Wanna blog? Start your own hockey blog with My HockeyBuzz. Register for free today!
 

Predicting Blackhawks Goals – Forwards

August 22, 2019, 8:16 AM ET [1 Comments]
Tyler Cameron
Chicago Blackhawks Blogger • RSSArchiveCONTACT


We've looked at the defence for Chicago. They scored 40 goals last year and I predicted that they score the exact same amount next year.

Overall, the Blackhawks scored 267 goals as a team. That means 14.9% of tallies came from the backend with 85.1% coming from the forwards.

Of those 267 overall goals, 44.9% came from Kane (44), DeBrincat (41) and Toews (35). Those 3 accounted for 120 goals which is good for 52.8% of goals out of the forward group.

While it's amazing that the Hawks top 3 forwards found the back of the twine so many times, it's not the best indication of depth. I anticipate that the Hawks will have their scoring spread out a little more next year.

Before I get into that, let's recap how all of the goals shook out:

ACTUAL GOALS 2018-19:


Kane – 44
DeBrincat – 41
Toews – 35
Saad – 23
Strome – 17
Anisimov – 15
Kahun – 13
Perlini – 12
Caggiula – 5
Kunitz – 5
Kampf – 4
Kruger – 4
Fortin – 3
Hayden – 3
Schmaltz – 2
Martinsen – 1
Sikura, L. Johnson, Nilsson – 0

TOTAL FORWARD GOALS = 227


This is in line on how the forward group performed in 2017-18 in relation to the rest of the team; the forward group factored in on 86% of the goals 2 years ago with 85.1% last year.

How were my predictions before the 2018-19 season last year? I have no shame, let's have a look:

2018-19 Predictions:


Patrick Kane – 35
Brandon Saad – 29
Nick Schmaltz – 27
Alex Debrincat – 25
Jonathan Toews – 24
Artem Anisimov – 18
Dylan Sikura – 13
Hayden – 9
Kunitz – 7
Kahun – 6
Ejdsell – 4
Highmore – 3
Martinsen – 3
Kruger – 2
Kampf – 2
Johnson – 2
Fortin – 1
Nilsson – 1
Schroeder – 1

PREDICTED FORWARD GOALS = 212



Where did I go wrong?

Well, I thought DeBrincat would have a more "modest year"… he did not. The Cat lit it up for 41 goals vs. the 25 I predicted.

Nick Schmaltz was a disappointment with only 2 goals in 23 games, however, his "replacement", Dylan Strome entered the scene with 17 goals in Chicago.

Toews definitely exceed expectations.

Sikura did not score a goal let alone hit the 13 goals I predicted.

Overall though, I predicted 212 which was only 15 goals off of the 227 they actually scored… so, not terrible.

Moving on to the fun part, the 2019-20 predictions. Let's first look at the additions and subtractions – in brackets are the goal totals from last year for each player:

OUT:

Anisimov (15)
Kahun (13)
Kunitz (5)
Kruger (4)
Hayden (3)
Schmaltz (2)
Martinsen (1)

TOTAL = 43

IN:

Shaw (19)
Z. Smith (9)
Carpenter (5)
Nylander (2)

TOTAL = 35


Only an 8 goal difference and that's without the potential of Kirby Dach, Dominik Kubalik, Anton Wedin,


Predictions 2019-20:

Kane – 41
DeBrincat – 35
Toews – 29
Strome – 21
Saad – 19
Shaw – 15
Kubalik – 13
Perlini – 11
Dach – 11
Caggiula – 7
Nylander – 6
Sikura – 6
Z. Smith – 5
Kampf – 5
Carpenter – 4
Wedin – 1
Quenneville – 1

TOTAL PREDICTED GOALS = 230

What a great exercise to layout predictions player-by-player.

I originally had the Hawks taking a small step back in terms of GF and making a big improvement in the GA category.

While I still believe the Hawks will have a better GAA per game (that blog will be next), I couldn't find any rationale where this forward group scores less than last year.

The overall predicted breakdown is:

Forwards = 230
Defence = 40
TOTAL = 270

It seems like a bit of a cop-out to predict almost the EXACT same Goals For category, it wasn't on purpose.

Keep in mind that I'm not accounting for injuries, which we all know will occur to a certain degree.

Also, keep in mind, I'm not a psychic, just a blogger having some fun. Here's some rationale on my predictions above:

I believe all of Kane, DeBrincat and Toews will have minor decreases as I believe Colliton's reign won't allow for so much run-and-gun of a style.

In Saad, I have him at 19 goals which is due to the fact the I predict he will spend most of his season on the 3rd line.

Shaw goes from 19 to 15 goals as I am thinking he will bounce up-and-down the lines vs. him playing a majority of his time with Drouin and Domi in MTL last year.

Kubalik replaces Kahun's goals in this prediction.

I also have the bold prediction that Dach will make the team as the 3rd line C and will be close to Kotkaniemi numbers last year an 18-year old who had 11 goals (34 points) in 79 games.

You will also see Nylander and Sikura chipping in with 6 goals each in part-time roles next year.

--

What do you think? Am I crazy?

Talk to me.

See ya out there!

JL

---
Join the Discussion: » 1 Comments » Post New Comment
More from Tyler Cameron
» Predicting Blackhawks Goals – Defence
» Defining the Defence
» It's Getting Crowded Back There
» Rounding out the Top 6
» Key Remaining Dates for Blackhawks Leading up to 2019-20 Season