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Final Next Great LEafs Writer Audition: John M “Narrative Needs to Change |
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Ek’s Note, Thanks to all of you for so many great submissions, and thanks to the commenters on helping guide our editorial team in the direction you all like…This spot belongs to YOU and we need to fodder the best we can to give you what you deserve…Tomorrow we will start narrowing this down. SO keep letting us know what you like.
b>Why the Leafs Keep Falling Short — And Why the Narrative Needs to Change
By John M
One of the most frustrating narratives in Leafs coverage — from the media to fans — is the belief that this team fails because “these guys just aren’t winners.” That they’ve collapsed because they have too much skill and not enough grit, and that change, any change, is needed to fix things. The issue with this perspective is that it lacks real analysis. It’s emotional, not informed — and it’s one of the biggest reasons the Leafs may never take the leap to being elite.
The reason the Leafs haven’t succeeded is because they didn’t lean into their skill enough — not because they had too much of it. Year after year, they removed skill from their roster — like Kadri and Sandin — and replaced those players with veterans, leadership, and a conservative, low-event style. They failed to double down on what they were good at. Instead, they expected four guys to score while the rest of the team played no-event hockey. Now, under Treliving and Berube, they are leaning even further into that approach, playing an extremely conservative system and bringing in physical but low-skill players like Steven Lorentz. It led to a terrible product on the ice this year. Their possession metrics were poor — and yes, that does matter. If you watched all 82 games and the playoffs you’d realize their process for winning wasn’t sustainable or fun to watch.
Can you honestly tell me the Leafs produced a good product to watch this season? They were constantly outshot, outchanced, and hemmed in their own zone far too much for a team of their caliber — and that was by design, to some extent.
Leafs coverage is entertaining at times, but it often lacks real analysis. They don’t explain what part of the game the Leafs or the opposition are failing at — it’s just “these guys are losers” or “you can’t win with them.” But the truth is none of us really know what the locker room is like. What we can do is analyze the actual game.
For example, the Leafs’ top line this year had just a 49% expected goals percentage, while Matthews, Marner, and Bunting were closer to 65% in previous years. The fact that this year, arguably our three best players at their positions were playing together but didn’t generate nearly the same level of chances as Matthews and Marner did previously should have been a red flag. It called for switching things up or acquiring a player more complementary to them — not using your best assets on a fourth-line left winger, who was mostly playing on the Flyers’ fourth line, a bottom feeder team.
Knies is a good player, but for a few reasons, it just didn’t click with Matthews and Marner. That’s not to say Bunting is better than Knies — he’s not — but Bunting’s play style and his ability to do the small things — like getting pucks off the wall quicker or playing better off the rush — helped get the team out of their zone faster and create more chances. Those details matter.
As for Mitch Marner, much of the criticism is narrative-based: "too small," "not physical enough." Yet Marner had 31 hits in 13 playoff games this year—the same number as Matthew Tkachuk. Yes, Tkachuk is more physically imposing, and hits aren't the be-all and end-all stat to look at, but the media often paints Marner as a player who doesn't engage physically, which is simply not the case. He also posted 13 points in 13 playoff games, currently ranking sixth in the league despite being eliminated.
To fans who don’t want to re-sign Marner, I suggest you don’t stop at “I don’t want to sign Marner.” Everyone who doesn’t want to resign him has to answer one question: How do the Leafs get better if he leaves for free this summer? Is it just bloodlust or change for change’s sake? To those wanting the team to sign Marchand at 37 and a bunch of depth pieces instead of Marner and Tavares, I promise you that team would struggle to make the playoffs. Many hate the idea of running it back, but tearing out one of the few things that actually works just because you’re frustrated isn’t a strategy.
Look at Florida. They don’t win because they’re tougher or mentally stronger than the Leafs. They win because they play an aggressive system. Their forecheck is extremely intense and their defensemen pinch and keep the puck in the offensive zone more than anyone else in the league. This style leads to a high-risk, high-reward game — they give up the most breakaways in the league because of it — but they aren’t afraid to make mistakes. This contrasts directly with the super conservative style Leafs management and fans want to play. A mistake by a Leafs player leads to brutal fan and media backlash. Matthews’ Game 6 goal came off an Ekblad turnover in his own zone — yet nobody mentions that.
Another reason Florida wins is that they take chances on players when they’re undervalued — Verhaeghe, Reinhart, Montour, Forsling, Bennett — and continue to do so even when it’s not resounding success. Jesper Boqvist, for example, was a high pick who bounced around and isn’t very physical but has historically great forecheck pressure metrics — and Florida signed him. Jesse Puljujärvi is another guy they took a chance on when most of the hockey world had written him off. These may not all be slam dunks, but the Panthers scout and take chances on skill players, not sign Ryan Reaves for three years.
The Panthers also trust their youth. They give young players real minutes and allow them to develop in meaningful roles. Anton Lundell, Mackie Samoskevich, and Eetu Luostarinen are all young players given legitimate opportunities who now play important roles for that team. The Leafs, by contrast, don’t give their young players opportunities to grow. The moment a young Leaf makes a mistake, he’s benched — and the market eats him alive. That’s no way to develop a winning culture or build long-term success.
All in all, the way this fanbase, the media, and prominent figures in Toronto hockey talk about this team misses the mark. Yes, this team is flawed—but I promise you, it is not because they have too much skill.
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