Few Wednesday thoughts.
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Still no word on Robin Lehner. At
last check-in, it sounded like Robin Lehner and the team had agreed to a three-year deal to preserve his RFA fights, and that the final squabble was going to be over the dollar amount. General consensus is that the team's going to get him in the $2.4MM - $2.5MM range, which I think is a fantastic deal
considering potential comparables. Working in Ottawa's favor is probably the two-year deal that Toronto Maple Leafs goaltender James Reimer just signed -- again, another fantastic deal for a team that's really locking up a '1B' starting goaltender at a considerably great cost.
- When Lehner signs his deal, Ottawa will have their final 'budget' heading into the 2014-2015 season. Expect that number to be about $55MM in 'cap hit'. On the cap hit level, there's no chance of catching Nashville at $57MM, nor is there any chance that Columbus will be caught. The Blue Jackets are currently at $54.8MM, but have an outstanding deal with RFA and big-ticket Ryan Johansen that's going to have a big impact on the bottom line. So, the only chance they have of out-spending anyone on cap hit is Calgary, who is at $51.7MM with three players left to sign. On the actual 'dollars paid' ledger, Ottawa's currently in dead last at $52.8MM, and again, that's probably going to $55MM once Lehner is inked. That should be good for 29th in the league, potentially jumping over only Arizona. Also worth noting: $22MM difference between Ottawa post-Lehner and rival Toronto.
- A few thoughts on the arbitration process, which really isn't a process so much as it is a deadline for teams and players to calendar as the final day in which they can agree to a deal. Reality of the NHL landscape under the current collective bargaining agreement is that it takes an awful lot to really get into the realm of alternative dispute resolution -- most of these negotiations settle well before their arbitration date, and the rest generally settle under the gun.
- It's probably a weird grievance to have (I concede this right out of the gate), but I think it's pretty misleading when writers suggest that Player X and Team Y are $ZMM apart heading into arbitration. We have seen that a number of times this summer, most recently with Montreal Canadiens defenseman P.K. Subban. The team's arbitration ask is $5.25MM, and the player's arbitration ask is $8.5MM. There is a constant implication when these columns are written -- especially to a layman reader -- that the gap is insurmountable, or that there could be a real knifefight with respect to finding a deal that works for both sides. It strikes me as intellectually dishonest, because in basically every occasion, the gap is a false bubble that's artificially created, and both sides are more than aware of what they're doing when they do it.
- Let me first say about these arbitration asks: Montreal's doing it right, and P.K. Subban's doing it wrong. Montreal's arbitration ask is almost comically low. There's a reasonable argument to be made that P.K. Subban's a $10MM/yr player. The thing is, pre-arbitration contract negotiations (and arbitration asks) are just an exercise in anchor setting. There's a very sharp reality about setting anchors in negotiations and the role they play in creating a perceived middle ground for the two parties. Perhaps most infamously, we see this on display during every lockout, where NHL owners ask for something absolutely ridiculous, then create imaginary concessions to get a comfortable landing spot for their next deal. Funny thing about the NHL, though, is that the NHLPA is pretty strong. Over in the NBA -- which is going to be headed into maybe the bloodiest sports labor battle we've ever seen in 2017 -- the players association is infamous for just being absolutely drilled by a more competent adverse party. Worth noting: the NBPA just went out and retained more or less
a hired gun to lead them to and through 2017.
- Back to Subban: I have no earthly idea what he's doing with respect to his $8.5MM award request. Again, there's a very real argument he's a $10MM/yr player. And again, this is just an exercise in anchor setting, where in the rare event an arbitrator actually decides on the dispute, he's extremely likely to find a middle turf and award accordingly. Subban's ask is too reasonable in that I think an $8.5MM runway is actually pretty fair. He either doesn't care or is getting bad advice. It very well may be the former, which is great for Montreal and great for the team as they can allocate other dollars accordingly. I certainly hope (and actually doubt) it's not the latter. But if it is, not ideal.
Ottawa Senators Blogger • 
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