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Forums :: Blog World :: Ryan Wilson: Trading prospects before they lose their shine
Author Message
Feds91Stammer
Detroit Red Wings
Location: "China was as proactive as possible" - Rinosaur, SC
Joined: 02.01.2012

Jul 14 @ 1:39 PM ET
I agree with this. Whatever the chances are, the Pens desperately need some value contracts. And they are talking about adding size that has some skill. Well, here you go.

Pens have dealt the prospects plenty of times. It's ok to hang on to some. I'd argue having some prospects pan out is the only way the Pens can continue to be competitive in Sid and Malkin's final years. A third of the team needs new contracts next year and all the supporting players are in a position to get a raise.

Also, basing a player's NHL success completely on his scoring stats is dumb. Especially if they bring other attributes. Those are still better numbers than Tom Wilson put up.

- Tojo.

Uhh well Tom Wilson didn’t play in the Q and he was a full time nhler in his DY+2
jmatchett383
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Newark, DE
Joined: 03.09.2010

Jul 14 @ 1:40 PM ET
That's what I'm saying

Every prospect is 2 or 3 years away, including guys we may have traded 2 or 3 years ago

And in 2 or 3 years, we'll be lamenting that Geno and Sid are 36/37 and we don't have any young/cheap ELC level players

- TheGame316


Right...but the last guy that was able to step in right away to the Pens without serious seasoning was Olli Maatta. Most players, even first rounders, take 1-2 seasons after being drafted to being NHL ready, and another 2-3 season to become impact players. And if you want to keep acquiring players to "win now," the teams that you are trading with want that top-end draft/prospect capitol. That leaves you with a bunch of hoping with later round picks.

Basically, unless you hit on a guy who you think can help you "win now" (1-2 years), you either give up the best chance to draft those players in trades, or you don't go all-in. I get what you're saying, but the biggest issue is that the Penguins don't have the types of players that will help them win now on ELCs.
MattStrat
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: ...serial abuser...and misuser...of the ellipsis , NF
Joined: 12.12.2014

Jul 14 @ 1:41 PM ET
Just look at their cohorts from the Q and all the NHL success those guys have had.
- Feds91Stammer


One thing I will say about Poulin is that his size and play style could keep around him for an extended look...if he's still with them in September, that is. He's a big kid that plays a truculent game....
jmatchett383
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Newark, DE
Joined: 03.09.2010

Jul 14 @ 1:42 PM ET
Uhh well Tom Wilson didn’t play in the Q and he was a full time nhler in his DY+2
- Feds91Stammer


Yes, but he sits down to pee.
Feds91Stammer
Detroit Red Wings
Location: "China was as proactive as possible" - Rinosaur, SC
Joined: 02.01.2012

Jul 14 @ 1:51 PM ET
One thing I will say about Poulin is that his size and play style could keep around him for an extended look...if he's still with them in September, that is. He's a big kid that plays a truculent game....
- MattStrat

If he can improve his skating he could be a bottom 6 guy otherwise he’s Swiss league bound.
TheGame316
Joined: 11.18.2008

Jul 14 @ 1:53 PM ET
Right...but the last guy that was able to step in right away to the Pens without serious seasoning was Olli Maatta. Most players, even first rounders, take 1-2 seasons after being drafted to being NHL ready, and another 2-3 season to become impact players. And if you want to keep acquiring players to "win now," the teams that you are trading with want that top-end draft/prospect capitol. That leaves you with a bunch of hoping with later round picks.

Basically, unless you hit on a guy who you think can help you "win now" (1-2 years), you either give up the best chance to draft those players in trades, or you don't go all-in. I get what you're saying, but the biggest issue is that the Penguins don't have the types of players that will help them win now on ELCs.

- jmatchett383


Mini-rebuild was due a few years ago

Its an unpopular opinion, and I get going for the 3peat, but a minor re-tool after that 2nd cup would have been ideal

A lot of guys would have been able to be traded at top value, Kessel, Schultz, Hags, Sheary, Maatta (We probably keep Murray...but hindsight...)

Back to Back Stanley cups might net us some of those value cup chasing Free Agents to fill those voids, and trading guys could have filled out the prospect pool we could dip in to for years

I know why they didn't do it, but that second cup felt lucky and the cracks in the armour were showing
jmatchett383
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Newark, DE
Joined: 03.09.2010

Jul 14 @ 1:58 PM ET
Mini-rebuild was due a few years ago

Its an unpopular opinion, and I get going for the 3peat, but a minor re-tool after that 2nd cup would have been ideal

A lot of guys would have been able to be traded at top value, Kessel, Schultz, Hags, Sheary, Maatta (We probably keep Murray...but hindsight...)

Back to Back Stanley cups might net us some of those value cup chasing Free Agents to fill those voids, and trading guys could have filled out the prospect pool we could dip in to for years

I know why they didn't do it, but that second cup felt lucky and the cracks in the armour were showing

- TheGame316


Yes, I'm sure that would go over with your captain and face of the franchise:

"Hey Sid, great job winning your second straight Conn Smythe and leading us to back-to-back Cups. So hey, now that you're on the tail end of your prime, we're going to gut this team so we can maybe try to win in your mid-to-late thirties. All right, have a great day, and thanks again!"

I imagine people would just be lining up to have that conversation.
j.boyd919
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Tampa, FL
Joined: 06.14.2011

Jul 14 @ 2:13 PM ET
Can you post one of those comparison charts of Risto and Marino?
- Feds91Stammer




Some raw data.
jmatchett383
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Newark, DE
Joined: 03.09.2010

Jul 14 @ 2:15 PM ET


Some raw data.

- j.boyd919


Not much use unless they're relative, but decent for starters.

However, I don't appreciate you using stats like "goals for" and "goals against" as tangible stats have no use here.
j.boyd919
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Tampa, FL
Joined: 06.14.2011

Jul 14 @ 2:19 PM ET
Not much use unless they're relative, but decent for starters.

However, I don't appreciate you using stats like "goals for" and "goals against" as tangible stats have no use here.

- jmatchett383


Feds91Stammer
Detroit Red Wings
Location: "China was as proactive as possible" - Rinosaur, SC
Joined: 02.01.2012

Jul 14 @ 2:20 PM ET


Some raw data.

- j.boyd919

Yeah but what about hits and draft selection?
MattStrat
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: ...serial abuser...and misuser...of the ellipsis , NF
Joined: 12.12.2014

Jul 14 @ 2:20 PM ET

- j.boyd919



I feel like Marino's Penguins relatives are a bit superior to Risto's Sabres relatives.....not sure I'm saying that right...aka the Penguins roster has been better than the Sabres....
10inchTerror
Joined: 10.13.2019

Jul 14 @ 2:23 PM ET
Mini-rebuild was due a few years ago

Its an unpopular opinion, and I get going for the 3peat, but a minor re-tool after that 2nd cup would have been ideal

A lot of guys would have been able to be traded at top value, Kessel, Schultz, Hags, Sheary, Maatta (We probably keep Murray...but hindsight...)

Back to Back Stanley cups might net us some of those value cup chasing Free Agents to fill those voids, and trading guys could have filled out the prospect pool we could dip in to for years

I know why they didn't do it, but that second cup felt lucky and the cracks in the armour were showing

- TheGame316


Idk, I think it’s the patriots that have the go all in for 2 years, mini rebuild for 2, plan. I think that is the plan to go by. Especially if you are winning cups and players are looking to get paid in a year or two that you will lose anyways. You need to load up for a run in your prime, but you can’t mortgage the future for 13 straight years.
jmatchett383
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Newark, DE
Joined: 03.09.2010

Jul 14 @ 2:24 PM ET
I feel like Marino's Penguins relatives are a bit superior to Risto's Sabres relatives.....not sure I'm saying that right...aka the Penguins roster has been better than the Sabres....
- MattStrat


Yes, his numbers are less bad.
j.boyd919
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Tampa, FL
Joined: 06.14.2011

Jul 14 @ 2:25 PM ET
Yes, his numbers are less bad.
- jmatchett383


Correct lol
MattStrat
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: ...serial abuser...and misuser...of the ellipsis , NF
Joined: 12.12.2014

Jul 14 @ 2:26 PM ET
Yes, his numbers are less bad.
- jmatchett383


Yes, but what I mean is who's he being compared to, to get the relatives, are for the most part better over all than who Risto is being compared to, to get his relatives....
j.boyd919
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Tampa, FL
Joined: 06.14.2011

Jul 14 @ 2:26 PM ET
Idk, I think it’s the patriots that have the go all in for 2 years, mini rebuild for 2, plan. I think that is the plan to go by. Especially if you are winning cups and players are looking to get paid in a year or two that you will lose anyways. You need to load up for a run in your prime, but you can’t mortgage the future for 13 straight years.
- 10inchTerror


They got 3 cups and 4 visits to the finals. Pens for what they wanted out of it lol ownership is gonna mortgage the future for that result every day of the week and rightfully so.
j.boyd919
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Tampa, FL
Joined: 06.14.2011

Jul 14 @ 2:29 PM ET
Yes, but what I mean is who's he being compared to, to get the relatives, are for the most part better over all than who Risto is being compared to, to get his relatives....
- MattStrat


https://hockey-graphs.com...tive-shot-metrics-part-1/

Here ya go, some light reading on relative metrics
jmatchett383
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Newark, DE
Joined: 03.09.2010

Jul 14 @ 2:29 PM ET
Idk, I think it’s the patriots that have the go all in for 2 years, mini rebuild for 2, plan. I think that is the plan to go by. Especially if you are winning cups and players are looking to get paid in a year or two that you will lose anyways. You need to load up for a run in your prime, but you can’t mortgage the future for 13 straight years.
- 10inchTerror


After 2009, with Crosby, Malkin, Staal, Letang, and MAF all in their early primes, no one would have expected it would take them another 7 years to get back to the Finals.

Even with a pretty stacked team filled with Cup-winning stars is not a lock to make the Finals, let alone win it. That is why you go all-in for all of those years, because there are no guarantees. They Penguins were basically gifted (by luck, not Bettman) 2 of the top-5 players in the league in back-to-back years, which gave them an edge on most teams since the 04/05 lockout. To not go all-in while those 2 were still elite players would be foolish.

If you have a window, you go all-in while the window is open, and deal with the fallout when the window closes, and hopefully you have one or more championships to cry into.

Let's say the Penguins decided to do a 3-4 year rebuild after the 2013 ECF debacle. Well, kiss those 15/16 and 16/17 Cups goodbye, and MAYBE you win one in 2018 or 2019. But they kept going for it, and it worked twice.
MattStrat
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: ...serial abuser...and misuser...of the ellipsis , NF
Joined: 12.12.2014

Jul 14 @ 2:34 PM ET
https://hockey-graphs.com/2018/02/21/revisiting-relative-shot-metrics-part-1/

Here ya go, some light reading on relative metrics

- j.boyd919


hahaha I've read this before.


Point I'm making is using relatives to compare two players on different teams is kind of pointless...
Feds91Stammer
Detroit Red Wings
Location: "China was as proactive as possible" - Rinosaur, SC
Joined: 02.01.2012

Jul 14 @ 2:38 PM ET
hahaha I've read this before.


Point I'm making is using relatives to compare two players on different teams is kind of pointless...

- MattStrat

Wut
j.boyd919
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Tampa, FL
Joined: 06.14.2011

Jul 14 @ 2:38 PM ET
hahaha I've read this before.


Point I'm making is using relatives to compare two players on different teams is kind of pointless...

- MattStrat


I don’t think it is though.

Look at it this way:
Risto is dog poop compared to other dog poop players in Buffalo and Marino is under even (not great) compared to superior players in Pittsburgh.

If Risto was good at all, shouldn’t he be in the positive and better than his dog poop team mates in Buffalo?
MattStrat
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: ...serial abuser...and misuser...of the ellipsis , NF
Joined: 12.12.2014

Jul 14 @ 2:42 PM ET
I don’t think it is though.

Look at it this way:
Risto is dog poop compared to other dog poop players in Buffalo and Marino is under even (not great) compared to superior players in Pittsburgh.

If Risto was good at all, shouldn’t he be in the positive and better than his dog poop team mates in Buffalo?

- j.boyd919


This is where my sleepy brain was failing me here hahah


stevens87
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: LET'S GO BRANDON, PA
Joined: 10.05.2005

Jul 14 @ 2:43 PM ET
"My tl;dr here is to have no reservations about using either Poulin or Legare in a package to improve the current product. "

Yeah, let's do that RW so they can lose AGAIN in the first round with this aging core!
Feds91Stammer
Detroit Red Wings
Location: "China was as proactive as possible" - Rinosaur, SC
Joined: 02.01.2012

Jul 14 @ 2:48 PM ET
This is where my sleepy brain was failing me here hahah
- MattStrat

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