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Boston Bruins -- Patrice Bergeron, C
Can an elite player still be considered underrated? It's a fair question, but in Patrice Bergeron's case, I'd say the answer is quite certainly yes.
See, Bergeron's lauded for his shutdown game around the National Hockey League, but his ranking amongst comparable L1 talent around the NHL is often unfavorable due to a lack of extreme point production.
Most Boston Bruins fans know why Patrice Bergeron's numbers aren't always chart-ripping, and most hockey fans in general understand that he's probably one of the best two-way players in the game today.
And yet, even with all of that laid out, I'm still going to maintain that his perceived value around the league isn't on par with what it should be. Point blank: He's the best defensive forward in the game, and he does it all without sacrificing much offensively.
Reviewing the Northeast division from a macro-level in the past month has been amusing, if only because the
Boston Bruins dominance at even-strength over the eighty-two game season skewed any kind of analysis with respect from one team to the next.
The numbers by Tyler Seguin, Brad Marchand, Milan Lucic, David Krejci, et al. were collective mind-blowing, but understand that a fair share of their accomplishments -- specifically, offensive accomplishments -- came as a product of total team-dominance. They hemmed teams into their zone for shifts on end. The scoring opportunities relative to the opposition on a game-by-game basis were amusingly disparaging.
But, how did they create said chances? One could easily note that, as a five-man unit, they were largely better than whatever the other team could skate. But, the notable variance in scoring opportunities is key on two ends: One, the creation of those for, and one, the limiting of those against.
It's the second leg of that where Patrice Bergeron really shines. While Claude Julien used many of the above names in quality spots, Bergeron was often sent to the circles directly to the left and right of Tim Thomas, starting the exact number of OZ shifts (47%) as Chris Kelly, a player many regard as a defense-first forward.
Claude Julien simply recognized the advantage he held over most: He had two centers capable of dominating the middle on the defensive areas of the ice, and used them accordingly.
There's one major difference between Patrice Bergeron and Chris Kelly, though. While Kelly and Bergeron skated comparably difficult shifts, Bergeron's production in said minutes was vastly superior. In fact, his Corsi Relative QualComp was -- along with Brad Marchand -- the best amongst Boston Bruins forwards.
That goes without mentioning his usual dominating raw numbers, including his fifty-five(!) takeaways, 59% draw rate, and 1:48 of PK TOI per game. For what it's worth, Milan Lucic, Tyler Seguin, Nathan Horton, Jordan Caron, and David Krejci
combined skated 1:04 of SH TOI per game.
Oh, I almost forgot -- taking in all of the above, he still managed to score sixty-four points(22G/42A). The guy just rules.
Buffalo Sabres Robyn Regehr, D
Defensive defensemen may be the toughest players in the National Hockey League to evaluate. With a relative lack of scoring from the blue line, they're often forced into incredibly difficult shifts. As a direct result, failure is sometimes inevitable. Without much of a chance to make up for it on the scoreboard, they often can be scapegoated for collective disappointment, or in Robyn Regehr's case, written off as a solid but unspectacular player.
I think most Buffalo Sabres fans appreciate what Robyn Regehr does for this team and will do for the team in the future, but understand that he's an imperative cog in Terry Pegula, Darcy Regier, and Lindy Ruff's machine -- without him, the player development curve and subsequent success of players like Tyler Myers, Andrej Sekera, Brayden McNabb, Alex Sulzer, et al. may never come to fruition.
Young blue liners in the NHL often take a bit of time to adjust to the toughest form of competition, especially if said defensemen are transitioning from a slightly-varying style of play (e.g. European professionals making the jump across the pond from bigger to smaller rinks). Blue-chip talent aside, most coaches will try to find them softer situations to play against, giving them the chance to succeed and often exploiting their offensive capabilities -- if there -- for the good of the team.
Robyn Regehr is what he is -- a guy that wants to play physical, defensive hockey on every shift. His five points (1G/4A) in seventy-six games last year is almost laughably low, but Regehr's role on this team isn't to drive possession or dial-up point blasts on the power play.
His job is to keep pucks out of the net against the best of the best. And, last year, he did that as well as anyone.
Regehr's possession metrics were pretty ugly last season, but when you factor in the quality of the talent he played with and the quality of players he lined up against, his production is actually on the right side of the curve. His 1.153 Corsi Relative QualComp led the Buffalo Sabres among qualified skaters, and a lot of that had to do with the above. The players he skated the most with? Andrej Sekera, Derek Roy, and Jordan Leopold. The players he skated against most? Jason Spezza, Phil Kessel, and Erik Karlsson. Literally, those three, in order -- perhaps the three most dynamic offensive players in the entire division, one, two, and three.
By logging those cruel minutes, Lindy Ruff was able to get prized-possession Tyler Myers into better spots. Myers most common opponents included P.K. Subban and Josh Gorges, and the teammate he skated most with was Jason Pominville, he of the 30G/43A variety.
It's Ruff's attempt at giving players with more offensive upside -- and, more upside in general -- a chance at succeeding for the betterment of individual play and the production of a unit as a whole. The alternative -- that is, Myers v. the Kessel/Spezza/Karlsson trio, and Regehr v. Subban/Gorges -- simply doesn't make any sense. Use your DFD in shutdown spots; use your two-way D in minutes where you can get the puck up ice to create scoring opportunities.
And, if you think this is all a little over the top, consider some of the zone start numbers for the Sabres last year. Brennan, Myers, Ehrhoff, Leopold, and McNabb were all above the 50% mark. Sekera -- another underrated player -- was just under the 50% mark. Regehr sat at 46%, second-lowest on the entire team(Kaleta, 41.9%).
What I'm saying: Appreciate Robyn Regehr for what he is and what he's allowing the rest of the team to accomplish. He's taking lumps for the franchise's long-term productivity and doing an admirable job in a spot most others would fail.
Montreal Canadiens -- Lars Eller, C
Brought over in the famed Jaroslav Halak trade, Lars Eller was immediately thrusted into the Montreal Canadiens lineup. For two consecutive seasons, Eller's been a fairly competent player for his team in an increasing role -- his jump from a 11:08 TOI/G player from 2010-2011 to a 15:19 TOI/G player in 2011-2012 certainly speaks to the level of trust and endearment he's built with the coaching staff of the Habs.
It hasn't been easy at times for Eller, who has been forced into an attack that's ranked near the bottom-third of the league two years running(2.5 GPG). Still, he moved his production from a 7G/10A run one year ago to 16G/12A in an expanded one this season, and the outlying variables certainly speak to a third-year of improvement for 2012-2013.
Eller, unlike Pacioretty, Cole, and Desharnais, did not enjoy a high-number of soft shifts. In fact, Eller was more suited into a role like the one we saw Tomas Plekanec in this year -- defensive-oriented, with a lower-number of offensive zone starts(48%) relative to the above.
Because of the lack of C depth for Montreal, Eller was often pushed up in line competition, and still performed reasonably well. He faced the second toughest minutes of any qualified Montreal Canadiens player after Tomas Plekanec, and again, still put together a twenty-eight point season in his second-year at the NHL level.
More to the offensive output: Eller didn't enjoy much -- if any -- PP time this season, logging about thirty seconds per game. That's about a third of what he logged on the penalty kill nightly -- one of the best penalty kills in the National Hockey League, might I add.
Did I mention that Eller's +/- in two fairly ugly offensive seasons for Montreal has been quality, too? A -4 last year and -5 this year are very solid in the minutes he's playing, especially when pegged against a player like Max Pacioretty, who was just a +2 this season with sixty-five points.
Eller, for better or worse, is being molded into this year's Tomas Plekanec, with the end-goal to move Tomas Plekanec into his natural, top-six playmaking position. No longer will Plekanec -- the best creator on this team -- have to log absurdly tough shift after absurdly tough shift, so long as they can develop Lars Eller to become the two-way dynamo they see in him long-term.
Let's wrap this up with a bow: Anyone want to hazard a guess as to what two players led the team in takeaways for Montreal this season? Yeah, you guessed it. Tomas Plekanec, and Lars Eller.
Ottawa Senators -- Kyle Turris, C
When the Ottawa Senators acquired Kyle Turris from the Phoenix Coyotes last season, much ado was made concerning the trade. Rightfully so. The organization not only parted with a premium draft pick, but they gave up blue-chip prospect David Rundblad. As the saying goes, you have to spend a little to get a little. Ottawa certainly had to offer an enticing and valuable package, but after Y1 of the trade, it appears that they received quite the top-six talent.
Kyle Turris has been billed as a two-way center since his selection in the 2007 NHL Draft. Even with the Phoenix organization doing their best to derail Turris' natural development curve, the kid's natural skill set made him an everyday player. In fact, his thin-frame aside, there really isn't a hole in Turris' game.
Watching the above translate to the stat-sheet was a beautiful, beautiful thing. Defensively, Turris was a wizard, especially at even-strength. It should be noted that Kyle Turris did benefit from a favorable on-ice save percentage (.943, 1st amongst Ottawa skaters), but some of that had to do with the opposition's inability to drive possession and create high-quality scoring opportunities when he was logging minutes.
The above is quantifiable, too. Turris' fifth-best Corsi Relative -- measuring possession against those of his teammates -- doesn't jump off the page, but considering the names above him -- Daniel Alfredsson, Jason Spezza, and Erik Karlsson, for starters -- it's fairly understandable. Take it one step further and factor in the quality of competition he skated against, which -- along with Daniel Alfredsson -- was the toughest on the team.
It's pretty clear that Paul MacLean opted to use L2 in more of a shutdown capacity, sending out the L1 gunners + Erik Karlsson in the more favorable OZ shifts. Turris' only saw 52% of his shifts start in the OZ -- a fairly low rate for a team that drove puck-possession and made the most of desirable match-ups after puck stoppages. Turris' start rate, for a comparable, was right next to Erik Condra's.
This brings us to perhaps the most important point of all: Kyle Turris was beyond snakebitten last season, much in the same respect as Nikolai Kulemin in Toronto. Skill certainly plays a role in finishing scoring opportunities, but I'd argue that the luck factor is just as important. There are too many instances where pucks favorably bounce off of bodies -- or, unfavorably bounce off bodies -- to not account for such variance.
Turris' on-ice shot percentage last year was 7.43%, dead last on the team. Glance at the other end of the spectrum to realize what kind of forcefully-diminished offensive production Turris was victimized by -- Jason Spezza towed a 10.54%, a quite large discrepancy.
The good news is that, so long as the team maintains a comparable level of offensive production, Turris' offensive numbers should trend heavily upwards from his 12G/17A (29 PTS -- 49 GP) performance last year.
Toronto Maple Leafs -- Carl Gunnarsson, D
Advanced statistics don't just like Carl Gunnarsson -- they flat out adore him. After all, he's one of just a handful of Toronto Maple Leafs skaters to post a positive Corsi Relative QualComp three years in a row. His last performance in 2011-2012, though, may be his magnum opus. No skater faced tougher competition than Gunnarsson last year, and yet, his statistical output on both the defensive and offensive end was impressive. Offensively, Gunnarsson's four goals and fifteen assists in seventy-six games played don't scream Norris Trophy, but when you consider the periphery, it's a pretty respectable output. For instance, consider Gunnarsson's 45% offensive zone start number -- good for second-toughest(qualified) on the team, with only David Steckel -- high-leverage face-off extraordinaire -- besting him(38%) in that respect.
His raw numbers in the defensive zone are respectable, too. His 152 blocked shots easily led the team this season, and I certainly expect Randy Carlyle to build on that accomplishment as the team prepares for next season. Also of note: 34 takeaways, which tied for the team lead -- along with Jake Gardiner -- amongst defensemen.
As mentioned above, there were a few reasons why Gunnarsson's nineteen-point output may seem on the low-end. For one, Gunnarsson was one of the few legitimate penalty killers on this team, and as such, maintained a pretty unfavorable SH TOI/PP TOI discrepancy. Couple that with the coaching staff's favoring of the younger blue liners with more offensive upside --
I'll touch on this in a minute -- and you have a spot where a solid two-way defenseman looks more like a shutdown rearguard on the stat sheet, even if that isn't really the case.
Ron Wilson and Randy Carlyle essentially used Carl Gunnarsson in the same manner. A top-four, defensive-minded defenseman that could favorably drive possession and provide the players with more upside like JM Liles, Luke Schenn, and most notably, Jake Gardiner -- all with varying degrees of ceilings -- with the softer shifts in terms of ice-positioning and quality of competition.
Gunnarsson did play a ton of TOI at even strength with Dion Phaneuf, but it's the latter of the two -- the captain of the Toronto Maple Leafs -- who seems to garner all of the attention, be it positive(early in the season) or negative(later in the season). Altogether, Phaneuf had a pretty impressive year. So too did Carl Gunnarsson, but many continue to overlook the twenty-five year old Orebro, SWE native.
Ottawa Senators Blogger • 
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