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How Good are the Chicago Blackhawks in 2019-20? |
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As we sit here at the end of July, there are a lot more questions than answers with this Blackhawks team.
Are they going to make a trade for a top 4 defenceman?
Are they going to sign Rick Nash?
Can they go into this season with their current team and win more games than they lose?
… and finally, what is the ultimate plan for this team not just for this year, but for the future?
I am going to pretend I have a crystal ball and say that it's telling me that the Hawks stay the course and don't make any moves because Stan (and the executive team) doesn't want to mortgage the future for a Justin Faulk or Max Pacioretty.
So what does that mean for the Hawks in the next couple of years? Will this plan to hold onto these young players vs. getting immediate help benefit them in this re-tooling? (<- Justin, this is a lot of questions)
Okay… okay, let me get to the fun part of this blog. To help visualize, let's break this into 3 different departments – 2018-19 (in-season), 2019 (off-season) and 2019-20 (in-season).
2018-19 (in-season)
Saad-Toews- Debrincat
Ejdsell-Schmaltz-Kane
Kahun-Anisimov-Sikura
Kunitz-Kruger-Hayden
Martinsen, Kampf
Keith-Jokiharju
Manning-Murphy
Gustafsson-Seabrook
Rutta
Crawford
Ward
Let's say Joel Quenneville has a lineup (or a combination close to) the above to work with. He's going to have his work cut out for him.
I am looking for positives here, but I just feel like there are too many "ifs" for this team to propel themselves into the playoffs.
I mean, you have 5 guys alone who were undrafted, recent acquisitions/signees in Ejdsell, Kahun, Martinsen, Kampf and Rutta. That isn't usually a great formula for success. They can't all be Panarins.
Maybe if the veteran core rebounds and they catch lightning in a bottle with a couple of those guys they can sneak in with this team. Oh, also, Corey Crawford has to be healthy and playing at all-world status for this to happen.
I do also have Henri Jokiharju in the lineup as well as I think he makes the opening game roster.
If this is the scenario that plays out, what this orchestrated? From what I've heard and what has been floating around since the season ended, I'm going to say this was not planned.
It appears Stan struck out with a couple free agents he was courting, which was followed up by the lack of movement on the trade front since then.
The Hawks obviously do not want to move guys like Debrincat, Schmaltz or Sikura, and without doing so, it's going to be very tough to get a deal done for a top 4 defence / top 2 winger.
I do believe those are the areas that need upgrading, although at this point, with the number of defencemen they still have on their roster, I don't think there will be any external aids coming.
So, let's chalk this up to a combination of the Hawks stuck in this weird transition phase and Stan trying unsuccessfully in his executing to find a creative workaround.
Let's look at the pros, cons and random thoughts if this is truly what plays out this year.
BENEFIT: A pro to the Hawks "taking" this route would be to the obvious – they have kept their baby core and will have the funds to sign and build around them.
Another one being, the Hawks just got themselves out of cap hell by trading the Hossa contract and they didn't immediately go out and acquire someone that has a long-term deal that puts them right back in the same spot.
The fact that the Hawks have 5M+ in cap space they have more flexibility to make moves in-season and around the trade deadline in February 2019.
Finally, if the lineup above (or close to) with a few others coming up and down from Rockford, the really young players, specifically Jokiharju will have an amazing opportunity to play (and learn from their mistakes).
DISADVANTAGE: Well, I wouldn't expect them to be a playoff team. So, there's there. Maybe this team can band together and pull a Laz Vegas style state of mind together to win a lot of games.
Those young/inexperienced guys like Jokiharju, Ejdsell, Kahun, Sikura, etc. as much as they will be gaining valuable time with the big club, they would really be thrown into the deep end and asked to do a lot. That will be a huge task for them and it will be a steep learning curve.
RANDOM: Even though a roster, as shown above, is a young team, there would only be 4 rookies on the active 23-man roster.
The Hawks started the 2017-18 with 2 (although the number climbed up during the year) and in 2016-17 they had 6.
2019 (off-season)
The Hawks have would have 9M+ coming off the books from UFAs (Kruger, Kunitz, Rutta, Ward) so there will be some flexibility there.
Now, this is where the "we need to make sure we have money for the younger stars on our teams" comes into effect.
Nick Schmaltz will be in need of a contract and I wouldn't be surprised if the Hawks got it done sooner than later in 2018.
Secondary RFAs will be Dylan Sikura (unless he has a monster year this year), Kampf, Ejdsell and Forsling.
Obviously, so much can happen from here until June 2019, so I won't even attempt to predict specific moves.
I will say though, if the Hawks manage to have a solid performance during the season, there will be a nice chunk of change to build off of that by adding some pieces to set them up for an even strong 2019-20.
BENEFIT: As mentioned above, Chicago will have cap space and a chance to build off of their bounce back year or hit the reset button.
DISADVANTAGE: We will be sitting here in the summer of 2019 with another year gone by with Toews, Kane, Keith, Seabrook and Crawford. These guys are getting older and it's been well documented that some of feeling the effects of A LOT of hockey over the years.
The baby core hopefully takes a huge step in the 2019-20 season because this will be another year "wasted" on the veteran foundation of this team. I say wasted because unless it's a Stanley Cup, it would be deemed as a failure by this organization.
RANDOM: Marcus Kruger will be finishing his contract he signed with the Blackhawks after technically having been on 3 NHL rosters since (VGK, CAR, ARI), even though he only played for the Hurricanes.
2019-20 (in-season)
Who even knows what the team will look like in October of 2019. However, as we come to the conclusion on this blog, I will ask again, what is the ultimate plan for this team not just for this year, but for the future?
If the Summer of 2018 was all about holding on to your young guys, then they better step up in a huge way in the 18-19 season.
Schmaltz needs to solidify himself as an NHL centre (especially if he lands an 8 year / 6M(ish) type of contract. The Hawks need him to be a 2nd line centre at that point.
Debrincat needs to be a goal machine and guys like Dylan Sikura, Victor Ejdsell and John Hayden have to become really strong depth for this team to succeed in the future.
Then on the backend, the Hawks, I'm sure would love to have Henri Jokiharju have a real solid rookie season in the NHL. Then he can be staggered for when Adam Boqvist makes the team in 2019-20 (yes, I think that is the plan).
From there, you might have the making of a really strong team, and depending on who else is brought in, back to being at least a perennial playoff team, without questions.
Saad-Toews-Sikura
Debrincat-Schmaltz-Kane
Ejdsell-Anisimov-Shalunov
Soderlund-Kampf-Hayden
Kahun, Highmore
Keith-Jokiharju
Forsling/Hillman-Boqvist
Murphy-Seabrook
Manning, Gustafsson
Crawford
Delia
As I stated previously, I don't think this was the plan all along, but I do believe (and heard) that this it's 2-3 years down the line that the Hawks are really excited about. Thus, this is the reasoning that they didn't want to part ways with some of these younger players.
Before I would have said that the Hawks prospect pool wasn't deep enough to bank on them for the future to even attempt to replace the veteran core.
Now, with the emergence of Schmaltz and Debincat, along with the studs coming up on defence, I'm warming up to the idea of this Blackhawks team being able to contend again in a few years!
ADVANTAGE: Once again, if the team above somewhat resembles the start of the 2019-20 season, that means he's been successful in keeping the next wave of talent.
Also, this means the Hawks made the right decision to send Boqvist to the London Knights, as well as the overall development of draft picks have been strong.
This would also mean that Schmaltz, Debrincat and Sikura have been growing into their roles and now are considered a part of the "core".
DISADVANTAGE: The Blackhawks weren't willing to part with any younger players, which means the players, coaches and us here on the message boards have shared a fair share of growing pains. It may not be pretty at times.
RANDOM: At this time, Jonathan Toews and Patrick Kane will be entering their 13 NHL seasons. Does anyone else feel old?
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The Fan Convention starts tomorrow – who's going? Anyone?
Maybe we get more answers then OR Stan pulls a big trade off today and this whole blog is pointless.
See ya out there!
JL
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Chicago Blackhawks Blogger • 
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