That seems fair. The only 2 things I would carp on are:

1. A huge # of Couts points have come against Pens, and the Malkin line in particular in the post season. Take away those 5 games against Pens in 18, and the stats change to 9 points in 15 games. Take away the hat trick game and I think it becomes 13 points in 19 games.

2. There are series in post-season where Couts has had hardly any impact. The Habs series last year, for example. when Shea Weber swallowed him up like a python.
- PT21

It is completely illogical to take anything away. Think about what you're doing. You want to discount a great performance in a playoff series and you want to highlight a series where he didn't score well. That's called bias. It's simply not credible.

Let’s make a small sample size smaller and smaller…yeah, selectively remove games…that’s the way to make it “more” accurate.

Of course, team depth, performance, and matchup always affect individual and then team results. Winning being more important than individual stats.
- NC Flyers Fan

Actually, I was precisely addressing (making the best of) the "small sample" issue by 'smoothing'. Just google the two terms and you will find zillions of references. Essentially, you lop off the tails and re-normalize.

EDIT:

Here is a little explanation/justification, the logic of which is fairly straightforward. Think about why the "small sample" issue is a problem. It is because aberrant values may disproportionately sway the mean. In the same way that including Bill Gates' income may disproportionately sway the median income of any group of individuals.

There are now two possibilities. Either those aberrant values were actually not so aberrant. Or they are so. Unfortunately, there is no way to know without further data gathering, which is presumably not an option (else it would have been undertaken).

So, what do you do? Well, you choose the one which is likelier to produce the lesser evil. If you have a part of the small sample that is significantly an outlier, then chances are higher it is in fact an outlier than it is not.

By lopping it off, you risk lopping off something un-aberrant and relevant. But that is less likely than it being aberrant. Off course the more you want to lop off, and the less aberrant the values, the riskier the undertaking becomes, so such pruning should be done only of extremities and as minimally as possible. It should also be borne in mind that this is far from a solution that solves the small sample problem.

It is however, established statistical practice.

They’d want a pick from us too I’m sure
- black_francis

Losing Ghost (ED) and JV are two good player gone. And throw in a draft pick (like a second or third as reported (guessed 😆). The Flyers gain Tarasenko.

Doesn’t sound good until I look at the cap space being created. 👍

It is completely illogical to take anything away. Think about what you're doing. You want to discount a great performance in a playoff series and you want to highlight a series where he didn't score well. That's called bias. It's simply not credible.
- MJL

Lol yeah, weird to only count the games he did not put up as many points. That makes zero sense. Does that mean PT is going to take away any good games that Bergeron had as well to make it fair? Likely not because he lives in the land of delusion

Actually, I was precisely addressing (making the best of) the "small sample" issue by 'smoothing'. Just google the two terms and you will find zillions of references. Essentially, you lop off the tails and re-normalize.
- PT21

Done all the time in the NHL statistical world.

Lol yeah, weird to only count the games he did not put up as many points. That makes zero sense. Does that mean PT is going to take away any good games that Bergeron had as well to make it fair? Likely not because he lives in the land of delusion
- Richieattack18

No, merely the land where he has attained roughly 50 semesters of teaching introductory probability theory to undergrads, MBA students, returning students and executive students in many institutions in the area.

Many would also call that a land of delusion, but not in the sense you mean.

Just out of curiosity, you feel Patrick's words that it was a concussion carry more weight then the Flyers saying he had migraine issues?
- J35Bacher

Straight from the horses mouth.

No, merely the land where he has attained roughly 50 semesters of teaching introductory probability theory to undergrads, MBA students, returning students and executive students in many institutions in the area.

Many would also call that a land of delusion, but not in the sense you mean.
- PT21

Ah, the listing of the resume again. Irrelevant.

Really? Its seems the other way around to me.

There are very few players whose career have ended because of migraines. There are zillions whose careers have ended because of concussions.

Its not just a story that came from today. At least two of us have long said, fairly insistently, that the dots connect to a different picture.
- PT21

(frank) the dots. Lol. Don’t you know you need a medical degree to state something medically? Never mind experience with the medical issue. I’ve personally never broken a bone in my body but I MUST only listen to a medical person to find out info about broken bones. Even evil knieval wouldn’t be able to state poop to me 🤷‍♂️

~flyer fans that refuse still to believe or admit myself and pt21 TOLD you bs on migraines. That’s ok tho. We get it

Who should we believe? A poster on hockeybuzz who claims and fakes expertise in every area of existence. Or the team, who was in direct contact with the player and the doctors treating the player? Anything else is just unproven speculation.
- MJL

Guess you should’ve believed the hb posters.

They were right down to a T

whether you want to admit it or not matters not.

We know

(frank) the dots. Lol. Don’t you know you need a medical degree to state something medically? Never mind experience with the medical issue. I’ve personally never broken a bone in my body but I MUST only listen to a medical person to find out info about broken bones. Even evil knieval wouldn’t be able to state poop to me 🤷‍♂️

~flyer fans that refuse still to believe or admit myself and pt21 TOLD you bs on migraines. That’s ok tho. We get it
- Stayin alive

Are you guys medical doctors???😜

No, merely the land where he has attained roughly 50 semesters of teaching introductory probability theory to undergrads, MBA students, returning students and executive students in many institutions in the area.

Many would also call that a land of delusion, but not in the sense you mean.
- PT21

Guess even with the plethora of knowledge that you have you still can't grasp the reason as to why you don't cherry pick which games you want to count and which ones not count in a comparison of averages for a singular player but not the other. Oh well!

Patrice Bergeron is a pretty exceptional player....being able to be a point per game player and a top shutdown forward is something a select few can claim...same for Coots. I feel you are downplaying this point. Both play on the top line of their respective teams for a reason. Not taking away from Eichel's skill (he has plenty of it), but he hasn't been able to elevate his line mates and team.
- Sublime55

Buffalo pp with eichel ranked #1
Ranked 18th without him.

Skinner 40 goals on his wing
6 without him

Olafsson 11 goals with him in 25 games
3 without him in 30 games

This was the blog the day after Chuck Fletcher spoke on Patrick's situation in Sept. 2019.

https://www.hockeybuzz.com/blog.php?post_id=101635

(frank) the dots. Lol. Don’t you know you need a medical degree to state something medically? Never mind experience with the medical issue. I’ve personally never broken a bone in my body but I MUST only listen to a medical person to find out info about broken bones. Even evil knieval wouldn’t be able to state poop to me 🤷‍♂️

~flyer fans that refuse still to believe or admit myself and pt21 TOLD you bs on migraines. That’s ok tho. We get it
- Stayin alive

I agree completely about your first para. This has nothing to do with being medically trained. Indeed, if a doctor told me otherwise, I would be suspicious.

A lot of people here are worth reading. Apart from BM (who we all know is really the hologram produced by MJL), I am constantly learning from guys like Tomahawk, Dubc55, you, and several others in non Flyers threads, and many people, even MJL, on occasion (nowadays when someone else quotes him).

Iotw, It's not the opinions per se that I find lacking. It's the sheer inflexibility of opinions when presented with contrary logic. With 30 years of teaching up and down the spectrum, from voluntary teaching in the horror that is Philly high schools, to minority adult students who have never had formal training of even the most rudimentary algebra, to whizkids who move ahead of you within minutes of the class, I have never, ever, ever encountered a group of people as inflexible as HB posters. I had no idea until I started being more than a casual poster since last year.

I’m confused with this coots vs Bergy comparisons. Both are really good because first off they are great defensively. And they both bring offense. The coots lovers continue to post stats that coots is very close to Bergy with gpg points all that….

Color me stupid but the key reason BOTH are very good is the defensive play.

WHAT ARE THE SELKES TOTALS?

Bergy 6
Coots 1

Stop playing people Bergy is worlds ahead of coots in coots BIGGEST strength. It’s not even a debate

Guess even with the plethora of knowledge that you have you still can't grasp the reason as to why you don't cherry pick which games you want to count and which ones not count in a comparison of averages for a singular player but not the other. Oh well!
- Richieattack18

Ofc you should do it for the other guy too. But he has a lot larger sample set. Pruning will not affect it as much.

Btw, off topic, but you are the guy, last summer, who first brought up the issue of the deaths in nursing homes caused by Covid in NY under the Cuomo regime. At that time, I did not know. You were on to something, and it is a real shame the issue is not getting more publicity because there is considerable evidence now that what happened was a massacre.

I don't want to veer the board even further away from hockey so I am not getting into this more, but I did want to shout out an acknowledgement.

This was the blog the day after Chuck Fletcher spoke on Patrick's situation in Sept. 2019.

https://www.hockeybuzz.com/blog.php?post_id=101635
- bmeltzer

"Fletcher said it took time for team doctors and specialists to isolate the root cause -- whether it was a form of PCS, if it stemmed from a genetic predisposition to migraines, or some combination thereof -- and finally determined that the on-going effects were congenital rather than being concussion-related."

Dating back to 2017-18 (the year Couturier's offensive role became an apples-to-apples 1C comparison to Bergeron; this was the year Giroux was moved from center to LW and the year following the offseason trade of Brayden Schenn to St. Louis):


Regular season:

Couturier 276 GP, 104 G, 148 A, 252 PTS, 0.913 points-per-game
Bergeron 244 GP, 116 G, 130 A, 246 PTS, 1.016 points-per-game

Playoffs:

Couturier 20 GP, 7 G, 11 A, 18 PTS, 0.900 points-per-game
Bergeron 59 GP, 21 G, 29 A, 50 PTS, 0.847 points-per-game


Bergeron has also had the benefit of centering Marchand and Pastrnak for the duration of this time period. Couturier has had some very good linemates, too, but has also played with a variety of players (most of whom saw a bump in their production when played on his line).

Is Bergeron slightly better than Couturier? Yes, just a little. But to talk about vastly better Bergeron is sheer hyperbole.
- bmeltzer

So coots is close to Bergy offensive numbers…

Bergy 4 selkes
Coots 1

Coots being really that close to Bergy is hyperbole.

Bergy is light years ahead of coots defensively and better offensively.

The stats AND awards show that

Lol at taking the games Coots played against the penguins out of the equation. You’re showing your true colors.

We’re bored enough with an expansion draft we’re arguing about whether coots is great or not… is that what’s going on in this forum? 🤔

Are you guys medical doctors???😜
- peesinwind

No but I did stay in a holiday express last night 🤷‍♂️

There’s not a team in this league where he’s less then a 1 b center and on most teams he’s a 1 a. Patrice also plays with much more talented players on both ends of the ice…

I agree completely about your first para. This has nothing to do with being medically trained. Indeed, if a doctor told me otherwise, I would be suspicious.

A lot of people here are worth reading. Apart from BM (who we all know is really the hologram produced by MJL), I am constantly learning from guys like Tomahawk, Dubc55, you, and several others in non Flyers threads, and many people, even MJL, on occasion (nowadays when someone else quotes him).

Iotw, It's not the opinions per se that I find lacking. It's the sheer inflexibility of opinions when presented with contrary logic. With 30 years of teaching up and down the spectrum, from voluntary teaching in the horror that is Philly high schools, to minority adult students who have never had formal training of even the most rudimentary algebra, to whizkids who move ahead of you within minutes of the class, I have never, ever, ever encountered a group of people as inflexible as HB posters. I had no idea until I started being more than a casual poster since last year.
- PT21

And I’ll add god forbid people do a little research on anything. If someone is telling me THEIR experience on WHATEVER usually it makes it extremely easy to find from them credible sources to do my own research.

A guy on TSN predicted Seattle takes Rubstov. Honestly, if i were them id take all low priced guys, then makes deals for picks to trade for the higher priced guys. Should be interesting how it plays out