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There's No Solution

August 8, 2013, 4:21 PM ET [170 Comments]
Richard Cloutier
Edmonton Oilers Blogger • RSSArchiveCONTACT
Recently, I've been doing a fair amount of interviews on various podcasts not coming from Edmonton. Thank you so much goes out to the people who are willing to include me...It's flattering and I always enjoy talking hockey.

I am noticing some patterns in the discussion. First, everyone asks about the Oilers defense, Understandable. Second, people ask if Dubnyk is good enough. I can understand that question too. Third, people want to know about the Oilers Bottom 6. Yet another logical question.

The defense question is easy to answer: Perhaps the Oilers have their future Top 4 players in Darnell Nurse, Oscar Klefbom, Justin Schultz and Jeff Petry. Fans are going to need to be patient as these four grow and develop. There's no real need for the organization to go out and make a huge deal, because, for the most part, teams don't trade top pairing guys away. The solution...the only solution...is to wait it out. Time is our friend.

As for goaltending, this question will be answered soon. If Devan Dubnyk has the goods, the Oilers will sign him long-term and everyone will be happy. If he doesn't have it, the Oilers will go the UFA or trade route next summer to bring in a big name. Organizationally, the Oilers top goaltending prospects are nowhere near ready to replace Dubnyk.

But the Bottom 6 forward situation...the Oilers have found out the hard way that there's no solution.

Allow me to explain:

There are players on the roster teams want from the Oilers: Hall, Eberle, Nugent-Hopkins, Yakupov, Perron, Gagner, Gordon, Petry, Justin Schultz, Smid, Klefbom, and Nurse. I'd add Ference to the list, but he has a NMC, so he's not going away no matter what. With these players, it would be completely illogical for the Oilers to deal any of them to bring in Bottom 6 forwards. You're not going to downgrade players like that.

The hope was the Oilers could deal Ales Hemsky for a missing Bottom 6 piece, but we've learned this summer that it's not going to happen. His cap hit in the $64mil ceiling world is just too much for what he brings.

Nick Schultz may bring interest in a deal, but the Oilers might rather keep him and play him while Klefbom and Nurse develop. Players like Belov, Fedun, Pitlick and Marincin all have questionable trade value because they have no presentable NHL history to draw from.

Players like Potter, Larsen, Grebeshkov, Eager, and Brown don't have a trade value. The Oilers likely aren't going to move Joensuu, Jones or Lander because currently, they are the best Bottom 6 options the team has available. Actually, Joensuu, Jones and Lander completely makes sense as the 4th line. But not the 3rd. Ryan Smyth needs to retire.

UFA-wise, all the good options the Oilers could have perhaps grabbed this summer are gone.

So what are the options? And just what type of player could the Oilers bring in that would actually make sense playing the wing on the 3rd line? Because that's truly the two roster holes we're speaking about here. If Joensuu, Lander and Jones make the 4th line, who can you find to play with Boyd Gordon to make a functional 3rd line?

As I said on one of the podcasts last night, the Oilers likely will do nothing to address the situation this season. Why? Because doing so would require dealing away too much. Perhaps the only option with respect to making a deal would be moving a defenseman. Smid/Petry and Ference/JSchultz might be a good enough Top 4, for now, allowing the Oilers to move one of Belov or NSchultz. Or maybe Belov is lights-out in the preseason, and this makes it that Smid becomes a viable player to move. Considering all of the Oilers struggles on D last season, it's hard to imagine anyone of value being shifted. Corey Potter and Philip Larsen are likely gone by the start of the season because there's no room for them, but neither bring you a 3rd line winger of quality. Taylor Fedun, Martin Marincin and Oscar Klefbom are all likely starting the season in OKC.

The Oilers...if they are feeling really brave...can deal their 1st round pick next summer. I can't see it happening though, because they've already dealt their 2nd round pick. It's not necessarily wise to go into a draft year only showing up for the 3rd round. No one really knows how good (or bad) the Oilers are going to be this year, so their 1st round pick might be a very good one.

The Oilers could wait for the waiver wire before the start of the season, but waiting is waiting. Former GM Steve Tambellini waited, and waited, and waited for best case scenarios. He no longer works for the Oilers because of it. The early bird catches the worm, and waiting for the waiver wire is likely more miss than hit.

Sigh.

So what can we do? Or maybe a better question is, what will we do?

Likely, nothing.

The only way this changes is if a team steps forward declaring a legitimate interest in Hemsky, or if the Oilers decide that Belov, Klefbom, or someone else is good enough to play a big role on the team this season. Ladislav Smid, if shopped, would certainly bring a suitable return. I know it seems like I'm constantly trying to deal Smid, but the truth is, it's nothing personal. He's not really good enough to be a Top 4 defenseman in the NHL, and he's too expensive as a 5/6. Most Oilers fans don't see it this way I realize, but Oilers fans notoriously worship blue collar guys who have big hearts and limited talent. Smid has played Top 4 minutes because the Oilers didn't have better options, not because he's actually that good.

Like we found out with the Perron for Paajarvi and a pick deal, nothing is free. Sooner or later, the Oilers will need to give up decent assets if they want to get decent assets back. So until we're willing to give up an asset or two of quality, the Bottom 6 we have will remain.

Let's hope they don't cost us too many wins this season.
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