Well, that was better than a case of Red Bull to wake my butt up… Tweets from TSN's Darren Dreger broke at around midnight that the Philadelphia Flyers have signed Nashville Predators captain Shea Weber to a 14 year, $110 million offer sheet. The clock is now ticking, the Predators have until July 25th to decide what to do… match or not.
Let that one sink in for a second… and for Pred Nation it is important to keep the immortal words of Douglas Adams top of mind… Don’t Panic!
Throughout this entire process, Predators GM David Poile has stated that the Predators will match an offer sheet dropped on the blueliner. If what the reports I am seeing are true, the team that gets him also gets the joy of paying a HUGE amount up front. Sam Carchidi, in his blog on philly.com reports that the upfront money is around $27 million in the first twelve months, $80 million in the first six years. That is a huge chunk of cash. Nick Kypreos has tweeted the details of the offer sheet, according to him it breaks down like this…
Year 1 through 4 - $1 million salary, $13 million signing bonus
Year 5 through 6 – $4 million salary, $8 million signing bonus
Year 7 through 10 - $6 million salary
Year 11 - $3 million salary
Year 12 through 14 - $1 million salary
Putting on my GM hat, here’s how I see the scenarios, going from very simple to tin hat brigade crazy…
Predators Match – Predators get their captain re-signed and committed to the team for the rest of his career.
Predators Decline - Flyers get another Pred captain, Predators get four first round picks and let the rebuild begin in Music City.
Predators Match then trade after one year - Not as farfetched as some would have you believe, especially if you believe the reports about the Predators shopping Weber (which I do not) … this scenario would deliver the best return on the best defenseman in the league, better than four low level first rounders. This only happens if Weber has told the front office that he no longer wants to be in Nashville, something that has not been reported… or even rumored. As a matter of fact, Frank Servalli, in today’s Philadelphia Inquirer is reporting that Philadelphia grew tired of “the repeated rebuffs from Nashville general manager David Poile.” That doesn’t seem to indicate that the Predators were “shopping” Weber.
This is the third offer sheet the Flyers have dropped on an RFA. In 1997 they signed Chris Gratton to one, they also signed Ryan Kesler to an offer sheet a few years back. Should this go in the Flyers favor, this will be the most significant acquisition for that franchise since Eric Lindros and I am sure that Flyer fans are hoping this one works out better for the team.
The Predators ownership has consistently said they will spend to the cap in their pursuit of a cup, they have stated they have the resources to do this. I will take them at their word, however, it needs to be stated, $80 million over the next six years is a huge chunk of cash.
It certainly has been an eventful July in Pred Nation… this story just adds to the fun. Strap in gang, we’re going for another ride! I don’t expect anything to come out of 501 Broadway for at least a few days… until this offer sheet can be closely examined.
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Random Notes
- Preds GM David Poile has indicated previously that the biggest mistake of his career was letting Scott Stevens go via an offer sheet while he was GM of the Capitals. This will play a part in this situation.
- I hope everyone has been paying their cable bills, because if the Flyers get Weber, I have a funny feeling a rise in Comcast rates is coming.
- Great tidbit from Elliote Friedman on Twitter… Philly’s last four first round positions were 20,25,29,21. And to answer his question… no, those four picks are not worth a Shea Weber.
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