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Forums :: Blog World :: Mike Augello: Leafs Top 40 Prospects - #24
Author Message
GalacticStone
Tampa Bay Lightning
Location: U Jealous of my Meteor
Joined: 01.29.2013

Sep 16 @ 1:44 PM ET
Would have loved to have been on the marketing team working on this campaign.
- Canada Cup

I took the vaccine and now my microchip picks up morning talk radio from China.
The Law
Toronto Maple Leafs
Joined: 01.29.2008

Sep 16 @ 1:46 PM ET
I think they want to push a real competition between the two. I don’t expect both to be with the team next year.
- Canada Cup


I don't disagree. My concern would be that if Campbell wins the battle to be #1 it's going to be hard to move Mrazek and his term/$$ next summer. That's why I was surprised by the 3 yr term.
dmnted
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Space for Rent
Joined: 08.30.2006

Sep 16 @ 1:47 PM ET
so it's official

Sabre and Leafs in an outdoor in Hamilton on the 13th of March.

But in Hamilton!!!??
bobbyisno1
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: I'm excited to see that
Joined: 08.28.2010

Sep 16 @ 1:47 PM ET
okay
- BINGO!

Everybody is so happy that you agree.
Canada Cup
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Not here to sell jerseys , ON
Joined: 07.06.2007

Sep 16 @ 1:48 PM ET
That's awesome. This is the kind of poop us old guys clinging to our youth should be talking about.

How to have fun.

I've been begging my wife to let me build a half-pipe in my backyard. She hates the idea ....mostly b/c my backyard is 16' wide.

- The Law


I should set it up for walking the dog. “Stepping off the sidewalk now. Navigating a tricky bit of broken pavement. poop, it’s the nasty Jack Russell.”
Canada Cup
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Not here to sell jerseys , ON
Joined: 07.06.2007

Sep 16 @ 1:49 PM ET
so it's official

Sabre and Leafs in an outdoor in Hamilton on the 13th of March.

But in Hamilton!!!??

- dmnted


The Paris of Hamilton
joel878
Joined: 06.13.2009

Sep 16 @ 1:50 PM ET
I was a little shocked they gave him 3 years. I figured they'd land a 2-3M back up type for a year or two.

I have to think they like his fancy stats. Apparently the stats show he's great at stopping high quality stuff but pretty mediocre with everything else.

- The Law


Without looking at said fancy stats to confirm... That sounds a lot like Fred. 🤔
Monkeypunk
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Whenever, wherever, ON
Joined: 06.27.2013

Sep 16 @ 1:56 PM ET
This is what I have heard and read as well.

Which seems kind of stupid. Who cares if he makes a great save if he turns around and gives up a stinker.

But we will see, I didn't think a middling goalie would cost that much in terms of dollars and term - but Freddie got 4.5/yr so...I guess Mrazek's deal is fair value.

- Leafs43


In August I had extracted a bunch of goalie stats for the past several years from moneypuck and plopped them into Excel to take a look at some of the numbers. The HD, MD and LD stats all require a certain amount of faith - like on average these will even out for everyone in the way the stats are accumulated (i.e., sometimes an HD opportunity is incorrectly attributed - but you can figure on average this will happen to everyone at about the same rate).

I took that data and took their LD, MD and HD save percentages and compared that with the way the Leafs give up LD, MD and HD opportunities for all goalies using their stats for the past 3 years.

The best goalies for the Leafs would be (using GSAA / 60):

1. Andrei Vasilevskiy
2. Robin Lehner
3. Connor Hellebuyck
4. Juuse Saros
5. Ben Bishop
6. Tuukka Rask
7. Jack Campbell
8. Darcy Kuemper
9. Jaroslav Halak
10. Marc-Andre Fleury
11. Petr Mrazek
12. Jordan Binnington
13. Philipp Grubauer
14. Thatcher Demko
15. Anton Khudobin


So it's not too shabby if this approach is appropriate.

For the record, Andersen was 25th out of 50 qualified (assumed a minimum of 60 starts over 3 years).
dmnted
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Space for Rent
Joined: 08.30.2006

Sep 16 @ 1:57 PM ET
Hi folks. As the season gets closer, I am starting to get back into the mindset of following stats and looking at other teams, especially other teams that I have an interest in, like the Leafs.

So, after being occupied with Tampa's off-season cap crisis, I finally took a good look at the Leafs roster for this coming season. One thing really really jumps out at me.

Are you folks comfortable rolling with Mrazek as your starter? I think we've seen this movie before.

- GalacticStone

For me no.
I hoping he proofs me wrong

Zezel
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: God Leafs Satan The Oneness, ON
Joined: 02.28.2011

Sep 16 @ 1:58 PM ET
That's awesome. This is the kind of poop us old guys clinging to our youth should be talking about.

How to have fun.

I've been begging my wife to let me build a half-pipe in my backyard. She hates the idea ....mostly b/c my backyard is 16' wide.

- The Law


Duuuude yesssss build a (frank)ing half-pipe

FAT OLLIES TO TAIL SLIDE REVERT
Canada Cup
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Not here to sell jerseys , ON
Joined: 07.06.2007

Sep 16 @ 2:01 PM ET
I don't disagree. My concern would be that if Campbell wins the battle to be #1 it's going to be hard to move Mrazek and his term/$$ next summer. That's why I was surprised by the 3 yr term.
- The Law


I guess if he sucks badly he’d be hard to move but they brought him in cause they think he’ll be good. If they keep him, a few years is a good thing.
Monkeypunk
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Whenever, wherever, ON
Joined: 06.27.2013

Sep 16 @ 2:01 PM ET
Duuuude yesssss build a (frank)ing half-pipe

FAT OLLIES TO TAIL SLIDE REVERT

- Zezel


I put this into Google Translate to translate English to English, and it said, "Pat Ollis to Tile Slide Reward".

I'm not sure, but I think you made Google have a stroke.
Cush29
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Who Owzzzzz da' Chiefs?, ON
Joined: 12.22.2014

Sep 16 @ 2:04 PM ET
so it's official

Sabre and Leafs in an outdoor in Hamilton on the 13th of March.

But in Hamilton!!!??

- dmnted


Ewwwww and as this is the Sabres "home outdoor game" how pissed off would you be as a Sabres fan?

I went to the World Jr. Canada / US game at New Era Stadium and it was awesome, silly they wouldn't just have the game in -allo.
Zezel
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: God Leafs Satan The Oneness, ON
Joined: 02.28.2011

Sep 16 @ 2:05 PM ET
I put this into Google Translate to translate English to English, and it said, "Pat Ollis to Tile Slide Reward".

I'm not sure, but I think you made Google have a stroke.

- Monkeypunk

Lol

They don't have a Skateboard to English option?
PatC80
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: I would never let my children play hockey. The risk of getting drafted by Edmonton is too high", ON
Joined: 08.11.2011

Sep 16 @ 2:12 PM ET
You're going to be pleasantly surprised by Mrazek.

I hope. The platoon thing doesn't always work great for him. Typically it seems like the heavier his workload the better he plays. Tends to fall asleep if he's not busy.

- BINGO!


I could see Keefe going to Mrazek, the first chance he gets, whether it's a Campbell injury, or he's struggling..
Signed Mrazek for three years, so they'll take every chance they get to give him the starters job
Monkeypunk
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Whenever, wherever, ON
Joined: 06.27.2013

Sep 16 @ 2:17 PM ET
I could see Keefe going to Mrazek, the first chance he gets, whether it's a Campbell injury, or he's struggling..
Signed Mrazek for three years, so they'll take every chance they get to give him the starters job

- PatC80


We'll see. I think modern sports analytics are strongly suggesting that a goalie tandem that splits the workload around 40 games apiece is the most optimal. Obviously if one outplays the other it skews those numbers a little, but I think the Leafs are hoping to go that route.

I'll admit that I'm more traditional myself - I like a reliable starter that you can go to 55 - 60 times / year that you know will also carry you through the playoffs, but sports science disagrees. I think the Leafs are more oriented towards sports science.
PatC80
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: I would never let my children play hockey. The risk of getting drafted by Edmonton is too high", ON
Joined: 08.11.2011

Sep 16 @ 2:19 PM ET
We'll see. I think modern sports analytics are strongly suggesting that a goalie tandem that splits the workload around 40 games apiece is the most optimal. Obviously if one outplays the other it skews those numbers a little, but I think the Leafs are hoping to go that route.

I'll admit that I'm more traditional myself - I like a reliable starter that you can go to 55 - 60 times / year that you know will also carry you through the playoffs, but sports science disagrees. I think the Leafs are more oriented towards sports science.

- Monkeypunk



In a perfect scenario, both Campbell and Mrazek stay healthy and split the work load 50/50, but it's the Leafs.. That won't happen.. Either Campbell or Mrazek will get injured the first week of the regular season.


Scabeh
Montreal Canadiens
Location: The Slovakian Jagr, QC
Joined: 02.25.2007

Sep 16 @ 2:24 PM ET
I could see Keefe going to Mrazek, the first chance he gets, whether it's a Campbell injury, or he's struggling..
Signed Mrazek for three years, so they'll take every chance they get to give him the starters job

- PatC80


I'm not the biggest Mrazek fan.... never thought he was a strength for Carolina.

He's a solid backup though... which means if the Leafs are going to need Campbell to be their "1A".


So it could work, but I'm not 100% convinced in the Leafs goaltending just yet.
joel878
Joined: 06.13.2009

Sep 16 @ 2:26 PM ET
I'm not the biggest Mrazek fan.... never thought he was a strength for Carolina.

He's a solid backup though... which means if the Leafs are going to need Campbell to be their "1A".


So it could work, but I'm not 100% convinced in the Leafs goaltending just yet.

- Scabeh


The more pressing concern for me is the bar it sets.

So if plays out as you just said it needs to play out... And Mrazek is at 3.8... Does that mean it's gonna cost 5+ to keep Campbell next year?
Canada Cup
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Not here to sell jerseys , ON
Joined: 07.06.2007

Sep 16 @ 2:29 PM ET
The more pressing concern for me is the bar it sets.

So if plays out as you just said it needs to play out... And Mrazek is at 3.8... Does that mean it's gonna cost 5+ to keep Campbell next year?

- joel878


If they’re both good and Campbell wants $5, keep Mr. Z and send Jack on his way.
PatC80
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: I would never let my children play hockey. The risk of getting drafted by Edmonton is too high", ON
Joined: 08.11.2011

Sep 16 @ 2:29 PM ET
I'm not the biggest Mrazek fan.... never thought he was a strength for Carolina.

He's a solid backup though... which means if the Leafs are going to need Campbell to be their "1A".


So it could work, but I'm not 100% convinced in the Leafs goaltending just yet.

- Scabeh



had some solid numbers in Carolina and put up decent numbers in Detroit. If he stays along his career average of a 2.60GAA and .911 save %, I'll be happy
Fakepartofme
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Living rent free... in your head, ON
Joined: 09.20.2010

Sep 16 @ 2:48 PM ET
Can't wait for Dvorak to surpass Mitch again.
- Scabeh

4 pucks over the glass in a playoff series?
I think he can do it
The Law
Toronto Maple Leafs
Joined: 01.29.2008

Sep 16 @ 2:51 PM ET
Duuuude yesssss build a (frank)ing half-pipe

FAT OLLIES TO TAIL SLIDE REVERT

- Zezel


Yessss. I have 3 teenage boys ...none of them ride.
senstroll
Location: Leafs AAV Champs, ON
Joined: 02.22.2008

Sep 16 @ 2:52 PM ET
4 pucks over the glass in a playoff series?
I think he can do it

- Fakepartofme


ha
Fakepartofme
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Living rent free... in your head, ON
Joined: 09.20.2010

Sep 16 @ 2:54 PM ET
I'm not the biggest Mrazek fan.... never thought he was a strength for Carolina.

He's a solid backup though... which means if the Leafs are going to need Campbell to be their "1A".


So it could work, but I'm not 100% convinced in the Leafs goaltending just yet.

- Scabeh

As of today, leafs goaltending has taking a slight step back but hat could easily change. Mrazek is not better than andy right now....but hes cheaper. So it is what it is.
Can Campbell continue his incredible reg season run? I think he'll come back to earth but will be good. Just not over the top good like his numbers suggested for that 10 game stretch.
But i will say this say, it was time for Andy to go.
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