Sens Writer: Guest Writer: What Now Senators?

They are 100% resigning Kelly if he's not being crazy and asking for a lot of money. Martin loves the kid and he'll be part of team in an advisory role next year. Teammates love him too.

Thanks for the blog.

I completely agree with your take on Brannstrom:
I’m not a fan of horribly undersized D, even though Brannstrom has impressed me with his hard work, steady improvement and superior puck movement.

As for off-season moves, I expect a move to add a middle 6 forward with size that plays a 200 foot game, a big change on defence to move 1 of Chycrun/Chabot to get a more defensively capable dman and a move on goaltending.

I should have prefaced this article by saying, "If the Sens doing nothing major, this is the bare minimum of what they should do...."

And by something major, I mean trading one of Chabot or Chycrhun. And maybe one of the Goalies.

Nothing of what the new ownership group has done so far indicates they are major risk takers.

Another bad season next year may force their hand.

Excellent write up.
Thank you for providing us with thoughtful commentary on this team.

I don't disagree with anything I read there.


I love this core but are they...."the ones"? Have we given them enough time to show it? Some nights they look like world beaters. Other nights it's just a complete calamity. Like 10 minute stretches against Carolina or Boston. And there appears to be some kind of scouting "word on the street" that if you blitz them early with every thing you've got you'll get a goal in the first 3 minutes. I'd love to see a stat. If there was a parlay bet for a goal against in the first 3 minutes the Sens are paying.


My offseason list starts thusly:

A GOOD DAMN COACH---one we know will be good. Not hope (Chris Kelly). I want Torts, I want Berube, McLellan. I don't care. Overpay. Karlsson 50% retained and we'll take Sullivan and his salary (new deal that starts next year) and give Pitt nothing. That's the deal.

If we aren't picking top 3 I want that pick traded for whatever the team thinks it needs the most. Pooly and Staois need to shine here. Prove you knowledge. Is it a right shot D? Is it experienced forward help? Whatever it is trade that pick. We don't need it. We need next year success. Success from coaching, from better players, better structure.

Excellent write up.
Thank you for providing us with thoughtful commentary on this team.

I don't disagree with anything I read there.


I love this core but are they...."the ones"? Have we given them enough time to show it? Some nights they look like world beaters. Other nights it's just a complete calamity. Like 10 minute stretches against Carolina or Boston. And there appears to be some kind of scouting "word on the street" that if you blitz them early with every thing you've got you'll get a goal in the first 3 minutes. I'd love to see a stat. If there was a parlay bet for a goal against in the first 3 minutes the Sens are paying.


My offseason list starts thusly:

A GOOD DAMN COACH---one we know will be good. Not hope (Chris Kelly). I want Torts, I want Berube, McLellan. I don't care. Overpay. Karlsson 50% retained and we'll take Sullivan and his salary (new deal that starts next year) and give Pitt nothing. That's the deal.

If we aren't picking top 3 I want that pick traded for whatever the team thinks it needs the most. Pooly and Staois need to shine here. Prove you knowledge. Is it a right shot D? Is it experienced forward help? Whatever it is trade that pick. We don't need it. We need next year success. Success from coaching, from better players, better structure.
- Octavarium

I know it was boring jargon, but Staois is right that there could be some interesting names out there after the playoffs in terms of coaches...hell maybe players.

Looking at the defense, barring injury and trade again:

Sanderson – Zub
Chabot – UFA
Chychrun – JBD/Kleven

The glaring spot is the RD position we’ve needed all year. Plenty of UFA candidates – Walker, May, DeMelo, Pesce, Dumba, Tanev – but the problem is that RD is a position it seems that EVERY NHL team is looking for this coming off-season.

My priority in OTT would be moving one Chabot/Chychrun for an equivalent RD. I know RD are less common, but that LD position is insanely stacked.

My offseason list starts thusly:

A GOOD DAMN COACH---one we know will be good. Not hope (Chris Kelly). I want Torts, I want Berube, McLellan. I don't care. Overpay. Karlsson 50% retained and we'll take Sullivan and his salary (new deal that starts next year) and give Pitt nothing. That's the deal.
- Octavarium

32/32 NHL GMs would hire a hitman to come whack Staois and his entire family for such an insultingly stupid offer.

Call it what you want.
The only people who would even consider taking Karlsson off your hands is Ottawa. But it's pretty much going to be for free. You'll pay us to take him. You're dreaming in the old igloo if you think there will be anything of substance going the other way. Yes he has value, but only in Ottawa....and not much more than nostalgic value.

And if you're so high on him. Then keep him. Ottawa doesn't "need" EK65 just a certain portion of the fanbase would appreciate another season or too of him.

I should have prefaced this article by saying, "If the Sens doing nothing major, this is the bare minimum of what they should do...."

And by something major, I mean trading one of Chabot or Chycrhun. And maybe one of the Goalies.

Nothing of what the new ownership group has done so far indicates they are major risk takers.

Another bad season next year may force their hand.
- GrimmdaGoalie

Nice work with the blog - much appreciated. I was just going to apologize for the delay in making a new post, but I'm up at Whistler with my family for the week. Will try to get one worked out by the weekend.

Agree with most of your points as well - personally I don't see any chance of them starting next season with both Chabot and Chychrun in the lineup. But that trade has to return them something critical in return - either a RHD, starting G, or high-end middle-6 forward. At least one of their first round picks has to be in play as well, because the solution to their roster deficiencies can't wait 2-3 years to manifest.

One key point I would add is something GM Staios mentioned in a recent TSN interview, which is that their young players have suffered from the burden of expectations, and that growth needs to happen from within if the results are going to change. The emotional fragility of the team's core is palpable, and they should probably have some of the core players (esp. Stutzle) work with a team psychologist to help build up mental resilience. Everyone has their off nights, but the young leaders of this team have to find ways of not lapsing into slumps and multi-game loss streaks so easily.

Call it what you want.
The only people who would even consider taking Karlsson off your hands is Ottawa. But it's pretty much going to be for free. You'll pay us to take him. You're dreaming in the old igloo if you think there will be anything of substance going the other way. Yes he has value, but only in Ottawa....and not much more than nostalgic value.

And if you're so high on him. Then keep him. Ottawa doesn't "need" EK65 just a certain portion of the fanbase would appreciate another season or too of him.
- Octavarium

Name the available RD you think are equal or superior value to Karlsson at $5m or cheaper. The deal would be similar to how PIT got him; Ottawa would trade bad cap hit back to Pittsburgh. A package with Korpisalo would be one guess. Maybe Norris if LTIRetirement is the expectation and OTT ownership doesn't want to hold him. Karlsson at 50% retained gets a ton of interest because he is still a capable 1RD. You must be lobotomized to think Dubas would just give him away and ownership would approve $15m in dead money for nothing. You also must have zero clue in how PIT got him from SJS (Hint: They were the only team willing to take a large % of his cap hit). At about $7-$8m he fair value. Moreover, I'm not confident on where he would waive which could destroy his trade value and also completely remove OTT from consideration as he likely wants only top contenders and not a team even worse than PIT.

Thanks much for the blog Grimm!

This team is such a an enigma, really don't comprehend why they have been so bad. We used to forgive the goalies a lot early in the season, pointing fingers at structure, but I think there's consensus now we have two overpaid mediocre goalies. Any conversation of trading Korpisalo away with his term and numbers right now is a rose tinted pipe dream, unless it is for another overpaid goalie with term in the doghouse (IE Elvis or Campbell). You might get somebody to bite on Forsberg with a sweetener attached, and that's the move I expect this summer.

What I really don't want this team doing is throwing away futures. The team is bottom 5 in the league right now, and multiple analysts have Ottawa's prospect pool in the league bottom. Those are not 'slight tweak' 'win now' realities we are working with. New owner, new office, new slate. Chychrun for an Ullmark or Saros makes sense. It is a huge overpay for a G which are typically low value, but it's absolutely necessary if this team wants to compete. Korpi rides along as an expensive backup. Then sign an FA RD like Demelo.

And lastly: DRAFT. Dorion got so obsessed with keeping his job and impressing new owners he threw way too much at the wall, and his biggest moves didn't stick. We have been hemorrhaging draft picks to fix mistakes rather than drafting talent and trading talent to comp problematic contracts. A wealth of talent and good drafting lets you do what Carolina or Winnipeg have done - trade prospects you know you won't need instead of picks which help replenish your cupboard. Two of the best teams in the league coupled with two of the deepest pools - that's what small market Ottawa should aspire to and try to emulate. Trading away more high futures won't be good long run. After this trade deadline I am wondering if Staios has the temerity and initiative to properly manage this team, but I'll give him a year's grace period before breathing too hard down his neck.

Does anybody have any information or idea what additional $$$ or HR Andlauer has plugged into amateur scouting? We need our picks to hit.

They are 100% resigning Kelly if he's not being crazy and asking for a lot of money. Martin loves the kid and he'll be part of team in an advisory role next year. Teammates love him too.
- PogBoi

For sure Kelly will get resigned - he has been a whipping boy in the past but this year it is unwarranted, he's been good value and his effort is visible. It should be under 1M per *2 - otherwise greener pastures.

Thoughts on off season trades below?

To Philadelphia: Josh Norris, Jakob Chychrun
To Ottawa: Sean Couturier, Oliver Bonk, + pick/prospect

To Anaheim: Joonas Korpisalo
To Ottawa: John Gibson

Thoughts on off season trades below?

To Philadelphia: Josh Norris, Jakob Chychrun
To Ottawa: Sean Couturier, Oliver Bonk, + pick/prospect

To Anaheim: Joonas Korpisalo
To Ottawa: John Gibson
- AlfieisKing

I do like how you're thinking - I bet PHI would jump all over Norris for Couts straight up. Both injury prone, falling out of favor with their teams. Problem is they're basically the same money, but Couturier is signed until he's 38 (!) which, with his injury concern, is a real red flag IMO. Norris and Chychrun also strike me as players Tortorella would hate lol.

The Gibson deal personally I really like because why not - but for whatever incomprehensible reason people still seem to believe Gibson has meaningful value. He doesn't, he's been horrible for ages and he's paid way too much money. Same remaining duration as Korpi - if I was GM of Anaheim, I might bite just for the salary differential, but likely Verbeek is also hearing this chatter about Gibson still being viable, so unsure just how realistic it might be. Biggest wrinkle is Gibson's 10 team NTC - dollars to donuts Gibson for sure has Ottawa on that list.

The Gibson deal personally I really like because why not - but for whatever incomprehensible reason people still seem to believe Gibson has meaningful value. He doesn't, he's been horrible for ages and he's paid way too much money. Same remaining duration as Korpi - if I was GM of Anaheim, I might bite just for the salary differential, but likely Verbeek is also hearing this chatter about Gibson still being viable, so unsure just how realistic it might be. Biggest wrinkle is Gibson's 10 team NTC - dollars to donuts Gibson for sure has Ottawa on that list.
- Bartacus

I find it shocking any fan that pays attention at all would think Gibson carries any value whatsoever. Mediocre at best and no better than the backup goalie for the last half decade. But like you said, I'm pretty sure Anaheim had discussions with Toronto briefly and it was shut down because Gibson has all Canadian teams on his blocked list.

@Bartacus - Very good points on Sean Couturier. Age is certainly in favor of Josh Norris. I think there is a deal to be made, I also think Oliver Bonk for Jakob Chychrun in a deal makes a ton of sense (especially with Jamie Drysdale coming over and needing a more veteran - that can play on left side)

I agree on Gibson. The difference between John Gibson and Joonas Korpisalo is experience and the ability for John to show he can be a #1 goalie. Before this season, Korpisalo only has about 1-2 years of #1 goalie status, and even that is debatable. Gibson is about to hit the 51 games played mark or more for the 7th time this season. He is still only 30 and seems to need a big change of scenery.

That said, good point @jfkst1 - likely he doesn't waive to come to Canada. He has a 10 team no trade list. I think picking all Canadian teams OR teams that may take a chance to trade for him (wouldn't need to put VAN or WIN)

Name the available RD you think are equal or superior value to Karlsson at $5m or cheaper. The deal would be similar to how PIT got him; Ottawa would trade bad cap hit back to Pittsburgh. A package with Korpisalo would be one guess. Maybe Norris if LTIRetirement is the expectation and OTT ownership doesn't want to hold him. Karlsson at 50% retained gets a ton of interest because he is still a capable 1RD. You must be lobotomized to think Dubas would just give him away and ownership would approve $15m in dead money for nothing. You also must have zero clue in how PIT got him from SJS (Hint: They were the only team willing to take a large % of his cap hit). At about $7-$8m he fair value. Moreover, I'm not confident on where he would waive which could destroy his trade value and also completely remove OTT from consideration as he likely wants only top contenders and not a team even worse than PIT.
- jfkst1

The key being "available".

RD of certain age and makeup are hard to come by.

And if we are wasting draft or player capital to get a RD, like we would have to get EK65 or similar, my vote is John Marino from NJ. To think we could have had him when he was a FA for less than '$4.5 mill.

FOUR sens players in front of the net and yet its the STL player that gets the puck and in the net it goes

The key being "available".

RD of certain age and makeup are hard to come by.

And if we are wasting draft or player capital to get a RD, like we would have to get EK65 or similar, my vote is John Marino from NJ. To think we could have had him when he was a FA for less than '$4.5 mill.
- GrimmdaGoalie

Except Marino was an unsigned draftee and never went to UFA. He was rumored to want to go to a US team and probably has no interest in playing on a Canadian team given he refused to sign with EDM who was guaranteeing him playing time on the NHL roster. Also Karlsson at $5m at least right now is a vastly superior value player than Marino at $4.4m and I do like Marino as a 2RD, but he isn't gonna play 25+ minutes a game consistently.

Ottawa Senators - 60 points - 14 games remaining

@ NJD / VS EDM / @BUF / VS CHI / @WPG
@ MIN / VS FLA / VS NJD / @ WSH / @ FLA
@ TBL / VS MTL / VS NYR / @BOS

The games in bold are ones they have a chance at winning. If Sens win all their games, that puts them at 68 points. IF Montreal gets 8-10 points in their remaining 14 games and Arizona gets 9 points in their remaining 13 games (this one seems more difficult) then it would be very likely Sens could finish 5th worst. Fingers crossed*

Except Marino was an unsigned draftee and never went to UFA. He was rumored to want to go to a US team and probably has no interest in playing on a Canadian team given he refused to sign with EDM who was guaranteeing him playing time on the NHL roster. Also Karlsson at $5m at least right now is a vastly superior value player than Marino at $4.4m and I do like Marino as a 2RD, but he isn't gonna play 25+ minutes a game consistently.
- jfkst1

Very interesting name to bring up in Marino

Would we be able to appreciate the humor if both Detroit and Buffalo made the playoffs or are we too close to it.

Would we be able to appreciate the humor if both Detroit and Buffalo made the playoffs or are we too close to it.
- david22

Wondering if our goalies will ever post a 0.900 or above again.

What is the answer going into next season with these duds. Do we buy out Forsberg and send Korpisalo to the ECHL for the remainder of his contract and just eat his salary?