Here’s what’s obvious to anyone putting together pre-season predictions in the salary-capped NHL: with very few exceptions, any team’s success in a given year will hinge on player health, puck luck and hitting their stride at the right time (read: end) of the year. If two-thirds of the league experience their best-case scenarios – young players stepping up,
a la the Tampa Bay Lightning last season; or deeply-stacked, mega-payroll teams avoiding the injury bug and producing in the clutch, like the defending champion Chicago Blackhawks did – we could be looking at a Stanley Cup winner who wasn’t a common pick to win it all.
Okay, the disclaimer is out of the way. Now let’s talk expectations for each of the 30 franchises. Not the expectations of their individual fan bases, which range from realistic to true believer, often under the same team’s umbrella. Rather, let's look at the expectations of people within the hockey community – NHL GMs, scouts, player agents, current and retired players, and other media types. Fair or not, those expectations are understood by NHL players when the regular season begins, and the best players either leave them aside and focus on their own expectations, or use them as motivation to prove people wrong.
When it comes to expectations for the 2015-16 season, NHL teams can be slotted into three distinct groups. For a change of pace, let’s use the world of professional wrestling’s pecking order to illustrate those groups and at the same time help us put together pre-season picks. But first, a quick primer: In that predetermined sports entertainment world, pro wrestling talent falls into one of three slots:
The Lower Card: Pro wrestlers assigned this label are the ones who start off an evening of grappling at your local arena and usually have little-to-no chance of winning the heavyweight title. Now, there are some lower-card wrestlers who are young and who have potential down the line to be a wrestling company’s top talent, but so long as you’re one of the first faces fans see on any given card, you’re not going to have people believing you’re the next Stone Cold Steve Austin.
The Mid Card: These types of wrestlers are who you’ve probably guessed they are – too good to be lower card performers, but not at the level of an elite talent. As is the case with lower card wrestlers, mid card talent can be on their way up or down the ladder, or have settled in where they belong. WWE’s Sheamus is a perfect example of a mid-carder: the guy isn’t ever going to be a cultural icon, but he’s above-average and is capable every now and again of surprising you with something memorable.
Main Eventers: These are the wrestlers who sell tickets – the guys who, if they no-show a pay-per-view or live event, will have people expecting refunds. They’re excellent at what they do. They know it, and they know you know it, so they’re as much fun to hate as they are to cheer for. John Cena, glory-day Macho Man Randy Savage., The Rock. Main eventer. This one is fairly self-explanatory. You expect them to be big-time players, and if they're not, they can expect changes to their character and/or other consequences.
So, with that said, here’s one observer’s picks for the three types of Eastern Conference teams we’ll see this season. (And remember, before you flip out in the comment section – just because the general consensus might put your favourite franchise in a spot on the card you don’t like, that doesn’t mean they’re fated for it, nor does it mean they’ll always be there.)
The Lower Card
16. Carolina Hurricanes. The Hurricanes were the East’s second-worst team last season, but GM Ron Francis did not overhaul his roster to the degree some had imagined he would. Captain Eric Staal, winger Jeff Skinner and goalie Cam Ward all had their names included in trade rumors, but all remain Canes as of this writing, and the only newcomers to the organization are veteran defensemen James Wisniewski, journeyman winger Kris Versteeg, backup goalie Eddie Lack, and 2015 first-round blue-chip defensemen Noah Hanifin. They cut loose winger Alex Semin, the NHL equivalent of former WCW letdown
Alex Wright, and that’s addition by subtraction, but not enough addition of goals-for or subtraction of goals-against to make a difference. The Staal Bros. are a little like wrestling’s
Hardy Boyz at this stage – you remember their success, but it feels so long ago, and it doesn’t feel like it’s coming back anytime soon – and the number of holes on the roster (particularly on defense) are indicators Carolina will be a jobber of the first order in ’15-16. There are things to like with this group, but the franchise has a long road before it can climb up the card and seriously challenge for a playoff spot, let alone a championship.
15. Toronto Maple Leafs. A Leafs executive confirmed to Hockey Buzz this summer the Leafs are still “in “tear-down mode”, meaning they’re still in the process of establishing who they are. If you’re still trying to figure out and re-establish your identity as a pro wrestler, odds are you’re going to be flat on your back, losing lots of matches on a regular basis, and that’s where Toronto will be far more often than not this year. Team president Brendan Shanahan has brought aboard Devils icon Lou Lamoniello to serve as GM, and has presided over widespread change that should lead to better days, but those days are not these days. Phil Kessel is now a Penguin, and longtime Red Wings coach Mike Babcock is the most important piece of the Leafs’ puzzle as he implements the latest in a long line of attempted culture changes. Like famous Canadian lower-card wrestler
Iron Mike Sharpe, Babcock will be doing a lot of yelling and threatening this season, but when the final bell sounds, he and his charges will be “enhancement talent” making their opponents look good most of the season.
14. New Jersey Devils. Lamoriello’s departure from the team he built has led to former Pens GM Ray Shero taking over for him, and unfortunately for Shero, the cupboard in New Jersey is nowhere close to full. When Travis Zajac is your No. 1 center and Andy Greene is your top defenseman, it’s more than likely going to be a long year for your team – as it was last season, when the Devils finished 13th in the conference. Shero isn’t afraid to make deals and remake the organization to his liking, which is another reason to expect pain and suffering: new head coach John Hynes will be experimenting with different pieces (including former Duck Kyle Palmieri and ex-Hurricane Jiri Tlusty) and young players, and that’s not normally a recipe for a playoff spot. Poor Cory Schneider can only do so much, and he can’t do enough to stop this team from getting smacked around on the regular. They're the
Jack Swagger of the NHL – it's tough to remember they used to be a world champion.
13. Buffalo Sabres. The Sabres as currently constructed are like The Rock when he was first introduced to WWE fans as
“Rocky Maivia” nearly 20 years ago (and yes, that means you’re old). We know there’s some electrifying talent there – in this case, 2015 draft pick-and-franchise-cornerstone-for-the-next-15-years Jack Eichel, up-and-coming defensemen Rasmus Ristolainen, and newcomer veterans Evander Kane and Ryan O’Reilly – but there most likely will be nights you want to boo this team out of the arena as the new faces (including head coach Dan Bylsma) attempt to form some degree of chemistry with one another. You don’t see many NHL teams go from dead last in the conference to a playoff spot, and it’s not realistic to expect Buffalo will make that huge leap this year. But there are enough thrilling young talents on the roster to make people sit up and take notice of where the Sabres will be in the next few years. They might be low-carders today, but they may be main-eventers before people project them to be.
The Mid Card
12. Boston Bruins. With an in-his-prime Zdeno Chara and Milan Lucic in tow, the Bruins used to be
The Big Show around the league. However, much like WWE’s The Big Show, they do not inspire the same amount of fear, or even hatred. Indeed, you look at Boston now – with a 38-year-old Chara, and without the traded Lucic and young blueliner Dougie Hamilton – the same way you look at Big Show: with a respect for what they’ve accomplished, but with no expectations they’ll get back to the top of the card this year. The injury to veteran Dennis Seidenberg that will sideline him for as many as eight weeks underscores the thin blueline that began thinning in earnest last season after the trading of Johhny Boychuk. And given that their offence (22nd in the league in 2014-15) isn’t exactly reborn with the additions of former Ducks winger Matt Beleskey and Jimmy Hayes, it’s going to be difficult for them to keep pace with the likes of Ottawa, Montreal, and Tampa Bay. The Bruins just missed out on a playoff spot last year, and that may be as good as it gets for them as they continue to transition through a management change and the damage done by Father Time and The Salary Cap (which is also a great name for an in-house, Gary Bettman-led, amateur NHL rock band.)
11. Philadelphia Flyers. The Flyers didn’t clean house this summer – at least, not on the ice; head coach Craig Berube lost his job after Philadelphia finished 11th in the East in 2014-15, but that was about it – which represents a victory for GM Ron Hextall in an organization famous for its personnel carousel. Nevertheless, there may be a paucity of victories on the ice for his team this year, given their defense corps is a mishmash of capable veterans (Mark Streit, Radko Gudas) and reclamation projects (Michael Del Zotto) and their offense doesn’t have enough balance, nor enough of a two-way game, to make up for it. You can’t deny the Flyers have some impressive talent (including captain Claude Giroux, Sean Couturier and Jakub Voracek, and defensive prospects Ivan Provorov and Samuel Morin), but they’re deficient in enough areas to make them the NHL’s version of WWE’s
Cesaro – a group you can see eventually putting it all together, but have yet to see put it all together. And that probably won’t happen in 2015-16.
10. Florida Panthers. The Panthers employ the NHL’s
Ric Flair in Jaromir Jagr, but this team is not the Nature Boy at his peak. They’re a mixed bag of youngsters-on-the-rise and veterans trying to establish South Florida as a place NHLers want to play (and where South Floridians pay to see them play). At this point in their competitive cycle, they’re the NHL’s
Bray Wyatt; you’re curious to see what they’re capable of, but they’ve still got to hone their character and make themselves more essential viewing on a regular basis before you see them as true big-timers. Aleksander Barkov, Nick Bjugstad and 2014-15 Calder Trophy winner Aaron Ekblad provide hope for the present and the future, but they need more building blocks – including their first playoff appearance since 2012 – before you can say they’re a main-event squad in the making.
9. Columbus Blue Jackets. The Jackets were waylaid by a brutal start and by injuries last season, and many are penciling them in to make the playoffs and challenge for the Metropolitan Division crown this year. I can see how that might happen. But I’m still not 100 percent sold on them, though – that blueline still leaves much to be desired – and also see scenarios in which they miss out altogether on the post-season. They’re the NHL equivalent of Ohio-born WWE star
Dean Ambrose right now, with much in the way of upside, but lessons still to learn and growth/development still necessary to embark on a run atop the business. Former Blackhawks sniper Brandon Saad (a near lookalike of WWE champion Seth Rollins) will help in that regard, but their overall defence provides enough question marks to keep them in the realm of “show me before I believe in you” teams.
8. Detroit Red Wings. The Wings are one of the league’s most accomplished franchises, and you dismiss them at your peril. But nobody credibly argues they’re not a little too long-in-the-tooth in the key places (including at the No. 1 center and wing position with Pavel Datsyuk and Henrik Zetterberg, respectively) and will have to fight harder than ever simply to make the playoffs. They’re hockey's version of WWE all-time great (and huge hockey fan)
Chris Jericho, who at age 44 is still enough of a name to draw a crowd, but who isn’t the same Chris Jericho who was winning world titles in 2001. Perhaps Detroit reinvents itself under new head coach Jeff Blashill and they find their groove by playoff time in order to surprise some people. But that’s the point – a team with Niklas Kronwall as its best defenseman would be a huge surprise if it won a Cup this season. Odds are they have some high spots here and there, and eventually bow out to a better competitor.
7. Ottawa Senators. The Sens had one of the most enjoyable late-season playoff runs in recent memory last year, thanks in part to goalie Andrew “The Hamburger” Hammond. They’ve also got a slew of young players (Erik Karlsson, Kyle Turris, Mark Stone, Mike Hoffman, Mika Zibanejad) who are hugely entertaining, the same way the WWE’s
New Day trio currently entertains TV viewers. And, like the New Day, Ottawa also has had some recent lows – it was only back in January when the Senators were almost out of the playoff race before a miracle comeback that ended in a seventh-place Eastern Conference finish. They don’t have a great deal of depth on defense, and some of their possession numbers (including Corsi and Fenwick Close) were closer to the bottom of the NHL than the top. As great as both the Sens and New Day can be, it’s a stretch right now to see either group winning heavyweight championships. But both have overachieved in the minds of many before this, and could continue their rise in the seasons to come.
6. Pittsburgh Penguins. The Penguins have Sidney Crosby, who is to the NHL as John Cena is to WWE. That fact alone makes them one of the better teams in the East – and Crosby now has the NHL’s
Dolph Ziggler in Phil Kessel to augment their offensive attack – but Pittsburgh’s defense corps is not sufficiently strong at this stage to propel the team back to their more familiar status as main eventers. Like Ziggler, Kessel has all the talent in the world, but he’s never been put in a real position to succeed. That is, until now. With Evgeni Malkin, Patric Hornqvist, David Perron and Kris Letang playing alongside him, Kessel is a bona fide threat to win the Rocket Richard Trophy as the league’s best goal-scorer, and the Pens are a bona fide threat to become the 2015 Toronto Blue Jays: killing them loudly with a seemingly unstoppable offense. The playoffs may be another story, but for 82 games, Pittsburgh will put the fear of god into opposition defenders and goalies.
5. New York Islanders. The Isles surprised many in 2014-15 by finishing fifth overall in the East and taking the Capitals to the limit before bowing out in the first round of the playoffs. It was their second playoff appearance in three years, but for every step forward, this team has taken a step back (or at least sideways) for much of the tenure of GM Garth Snow. Out of necessity, they’ve forced some of their younger players into positions they weren’t ready for right away – sound familiar, WWE’s
Roman Reigns? – but they’ve more recently stabilized and now are set to take that next step into the main event. Snow clearly believes in his youngsters as much as WWE head honcho Vince McMahon believes in Reigns, and both architects are determined to see those young athletes blossom into full-blown legends. The Islanders’ defense remains enough of a concern to caution their fans against expecting a Cup win this season, but they’re getting closer, and a backward step seems next to impossible now.
The Main Eventers
4. New York Rangers. Once again, the Blueshirts came agonizingly close to winning their first championship since 1994, losing to Tampa Bay in seven games in the 2014 Eastern Conference Final. And once again, the off-season saw them move several key cogs from that squad (the retired Martin St-Louis, Carl Hagelin and stellar backup goalie Cam Talbot). However, thanks to salary cap concerns and raises for some of their young stars, the Rangers weren’t able to replace those contributors with players of equal skill and pedigree. Yes, their defence remains one of the East’s best; and yeah, they won’t be hurting for offence, either. But with Rick Nash, Henrik Lundqvist, Dan Girardi, and Dan Boyle in their thirties, the clock on this team is ticking more loudly by the minute – and it won’t be long at all until they’re in their
Undertaker Years, creaking along and hoping for the best as they take on a new breed of competitor. New GM Jeff Gorton is hugely respected, though, so there’s still legitimate reason to believe they may yet find the right combination of marquee names and home-developed youth.
3. Washington Capitals. The combination of head coach Barry Trotz and goalie coach Mitch Korn worked wonders in their first year with the Capitals, a team that, prior to last season was on the verge of being the modern-day edition of the Jarome Iginla-era Calgary Flames. Superstar Alex Ovechkin was rejuvenated by the team’s more disciplined play under Trotz, and budding star goalie Braden Holtby found another level for his game under the genius of Korn. It’s true the Caps didn’t make it out of the second round of the playoffs – a feat which they’ve never managed in the Ovechkin era – but they showed enough promise and togetherness as a team to allow GM Brian MacLellan to keep the group largely intact entering this season. It’s taken them a long time to move into the main-eventer category, but with newcomers T.J. Oshie and Justin Williams on board, they’re essentially the NHL’s version of WWE’s
Kevin Owens – a force that’s about to be bigger than they ever were before.
2. Montreal Canadiens. As an organization, the Habs are in some ways the
Cena of the NHL. They’re one of the most polarizing teams in the league, and sure, some of their accomplishments have come during eras when they were put in good positions to win. But whether you love them or loathe them, you can’t deny the connection they’ve made with people and the fact they continue to remain competitive and highly entertaining even when they’re not in their glory years. That said, with the game’s top netminder in Carey Price and one of the game’s top blue liners in P.K. Subban, it’s tough to argue they’re not in the process of entering more glory years. Montreal still doesn’t have a Jonathan Toews or Crosby in their No. 1 center position, but if Alex Galchenyuk continues developing, they might not need someone of that status to win it all. This is a team that’s built around defense and if they’re in peak form come playoff time, they might very well be the hardest team in the conference to eliminate.
1. Tampa Bay Lightning. The Bolts were a revelation to some, but not all of us last season. It didn’t take the second coming of Dickie Dunn to recognize Tampa had an abundance of youth and talent, but it was the way the team dominated – in part because of the ascendance of Tyler Johnson, Nikita Kucherov and Ondrej Palat; in part because of the continued blossoming of top defensemen Victor Hedman; and in part due to the battling spirit of goalie Ben Bishop – that dropped so many jaws. When you can get by in the playoffs without superstar Steven Stamkos leading the way every game, it says much about the incredible depth you’ve developed. The Lightning still aren’t the game’s best defensive team, but they proved in their most recent playoff run they can beat an opponent just about any way they want. And with virtually all of their key players under the age of 26, they’re just getting started. These Bolts are the NHL’s
Seth Rollins – versatile, spectacular and positioned for a long run at the top. They came up two wins short of a Stanley Cup last year, but they’re still the measuring stick for excellence in the East.
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