best playmaker on the team and would play a similar role as Panarin did. I'm not saying DCat is as good as Panarin (he isn't, mainly because he doesn't skate as well as Panarin) - but he plays the high-IQ offensive game that Kane will exploit the same way he did with Panarin as his linemate. Plus, since neither Kane nor DCat rely on speed to play their "half court" game, Anisimov could be used as their center the same as he was with Panarin/Kane which frees up Schmaltz to be used at 3C or 1RW.

Chris Kuc coming up on SiriusXM NHL in about 10 minutes.
- walleyeb1

Thanks, can you keep us updated on what he says.

Jason Zucker just signed 5-years at $5.5M. He is a decent comparison for Schmaltz so hopefully that helps keep Schmaltz at around $6M or under.

Nice exploration, Justin.

Now let me throw some cold water on all this.

Crawford is 33-34 this year, and hasn't played or apparently trained meaningfully since December. Whatever the condition is, and especially if it is/was a concussion, there's probably a high likelihood of recurrence IF he plays again regularly.

Start there. So 34 year old Cam Ward who is the guy that made the'Canes go out and sign Scott Darling is arguably your best goaltender.

The defense, after a 35 year old Keith and a supposedly renewed Seabrook, is ehhhh, not very good. Although I suspect Boqvist may be playing in Chicago and contributing in 19-20. Maybe Jokiharju too. But Jokiharju especially probably has a ways to go as a defender in the pros.

Hawks are also very suspect down the middle right now—although IF Schmaltz improves this year in a couple of key areas of center play, that would help. Big IF, because those specific improvements were supposed to have happened last summer and really didn't.

I just think a lot of (unrealistic at this point) hope is being pinned on a "not too painful" transition from the core of the last several years to a new generation.

I would suggest the team needs at least a couple more players at a similar stage of their career and development as where Saad is: good, proven young talent without "holes" in their games to make that transition.

Keith, Seabrook, Toews, whatever is left of Crawford are all getting old fast.

And a lot is being assumed about prospects and draft picks. Reminds me some of the early 2000s when everyone thought Steve McCarthy, Yakubov, Vorobiev, Babchuk, et al were part of a bright future. And they weren't.

On a positive note, I don't think the Hawks included Hinostroza in the deal to AZ just to sit on the cap room the deal created. On a negative note, I heard yesterday, the front office is all tied up in knots trying to agree on what is fair return in an acquisition of a top 6 LW, and other teams are getting frustrated with it.

Personally, in spite of "we like our team," I give the Hawks enough credit to think they really don't. But they are having a hard time doing anything about it right now.

If this team makes no more moves, and the stated ONE GOAL for this year from McEgo is to make the playoffs, I just don't see it happening.

Still too many ifs and holes in the lineup, which combined with the rhetoric about making "big changes" just a few short months ago, and the executive driven downward adjustment of expectations from ONE GOAL to MAKE IT TO THE FIRST ROUND AND PRAY FOR THE REST, is a stiff kick to the sack of anyone who invested in season tickets based upon promises to its fan base.

So in the few days remaining before McD's convention, he has NO big changes to trumpet, and I suspect that is one of the bigger issues making the front office interpersonal mayhem the cluster that it is.

Nash? Sure, for one year under $2MM. Maybe.... There are few options available in UFA land, but older and not top six caliber. Trading for anything of value will require accepting a turd chaser contract and/or loss of a "vaunted prospect" or a rare NHL ready roster player.

I honestly think the FO would have made much more progress in managing expectations by just being honest about a rebuild and that it will take a while. Finish last a few more times, let some of these crazy contracts expire, and come out on the other side a better team.

Saying one thing and doing another just reeks of Eugene Levy used car salesman tactics from the National Lampoon Vacation movie. But that is the reality of a leader who runs the show when things are good, and ducks and covers when things are not so good.

Jason Zucker just signed 5-years at $5.5M. He is a decent comparison for Schmaltz so hopefully that helps keep Schmaltz at around $6M or under.
- EbonyRaptor

Based on what you've seen to date, would you sign Schmaltz at 5yr/$6m per? Not saying I wouldn't, but I would have to think hard about it for sure.

I hope DeBrincat is the LW with Kane. He is arguably the best shooter and the second best playmaker on the team and would play a similar role as Panarin did. I'm not saying DCat is as good as Panarin (he isn't, mainly because he doesn't skate as well as Panarin) - but he plays the high-IQ offensive game that Kane will exploit the same way he did with Panarin as his linemate. Plus, since neither Kane nor DCat rely on speed to play their "half court" game, Anisimov could be used as their center the same as he was with Panarin/Kane which frees up Schmaltz to be used at 3C or 1RW.
- EbonyRaptor

I'm not sure where Debrincat will play, he jumped between LW and RW last year. Does anyone (cough, cough, LBR, cough, cough) have the stats on how much time he spent at each position?

I was assuming he Hawks wanted Schmaltz at 2C, if they don't then there are some better options for the top 6:

Saad - Toews - Debrincat
Schmaltz - Anisimov - Kane

The 3rd line is a bit shaky. I think Sikura and Kahun will get a shot one he wings but neither is a lock, plus who then centres the line?

I'd say Kunitz and Kruger are locks for the 4th line, but Kunitz could be more of the 13th forward. I expect Hayden and Ejdsell to get a look, but much like Sikura and Kahun their success is far from guaranteed.

I've suggested that Gagner or Pageau could be good trade targets for the middle to bottom 6. Rick Nash, Jannik Hansen, and Tommy Wingels could be solid options n the UFA market.

Based on what you've seen to date, would you sign Schmaltz at 5yr/$6m per? Not saying I wouldn't, but I would have to think hard about it for sure.
- John Jaeckel

I think 6 years at around $6 million would be fair.

Based on what you've seen to date, would you sign Schmaltz at 5yr/$6m per? Not saying I wouldn't, but I would have to think hard about it for sure.
- John Jaeckel

I would prefer to wait until next summer to see what he does this season even though it could mean another $1M or so to get him signed. So I would prefer to pay him $6.5M after the 2018/19 season (if he earns it) rather than locking him up for less before he proves it this season.

Edit: or extend him during this season if he proves it for several months.

I'm not sure where Debrincat will play, he jumped between LW and RW last year. Does anyone (cough, cough, LBR, cough, cough) have the stats on how much time he spent at each position?

I was assuming he Hawks wanted Schmaltz at 2C, if they don't then there are some better options for the top 6:

Saad - Toews - Debrincat
Schmaltz - Anisimov - Kane

The 3rd line is a bit shaky. I think Sikura and Kahun will get a shot one he wings but neither is a lock, plus who then centres the line?

I'd say Kunitz and Kruger are locks for the 4th line, but Kunitz could be more of the 13th forward. I expect Hayden and Ejdsell to get a look, but much like Sikura and Kahun their success is far from guaranteed.

I've suggested that Gagner or Pageau could be good trade targets for the middle to bottom 6. Rick Nash, Jannik Hansen, and Tommy Wingels could be solid options n the UFA market.
- DarthKane

wasn't their talk of bringing him back after the season, as part of the trade that sent him to Boston?

I would prefer to wait until next summer to see what he does this season even though it could mean another $1M or so to get him signed. So I would prefer to pay him $6.5M after the 2018/19 season (if he earns it) rather than locking him up for less before he proves it this season.
- EbonyRaptor

Agreed. And if he wants too much, then CYA!!

And if I were Schmaltz, I would prefer to wait as well. Some team will pay him.

I believe if Stan (McD) can stay the course, it is more likely the 2020/21 season is the targeted season (if not the 2021/22 season). The 2018/19 and 2019/20 seasons will be stepping stones to get to legitimate contender status.

The 17/18 season had Schmaltz and DeBrincat.
The 18/19 season will have Jokiharju and Sikura.
The 19/20 season will have Boqvist and one of two others (Soderlund, Shalunov?)
The 20/21 season could have a rookie crop of Wise, Mitchell, Beaudin.

Somewhere over the next couple seasons should see some of the lesser lights find their roles as well - Forsling Hillman, Hayden, Ejdsell, Kahun and others.

Plus if the Hawks do miss the playoffs this season (likely) and possibly next season (?), then they would have high draft picks to add to the mix, and depending on the bounce of the draft ping pong balls possibly even a very high NHL ready draft pick.

In the 2020/21 season, Toews and Kane will be 32/33 and quite possibly still playing at a very high level. Keith and Seabrook will probably be reduced or retired but the young d-corps will be primed to take their place. Crawford will be 35/36 and if he's healthy still could be playing at a high level.

2020/21 lineup:

Saad-Toews-Sikura
DeBrincat-Schmaltz-Kane
Soderlund-Wise-Shalunov
Kampf-Kahun-Hayden

Forsling-Boqvist
Beaudin-Jokiharju
Keith-Mitchell
Seabrook

Crawford
Delia (?)
- EbonyRaptor

History tells us that Defensemen tend to last longer in their careers than forwards. With the changing game and more emphasis on speed, maybe that will change also, but to assume that Kane and Toews will be at a high level and Keith and Seabrook at a reduced or retired level would be counter indicative.

An interesting analysis about how NHL players age and decline can be found here:

https://hockey-graphs.com...s-for-nhl-skaters-part-1/

It would support that D-men age better than forwards.

Regardless of whether the Hawks make the playoffs or not this season, I think the important thing is to find out where all the youngsters are, what are their ceilings and what are the options.

Debrincat and Schmaltz need to continue to improve, mature and gain strength. Hayden, Sikura need to prove that they have the potential to be top-6 players. The Young defensemen, regardless of which mix you choose, need to prove they can compete and be consistent at the NHL level.

Honestly, I am in favour of a one-year Rick Nash deal. There's nothing else out in the open market that would move the needle too much.
- Justin Lowe

I am one of the few who is total agreement of what Stan has done so far.

Of all the FA contracts signed so far, there are none I would have hoped inked with the Hawks. Too much $$$, too much term for what we would get.

Even with Skinner, Patches, Nash or whoever is left....I say stay away, UNLESS it is only for a ONE YEAR deal.

The Hawks have some good young talent. They also have some Cap space for the first time in ages. Add that to the Cap space coming off the books next summer. If they can keep it to ONE year contracts they can actively look for some difference makers next year, when the younger group is closer to being NHL ready.

Big question is....who are the TOP 3-4 unrestricted Free agent prospects NEXT off-season that may help us get back to contending.

And, on a side note. Although I know it is almost an unwritten rule among GMs to NOT offer sheet guys. Could the Hawks offer sheet one of those young Leafs (Matthews????....to a 12 million a year contract????...and see if Leafs would match. I am sure they would, but then Marner or Nylander may be left exposed...
Never happen I suppose. But, I wish some GMs would shake things up with such a move!!!

wasn't their talk of bringing him back after the season, as part of the trade that sent him to Boston?
- Slofire94

That was always a thought, and I think there is some sense to it. Another one year sub-$1 million deal. Wingels can help the bottom 6 and he can be flipped at the TDL if the Hawks are sellers. He probably wouldn't be my first choice, but I wouldn't complain if the Hawks signed him.