A guy on TSN predicted Seattle takes Rubstov. Honestly, if i were them id take all low priced guys, then makes deals for picks to trade for the higher priced guys. Should be interesting how it plays out
- bradster

That would be a weird pick as there’s zero experience

Actually, I was precisely addressing (making the best of) the "small sample" issue by 'smoothing'. Just google the two terms and you will find zillions of references. Essentially, you lop off the tails and re-normalize.

EDIT:

Here is a little explanation/justification, the logic of which is fairly straightforward. Think about why the "small sample" issue is a problem. It is because aberrant values may disproportionately sway the mean. In the same way that including Bill Gates' income may disproportionately sway the median income of any group of individuals.

There are now two possibilities. Either those aberrant values were actually not so aberrant. Or they are so. Unfortunately, there is no way to know without further data gathering, which is presumably not an option (else it would have been undertaken).

So, what do you do? Well, you choose the one which is likelier to produce the lesser evil. If you have a part of the small sample that is significantly an outlier, then chances are higher it is in fact an outlier than it is not.

By lopping it off, you risk lopping off something un-aberrant and relevant. But that is less likely than it being aberrant. Off course the more you want to lop off, and the less aberrant the values, the riskier the undertaking becomes, so such pruning should be done only of extremities and as minimally as possible. It should also be borne in mind that this is far from a solution that solves the small sample problem.

It is however, established statistical practice.
- PT21

This really just doesn’t deserve a response. You are simply biased. Everyone makes excuses for their bias, but the length that you go to talk your way into justifying it is really a riot.

That would be a weird pick as there’s zero experience
- Jup16

Totally, but really if you are taking 30 guys, gotta take a few that are still developing, cant take all starters.

Haven't back read so I apologize in advance if has be posted.

Those wanting Ristolainen the asking price is a NHL ready prospect and a 2nd.

Haven't back read so I apologize in advance if has be posted.

Those wanting Ristolainen the asking price is a NHL ready prospect and a 2nd.
- Pelle31Forever

I wouldnt mind him, but would want an extension before i trade for him, and before he has an awesome year. Prefer Larsson first though

Haven't back read so I apologize in advance if has be posted.

Those wanting Ristolainen the asking price is a NHL ready prospect and a 2nd.
- Pelle31Forever

Hope they don't trade away Desnoyers

Lol at taking the games Coots played against the penguins out of the equation. You’re showing your true colors.
- Ftown19125

I believe Couturier and Bergie are comparable players. I said so in my first response to Bill. I disagree with SMS about them being galaxies apart.

But there is merit in looking again at a small sample set where 5% of the data is producing 27% of the score.

Take Mika Z's stats this year. Would it be misleading to point out that a huge fraction of his points came against us when we were floundering?

This really just doesn’t deserve a response. You are simply biased. Everyone makes excuses for their bias, but the length that you go to talk your way into justifying it is really a riot.


- NC Flyers Fan

😃😃😃😃😃

This really just doesn’t deserve a response. You are simply biased. Everyone makes excuses for their bias, but the length that you go to talk your way into justifying it is really a riot.


- NC Flyers Fan

bloviation at its finest

Haven't back read so I apologize in advance if has be posted.

Those wanting Ristolainen the asking price is a NHL ready prospect and a 2nd.
- Pelle31Forever

cf is ready to deal 2 firsts and Forrester

get her done cf!!

Couturier 1.01 goals per 60 mins with game within 1 goal (ahead by 1, trailing by 1 or tied) over the past 3 seasons.

Patrice Bergeron: 1.02

Wow, Bergy's really far ahead there.

Bergy's actually less clutch than both of his linemates. Pastrnak and Marchand are quite a ways ahead of him.
- Tomahawk

Are you guys insane?

Pavel Datsyuk once owned the Selke trophy and I mean owned it. Zetterberg his teammate would go up against Datsyuk. I live in the Detroit area. Zetterberg was a 40 goal scorer and put up large numbers. Bergeron and Couturier are just the best we have right now and Bergeron is better. It all begins at the faceoff dot and Couturier is good but Bergeron is better. The line you bring up, just might be the most dominant line in hockey. Couturier needs Patrick Bergeron to retire or hope he gets hurt every season because Bergeron is better than Sean Couturier.

I don’t enjoy watching Boston go deep in the playoffs every year but they go deep because of that top line with Bergeron in the middle.

bloviation at its finest
- corduroy

Fascinating

We’re bored enough with an expansion draft we’re arguing about whether coots is great or not… is that what’s going on in this forum? 🤔
- Jup16

That’s been going on for about 5 years now lol

Haven't back read so I apologize in advance if has be posted.

Those wanting Ristolainen the asking price is a NHL ready prospect and a 2nd.
- Pelle31Forever

I like Ristolainen but that’s a bit steep considering he only has a year left on his deal.

A guy on TSN predicted Seattle takes Rubstov. Honestly, if i were them id take all low priced guys, then makes deals for picks to trade for the higher priced guys. Should be interesting how it plays out
- bradster

That would be strange .A guy predicted that on Ek's board 2 days ago. Glak18 set him straight.

That’s been going on for about 5 years now lol
- hereticpride

Ha.

Part of the problem with predicting Kraken picks is no one really knows what they plan to do. With other teams, you have well documented needs. With them, are they going to emulate the Vegas model? Play the long game? Ask for sweeteners?

If I am Francis, I at least try to bluff Bergevin and say we are picking Price unless there are sweeteners for others.

Patrice Bergeron is a pretty exceptional player....being able to be a point per game player and a top shutdown forward is something a select few can claim...same for Coots. I feel you are downplaying this point. Both play on the top line of their respective teams for a reason. Not taking away from Eichel's skill (he has plenty of it), but he hasn't been able to elevate his line mates and team.
- Sublime55

But Bergeron isn't a PPG player.

New blog.

This was the blog the day after Chuck Fletcher spoke on Patrick's situation in Sept. 2019.

https://www.hockeybuzz.com/blog.php?post_id=101635
- bmeltzer

😆 guess Fletcher connected the dots a long time ago. He used actual information from specialists. Not conspiracy theories.

It’s a none story.

This was the blog the day after Chuck Fletcher spoke on Patrick's situation in Sept. 2019.

https://www.hockeybuzz.com/blog.php?post_id=101635
- bmeltzer

😆 guess Fletcher connected the dots a long time ago. He used actual information from specialists. Not conspiracy theories.

It’s a none story.

I agree completely about your first para. This has nothing to do with being medically trained. Indeed, if a doctor told me otherwise, I would be suspicious.

A lot of people here are worth reading. Apart from BM (who we all know is really the hologram produced by MJL), I am constantly learning from guys like Tomahawk, Dubc55, you, and several others in non Flyers threads, and many people, even MJL, on occasion (nowadays when someone else quotes him).

Iotw, It's not the opinions per se that I find lacking. It's the sheer inflexibility of opinions when presented with contrary logic. With 30 years of teaching up and down the spectrum, from voluntary teaching in the horror that is Philly high schools, to minority adult students who have never had formal training of even the most rudimentary algebra, to whizkids who move ahead of you within minutes of the class, I have never, ever, ever encountered a group of people as inflexible as HB posters. I had no idea until I started being more than a casual poster since last year.
- PT21

Self awareness is a very important skill to learn. Here is where you go wrong. HB posters aren't inflexible. They're just inflexible to you. Any idea why?

Ofc you should do it for the other guy too. But he has a lot larger sample set. Pruning will not affect it as much.

Btw, off topic, but you are the guy, last summer, who first brought up the issue of the deaths in nursing homes caused by Covid in NY under the Cuomo regime. At that time, I did not know. You were on to something, and it is a real shame the issue is not getting more publicity because there is considerable evidence now that what happened was a massacre.

I don't want to veer the board even further away from hockey so I am not getting into this more, but I did want to shout out an acknowledgement.
- PT21

The Cuomo nursing home murder debacle was common knowledge back then to anyone who didn't only get information from main stream media sources.

If Buffalo is trying to sell Risto, and the asking price is a 2nd and prospect, does 2nd and Rubstov get a deal done? Rather him than O'Brien. I am not high on either of those 2 guys though so I would be fine if either of those trades got it done.

I believe Couturier and Bergie are comparable players. I said so in my first response to Bill. I disagree with SMS about them being galaxies apart.

But there is merit in looking again at a small sample set where 5% of the data is producing 27% of the score.

Take Mika Z's stats this year. Would it be misleading to point out that a huge fraction of his points came against us when we were floundering?
- PT21

I don’t really think they are far apart. But there is a clear separation. People claiming coots is as good is just laughable. He close yes but again there is a clear seperation

The Cuomo nursing home murder debacle was common knowledge back then to anyone who didn't only get information from main stream media sources.
- Richieattack18

Yeah, please don't read that comment as anything more general than acknowledgement of that particular issue. Your choice of media is your business.

You got something right, I remembered, and am acknowledging it. 👍