This week marks the final installation of my previews of the 2017-18 NHL season. (Last week, the
the Metropolitan Division was covered; the prior week,
the Pacific Division was analyzed , and we kicked the process off with a look at
the Central Division). Now we close things out with an analysis of the Atlantic, somewhat of a surprise last season with two teams (the Ottawa Senators and Toronto Maple Leafs) defying the expectations of some analysts and securing a playoff spot while projected post-season organizations in Florida both missed out on playoff games.
This season has seen a good deal of roster alteration by most Atlantic Division franchises, and the battle for playoff berths promises to be rigorous right from the first regular-season showdown. As we now know, even an early-season losing skid of significance can prove to be a playoff-killing debacle for franchises, and consistency will be crucial for all clubs, regardless of where they are in their competitive evolution. And given that only nine standings points and five wins separated the Atlantic’s first-place team from its fifth-place team, it’s likely to be a dogfight from start to finish this year
Here’s how I see the Atlantic shaking down at the end of the 2017-18 campaign:
1. Tampa Bay Lightning
Additions: Chris Kunitz, LW; Dan Girardi, D; Mikhail Sergachev, D
Deletions: Jonathan Drouin, LW; Jason Garrison, D
Why I picked them where I picked them: As noted above, the difference between first place in the Atlantic and fifth (where the Lightning finished despite going 8-1-1 to end the regular season) was only nine points. And if you examine the Bolts’ 2016-17 season, you’ll notice two distinct problems: firstly, an injury bug that limited captain and star winger Steven Stamkos to only 17 games and sidelined center Tyler Johnson for 16 games; and secondly, a two-month stretch through December and January in which they went 9-13-5.
From February on, Tampa Bay engineered a major-league reversal of fortune, going 20-7-4 through the final two-and-a-half months of the season. In the end, they finished one point behind Toronto for the final wild card berth in the Eastern Conference, but they once again looked like the squad who’d played 42 playoff games in the previous two seasons and made it to a Stanley Cup Final in 2015 and an Eastern Final the following year.
Bolts GM Steve Yzerman has proven to be one of the NHL’s more active wheelers and dealers, and this summer he engineered a blockbuster when he dealt blossoming winger Jonathan Drouin to Montreal for 19-year-old blueliner Mikhail Sergachev. The move freed up valuable salary cap space Yzerman needed to sign key members of his current core, and firmed up his defense corps with a dynamic youngster who doesn’t need to step into the NHL lineup right away. He also added a pair of veterans with no shortage of playoff experience in former Pens fixture Chris Kunitz and ex-Rangers D-man Dan Girardi.
Neither of those two will be a difference-maker, and the loss of Drouin (who was the Lightning’s second-best scorer last year with 21 goals) will make it more crucial for Stamkos and others to have bounce-back offensive years. But Tampa already has more than enough difference-makers (including star winger Nikita Kucherov and blueliner Victor Hedman), and so long as they can stay healthy, there’s no reason to believe this lineup can’t be as fast, skilled and successful as it was at the end of last season and in years past.
2. Toronto Maple Leafs
Additions: Patrick Marleau, RW; Ron Hainsey, D; Dominic Moore, C
Deletions: Matt Hunwick, D; Roman Polak, D; Alexey Marchenko, D
Why I picked them where I picked them: (First thing’s first: I write as a columnist for the Maple Leafs’ website. But my employment link wouldn’t change the prediction for them in this, or any other season.)
Here’s the opening paragraph of what I wrote about the Leafs for my pre-season analysis of them last year:
“Any team that finishes the previous season with the NHL’s worst record will have to prove themselves good before people believe them, and that’s where the Leafs are at entering this campaign. However, if you were paying close attention to Toronto’s games last year, you’ll know this franchise was competitive in the grand majority of games in their first year under head coach Mike Babcock and GM Lou Lamoriello – and their transactions in this off-season, combined with the growth of some of their younger talents, could give them enough firepower to surprise people this year and put them in the race for a wild-card berth.”
Lo and behold, could became did, and that’s exactly what happened. Toronto rode the stunning contributions of their young players – most notably, rookie center Auston Matthews, and fellow-first-year NHLers William Nylander and Mitch Marner – as well as career years from veterans such as pivot Nazem Kadri and James van Riemsdyk, to lock up a post-season slot and put a scare into the Washington Capitals before being eliminated in six games in the first round. The Buds’ offense was thrilling, they received better-than-stellar goaltending from first-year Leaf Frederik Andersen, and their still-developing blueline took steps forward.
And while it’s true fortune smiled on them when it came to good health, it’s also true their organizational depth is at its best in years, if not decades. That much was apparent this summer, when Toronto GM Lou Lamoriello used much of his available cap space to bring in a trio of veterans – former Sharks cornerstone Patrick Marleau, ex-Penguins blueliner Ron Hainsey and former Bruins center Dominic Moore, who’ll start his second stint with the Buds – to help the franchise take its next step forward. Marleau clearly is the biggest name of the three, and the 37-year-old still has enough left in the tank to be a big-time contributor; his arrival also deepens the Leafs’ impressive collection of young forwards, and though moves will have to be made to get them under the cap ceiling, the Buds now have a wealth of talent who can step in should someone go down to injury.
If there was one area in which the Leafs have nowhere to go but up, it’s their prowess in the shootout. They were 1-8 in games that extended beyond overtime last year, and you know head coach Mike Babcock will take aim at that stat considering improvement in it could’ve vaulted his team into third or second in the Atlantic. Toronto won’t sneak up on anyone this year and they’ve still got room to grow, but that’s as much of a worry for their opponents as it is an internal challenge. Last year was a taste of what’s to come, and what’s to come looks better than anything Leafs fans have tasted in recent memory.
3. Montreal Canadiens
Additions: Jonathan Drouin, LW; Ales Hemsky, RW, Peter Holland, C; Karl Alzner, D; David Schlemko, D; Mark Streit, D; Joe Morrow, D
Deletions: Alexander Radulov, RW; Andrei Markov, D; Nathan Beaulieu, D; Alexei Emelin, D; Brian Flynn, C; Nikita Nesterov, D; Mikhail Sergachev, D
Why I picked them where I picked them: The Canadiens finished first in their division for the second time in three seasons and the third time in five seasons, but their 2016-17 campaign included a coaching change (with the jettisoning of Michel Therrien in favor of Claude Julien) and it ended with a weak first-round exit at the hands of the New York Rangers. And for the second straight season, it led to a summer filled with high-impact roster changes that have polarized Montreal’s passionate fan base.
This time around, Habs GM Marc Bergevin allowed two more fan favorites – winger Alex Radulov and cornerstone D-man Andrei Markov – to leave via unrestricted free agency for Dallas and the Kontinental League respectively. He also moved blueliner Sergachev to Tampa for budding star Drouin, signed veteran forwards Ales Hemsky and Peter Holland, and radically remade his defense corps, shuttling out Alexei Emelin (via the expansion draft), moving Nathan Beaulieu to Buffalo, acquiring David Schlemko from Las Vegas, and signing former Capital Karl Alzner, ex-Bruin Joe Morrow and former Penguin Mark Streit (for his second go-around with the franchise).
All this, remember, for a team that finished atop the Atlantic. Of course, Bergevin still retained the services of star goalie Carey Price and blueliner Shea Weber, and still has winger Max Pacioretty in his prime and 23-year-old forward Alex Galchenyuk working toward his prime. There’s a foundation of talent that will keep Montreal competitive, and adding Drouin to that mix gives the franchise a key contributor for at least the next six years.
That said, Price is now in his thirties, Weber is 32, their highest-paid forward (Tomas Plekanec) is 34, and four other blueliners (Jeff Petry, Schlemko, Jordie Benn and Streit) will be 30 by Christmas. The Habs are now looking like a team that has to win much sooner than later, and their depth in any given area isn’t the envy of their competitors. It’s difficult to envision them not making the playoffs, but they shouldn’t be considered a lock to repeat as division champs, and I don’t expect the Canadiens will enjoy a longer playoff run with this roster.
4. Ottawa Senators
Additions: Nate Thompson, C; Johnny Oduya, D
Deletions: Tommy Wingels, C; Viktor Stalberg, LW; Chris Neil, RW; Chris Kelly, C
Why I picked them where I picked them: Ottawa was one of the streakier teams in the league last season, posting two four-game losing skids and a five-game slide, but head coach Guy Boucher always found a way to correct course and get his players refocused. Because of that resiliency, the Senators wound up winning 44 games – the most for them since the 2009-10 campaign – and surprised more than a few observers by pushing their way to the Eastern Final before falling in seven games to the eventual-champion Penguins.
That cohesion was reason enough for Sens GM Pierre Dorion to keep his lineup relatively intact: the only newcomers this season are former Ducks center Nate Thompson and former Hawks blueliner Johnny Oduya, and veteran Sens Chris Neil and Chris Kelly were cut loose, as were mid-season trade acquisitions Tommy Wingels and Viktor Stalberg. What you saw last year in Ottawa is what you’re going to get to start the season, and that’s not a bad thing.
Indeed, when you employ arguably the game’s best defenseman in Erik Karlsson, a terrific veteran netminder in Craig Anderson, and a solid mix of young and experienced forwards, you’ve got enough with which to be in the thick of the playoff race. But it’s not going to be a cakewalk for the Sens to get back to the post-season – I’m not sure their defense corps could handle a major injury without serious and unpleasant ramifications – and it’s not unreasonable to see them fighting with the Panthers and Bruins for the final playoff spot in the East.
5. Florida Panthers
Additions: Evgeni Dadonov, LW; Radim Vrbata, RW; Micheal Haley, C, Bob Boughner, head coach
Deletions: Jussi Jokinen, F; Jonathan Marchessault, C; Jaromir Jagr, RW; Reilly Smith, RW; Thomas Vanek, LW; Michael Sgarbossa, C; Seth Griffith, C; Shawn Thornton, RW; Jakub Kindl, D; Tom Rowe, head coach
Why I picked them where I picked them: The Panthers were a huge disappointment last season, falling from first in the Atlantic in 2015-16 to sixth in the division and 14 points out of the final wild card berth. Part of that plummet can be attributed to injuries – Aleksander Barkov, Jonathan Huberdeau, Aaron Ekblad and Nick Bjugstad all missed significant time for one reason or another – but there were optics problems in the way head coach Gerard Gallant was fired, and Tom Rowe, his replacement, never got the group fully on track in the 61 games he was running things.
There were some curious moves made by Panthers brass this summer – most notably, the choice to allow leading scorer Jonathan Marchessault to be selected by Vegas in the expansion draft, and veteran star Jaromir Jagr, who had 16 goals and 46 points last year, was not re-signed – but GM Dale Tallon (now fully in control of the team once again) has a stable of talent that isn’t to sneer at, and he’s got a new head coach in former NHLer and Ontario League bench boss Bob Boughner, so fresh starts are the order of the day in South Florida, and that could be just what this franchise needs.
The Panthers also have more than $10 million in available cap space, and nobody should be surprised to see Tallon utilize it in trades if the team doesn’t start off well. As I mentioned in the Senators analysis, I think the Panthers will fight it out for a playoff spot and may edge out the Sens and/or Bruins to secure one, but a return to the very top of the Atlantic seems a jump too high after a season that ended with so much change.
6. Boston Bruins
Additions: Paul Postma, D
Deletions: Jimmy Hayes, RW; Dominic Moore, C; Colin Miller, D; Drew Stafford, RW; John-Michael Liles, D
Why I picked them where I picked them: For a while there, Bruins fans had become accustomed to their team being a front-of-the-line Cup contender that was destined for a deep playoff run year-in and year-out. That changed beginning in the fall of 2014, when the Boston team that finished first in the Atlantic the year prior suddenly fell to fifth in the division and failed to make the playoffs in either 2015 or 2016. Last year was a rebound of sorts, but don’t kid yourself – the Bruins finished with the same number of points as the final wild card berth team did, and they needed a late-season six-game win streak to get there. Then, they fell in six games to the Senators in the first round, and looked nothing like the dominant Bs of old.
Don’t take this to mean the hockey apocalypse is on the horizon in Boston. GM Don Sweeney and his staff have some gems – including blueliners Brandon Carlo and Charlie McAvoy, and winger Jake DeBrusk – they expect to perform at a high level in hockey’s top league. Unfortunately, there’s usually a price to be paid for all the seasons in which a team does a whole lot of winning, and the Bruins look like one that’s still in the early stages of paying that price.
With Zdeno Chara turning 41 in March, and with Tuukka Rask turning 31 in that same month, most of Boston’s best players are out of their twenties, and in a young man’s NHL, that’s a non-positive development. The Bruins have enough skill to stay out of the Eastern Conference’s basement, but they’re looking like a team that will be on the outside of the playoff picture if only one or two things don’t go their way – an injury here, or an extended losing skid there – and one that needs to focus even harder on their future.
7. Buffalo Sabres
Additions: Jason Pominville, RW; Benoit Pouliot, LW; Jacob Josefson, F; Marco Scandella, D; Nathan Beaulieu, D; Victor Antipin, D; Matt Tennyson, D; Chad Johnson, G; Phil Housley, head coach; Jason Botterill, GM
Deletions: Brian Gionta, RW; Marcus Foligno, LW; Cody Franson, D; Tyler Ennis, LW; William Carrier, LW; Dmitry Kulikov, D; Derek Grant, C; Anders Nilsson, G; Dan Bylsma, head coach; Tim Murray, GM
Why I picked them where I picked them: There hasn’t been a playoff game in Buffalo since 2011, and there hasn’t been a second-round playoff game since 2007. So you can understand why Sabres fans have had it with promises of future triumphs and eventual growth. But that’s precisely where the organization is after another distressing season and a full housecleaning with management. Now Jason Botterill is GM and Phil Housley is head coach (replacing Tim Murray and Dan Bylsma respectively), and a new period of evaluation and change has begun.
For the short term, at least, Botterill took a scalpel to the roster rather than a sledgehammer, making relatively minor moves that brought in secondary components Benoit Poulioit, Marco Scandella and Chad Johnson, and pushed out Brian Gionta, Marcus Foligno and Cody Franson. He’s clearly counting on a full season from burgeoning star – and who wouldn’t – as well as the type of massive year from winger Evander Kane that he hasn’t produced since his 30-goal, 57-point season with Winnipeg in 2011-12. But there simply isn’t enough top-end talent in the forward group, nor is there any real semblance of a high-performing defense corps, to move up the division and challenge for a playoff slot.
Sabres owners Terry and Kim Pegula have shown the willingness to spend money to bring a winner to Western New York, but they haven’t made choices that resulted in success. Perhaps it will come with this new management team, but it won’t come quickly, and it almost assuredly won’t come this season.
8. Detroit Red Wings
Additions: Trevor Daley, D; Luke Witkowski, D
Deletions: Drew Miller, LW
Why I picked them where I picked them: There’s something that feels unnatural about positioning the Red Wings as the last-place team in their division, but after a summer in which GM Ken Holland basically stood pat with a squad that won just 33 games – nine of them via shootout – that’s where we are. The Wings have been the gold standard for playoff consistency prior to the 2016-17 season, but sooner or later, the tentacles of the salary cap wrap around every organization’s net and commence with the squeezing. And the squeeze is on in Detroit.
If it’s tough on Wings fans, imagine how tough it must be on star forward and captain Henrik Zetterberg, who at age 36 has three seasons left on his contract. The problem for him and the franchise is, not only are they currently more than $3 million over the cap upper limit this year, they’re also committed to more than $62 million for 16 players in 2018-19. Extricating themselves from some of their onerous contracts should be priority one for Detroit management, but nobody will be doing Holland any favors in that regard.
The Wings have young players who’ll serve them well this year and beyond, but their current group isn’t close to a playoff contender, let alone a championship-calibre club. They’ll have a new arena to celebrate in Motown this season, but that’s very likely all they’ll have to celebrate.
Blogger •NHL Columnist • 
Join the Discussion:
»