Travis Yost: Random Thoughts

1st

So Montreal is offering Subban less money than noted superstars Matt Carle, Brooks Orpik, and Matt Niskanen.

I know it's just a starting point but wow...

On Subban:

His agent is Don Meehan and Newport Sports. I doubt he's getting bad advice. Subban has on many occasions has said he wants to be a lifer in Montreal and suggested he'd be willing to sign a contract that doesn't hinder Montreal's ability to ice a competitive team.

So Montreal is offering Subban less money than noted superstars Matt Carle, Brooks Orpik, and Matt Niskanen.

I know it's just a starting point but wow...
- ottsens12

Take a look at the difference between Nashville and Weber when they headed to arbitration. This happens EVERY SINGLE TIME.

I think too much is made of arbitration being an adversarial process that kills the relationship between player and team. Sure, it's a fight, but what do people think has been going on through the course of negotiating a contract?

A good agent will prepare and shield his client - "this part is just business and must be treated as completely separate from your relationship with the team". You're really just dealing in numbers at that point.

I'm curious about the Lehner situation. Would be nice to lock the man down for a few years.

So Montreal is offering Subban less money than noted superstars Matt Carle, Brooks Orpik, and Matt Niskanen.

I know it's just a starting point but wow...
- ottsens12

It's a game. Montreal gets it. Like most other teams, I guess. No way they believe he's even close to a $5.25MM player. They just set the bar so low that when the arbitrator asks them to raise it in a compromise, they'll find a middle that works out well for them.

I just can't believe Subban didn't touch $10MM in his ask. That's probably where I'd start if I was representing Subban.

On Subban:

His agent is Don Meehan and Newport Sports. I doubt he's getting bad advice. Subban has on many occasions has said he wants to be a lifer in Montreal and suggested he'd be willing to sign a contract that doesn't hinder Montreal's ability to ice a competitive team.



Take a look at the difference between Nashville and Weber when they headed to arbitration. This happens EVERY SINGLE TIME.
- BleedingHabs

I obviously agree. Highly doubt the bad advice part.

So Montreal is offering Subban less money than noted superstars Matt Carle, Brooks Orpik, and Matt Niskanen.

I know it's just a starting point but wow...
- ottsens12

Kind of tough to comparable RFA to UFA deals. I mean the offer's obviously a joke but there are better comparables, I'd say.

To start, Subban's better than Weber, and Weber's arb award this summer would've been something like $8.2MM adjusted. Pretty hilarious disparity there..

They need to include his number (76) into the contract just like Crosby (8.7m) and Karlsson (6.5mil). We know it won't be 7.6mil, unless they do 8 years x 7.6mil straight across.

Perhaps we'll see: 9,760,000 or 10,076,000 or something of the sort.

Maybe, maybe not. Subban might be the first NHL player to get a 10mil a year contract, to be the player who sets that bar, would not be surprised.

[quote=frenchgui]

It's funny looking at Subban against Karlsson, and how the teams handled it differently. Ottawa bit the bullet early, Montreal punted and had Subban at a great cost for a couple extra years, now they're going to get hit with the hammer in some capacity.

Basically comparable quality of players, yet two very different contract situations. I really think aside from those two, the only other comparable is Doughty. And maybe stretching it, Weber.

It's a game. Montreal gets it. Like most other teams, I guess. No way they believe he's even close to a $5.25MM player. They just set the bar so low that when the arbitrator asks them to raise it in a compromise, they'll find a middle that works out well for them.

I just can't believe Subban didn't touch $10MM in his ask. That's probably where I'd start if I was representing Subban.
- Travis Yost

It would be interesting to chart the correlation between the "ask" and the arbitration award. Might not be a situation where the result is right in the middle.

Also, bear in mind that this could be a bit of a PR move by PK's group. He makes a bit of $ from sponsorship, and it might be part of the plan to make him look reasonable, team-first kind of guy. This theory is a little bit of conjecture, but being perceived as not selfish (esp. with the perception of him in the past) might be in his best interests long term.

It would be interesting to chart the correlation between the "ask" and the arbitration award. Might not be a situation where the result is right in the middle.

Also, bear in mind that this could be a bit of a PR move by PK's group. He makes a bit of $ from sponsorship, and it might be part of the plan to make him look reasonable, team-first kind of guy. This theory is out there, but being perceived as not selfish (esp. with the perception of him in the past) might be in his best interests long term.
- sensano

It's basically always a midpoint (I used to have a long post up here on arb stuff that was 404'ed at some point in time), and in the rare event an arbitrator disagrees with one side and awards a big or small contract, hell breaks loose. So, there's also the fear of that ... arbitrators want to be in the middle.

Kind of tough to comparable RFA to UFA deals. I mean the offer's obviously a joke but there are better comparables, I'd say.

To start, Subban's better than Weber, and Weber's arb award this summer would've been something like $8.2MM adjusted. Pretty hilarious disparity there..
- Travis Yost

Come on now.

He's not better than Shea. There's a reason one guy was on the top pairing of the best olympic top 6 ever and one guy hardly played.

Subban will get $7.75 on a 2 year deal and then hit UFA and make MTL pay big time! Unless MTL wants to do a long term deal right now at $9.0-$9.5 per season then Subban should take his team friendly 2 year deal and then pry every penny out of the highest bidder in two summers time.

Come on now.

He's not better than Shea. There's a reason one guy was on the top pairing of the best olympic top 6 ever and one guy hardly played.
- TommyDeVito

I'm not saying Shea Weber isn't great. I am saying you're referencing the team that took Kunitz over Hall, so I'm not sure what the appeal means here.

I think I take Subban in 2014-2015 over Weber. Boxcars are pretty similar and we're talking about a Weber who is negative RelCorsi guy two years straight now.

I'm curious about the terms of the Lehner deal - as it may well shape Anderson's fortunes as well. By that I mean that if it's a 3-year deal for Lehner, you may see the team pursue nothing more than a 2-year extension for Anderson so that both contracts would expire in the same year. The question then is if that's as much as the team will commit, would Anderson sign that kind of deal, or pursue other options on the UFA market?

Either way, it would be nice to see a better year out of both goaltenders - hopefully the contract year will light a fire under Anderson, like it did after the Elliott trade.

In regard to Ottawa being at the bottom of the salary budget, they are also struggling on season ticket renewals. Cyril Leeder on TSN 1200 said fans are taking a wait and see approach to renewals. Clearly, fan base is fed up with Melnyk.

It's funny looking at Subban against Karlsson, and how the teams handled it differently. Ottawa bit the bullet early, Montreal punted and had Subban at a great cost for a couple extra years, now they're going to get hit with the hammer in some capacity.

Basically comparable quality of players, yet two very different contract situations. I really think aside from those two, the only other comparable is Doughty. And maybe stretching it, Weber.
- Travis Yost

Subban had maturity issues a few years ago, hence why the bridge contract. He was asked to work on a few things included his maturity. He will get his money, let the lawyers do their dance and he will get his fair share.

Who really cares? PK will get at least 7 million per season over a short term. Comparing his potential salary to guys who signed 2-3 years ago is silly. Salaries increase every year.

I'm curious about the terms of the Lehner deal - as it may well shape Anderson's fortunes as well. By that I mean that if it's a 3-year deal for Lehner, you may see the team pursue nothing more than a 2-year extension for Anderson so that both contracts would expire in the same year. The question then is if that's as much as the team will commit, would Anderson sign that kind of deal, or pursue other options on the UFA market?

Either way, it would be nice to see a better year out of both goaltenders - hopefully the contract year will light a fire under Anderson, like it did after the Elliott trade.
- khawk

I think the hope is that Lehner takes over the reigns this year so you can sign a cheaper back up than Anderson next summer. If Lehner plays well, there is no point of having two legit #1 goalies. If Lehner stumbles, not only do you consider extending Anderson, but you also consider the possibility of Lehner not being all that.

Who really cares? PK will get at least 7 million per season over a short term. Comparing his potential salary to guys who signed 2-3 years ago is silly. Salaries increase every year.
- Gord_Wilson_2.0

.....this is why we use adjusted contract comparables, specifically adjusted RFA contract comparables, and ideally adjusted RFA contract comparables who either settled short-term pre-arb or were awarded in arb.

I have Subban clocking in between the 9-10 mil average salary likely 6-8 years once the full extension is signed....hell of a player!

I have Subban clocking in between the 9-10 mil average salary likely 6-8 years once the full extension is signed....hell of a player!
- Upgrayedd

One has to think, how does the Toews & Kane contract extensions play in Subbans thought on what he's worth per year. I know he hasn't accomplished half of what they have in their careers but..

Looks like Montreal should've bit the bullet 2 years ago & gave him the same deal dion Phaneuf got

I'd like to see Lehner at 3 years 2.3 - 2.5 per, keeping him at RFA like Yost mentioned..

In regard to Ottawa being at the bottom of the salary budget, they are also struggling on season ticket renewals. Cyril Leeder on TSN 1200 said fans are taking a wait and see approach to renewals. Clearly, fan base is fed up with Melnyk.
- spatso

No surprise here , if ryan doesn't stay things are gonna hit rock bottom
Very quickly