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Forums :: Blog World :: Michael Ghofrani: Buffalo Sabres Draft Primer Part 1: Assessing Pick Value
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jcragcrumple
Buffalo Sabres
Location: Reluctant bridge jumper; 6th round OHL draft pick, YT
Joined: 04.04.2016

May 7 @ 1:35 PM ET
He averaged 17 goals a year with the Rangers, he has what 8 or 9 this year, he has already basically matched his assist total with 11. Maybe he hits 10 goals the way he's been playing.
- Buff36


His average games played - 80 (81, 80, 79)

Average goals - 16.6 (.20 gpg)

This year - 64 gp

9 goals.

Assuming his previous pace, he should currently have 12.8 goals instead of 9.

On pace for a little over his average of 13.3 assists

I mean, you are really picking at the margins here. He has always been mediocre. He continued that here

He was 3.8 goals off his pace


sbroads24
Buffalo Sabres
Location: We are in 30th place. It's 2017 , NY
Joined: 02.12.2012

May 7 @ 1:37 PM ET
His average games played - 80 (81, 80, 79)

Average goals - 16.6 (.20 gpg)

This year - 64 gp

9 goals.

Assuming his previous pace, he should currently have 12.8 goals instead of 9.

On pace for a little over his average of 13.3 assists

I mean, you are really picking at the margins here. He has always been mediocre. He continued that here

He was 3.8 goals off his pace

- jcragcrumple

If I told you player X we pick in the third round this was was going to be a 15 goal 3rd liner, how is that not a victory?

Weird hills to die on
Buff36
Buffalo Sabres
Joined: 10.13.2019

May 7 @ 1:42 PM ET
you mean prospects like casey and tage?



pilut was ready to take a d spot
so was borgen


the issue was lack of guys up front, including the first round pick and the center piece prospect in the ror trade


2 guys botts acquired long before the season and should have been ready

- navinrjohnson

Already said Casey hasn't paned out yet, still only 21 and hopefully turns into something. Borgen has been in the System for 2 years and, obviously they thought he wasn't ready yet. I agree on Pilut, said that when the year started. Johnson hasn't even hit the system yet in the ROR trade. Tage hopefully was turning the corner in Rochester, but the injury derailed that, so we don't know how he would have been after his call-up. The lack of players upfront is not all on Botts. That goes back to Murray's drafts
Pegullaville
Buffalo Sabres
Location: Toronto
Joined: 03.16.2011

May 7 @ 1:42 PM ET
the issue is the trades didn't work out, because IMO the coach and gm are not on the same page


look at how miller, montour, and vesey played before they got here, vs once they are here


then look at how skinner was grossly misused


then look at all the wasted picks on stupid trades

simmonds
frolik
vesey
miller

thats a 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 2 5ths


top it off, pay skinner all this money to put him in a place to fail



how many players has he brought in with wheels?

kahun



the goalie he brought in sucks

the coach he brought in sucks


honestly, I think a 19 year old could have constructed this team better with no hockey experience if given 3 years

- navinrjohnson


I won’t argue the trading away or Scandella for a 4th, or the Vesey, frolik, Simmonds trades.

That was a misuse of assets no doubt.

I’m not complaining about us sucking these past few years though. Just don’t frank up a Cozens’ development and hit on this years pick and we are off to the races.
jdfitz77
Buffalo Sabres
Location: buffalo, NY
Joined: 05.21.2007

May 7 @ 1:43 PM ET
“If you notice, 18% of the people came from nursing homes, less than 1% came from jail or prison, 2% came from the homeless population, 2% from other congregate facilities, but 66% of the people were at home, which is shocking to us,” Cuomo said.

“This is a surprise: Overwhelmingly, the people were at home,” he added. “We thought maybe they were taking public transportation, and we’ve taken special precautions on public transportation, but actually no, because these people were literally at home.”

Cuomo said nearly 84% of the hospitalized cases were people who were not commuting to work through car services, personal cars, public transit or walking. He said a majority of those people were either retired or unemployed. Overall, some 73% of the admissions were people over age 51.

- buffalofan19


So how are they getting it?
That’s the question we need to figure out now
Grocery stores?
Food delivery?

If it’s grocery stores...
Maybe u close them to ppl coming in to shop
Make ppl order online & pick the groceries up curbside
For those who can’t order online,
Set up some type of computer at the location where ppl can go through & order what they like and then wait for it to be collected & bagged for them
jdfitz77
Buffalo Sabres
Location: buffalo, NY
Joined: 05.21.2007

May 7 @ 1:44 PM ET
you pay a guy 9 mil a year to play him with larsson, sobotka, e -rod and a winger turned center


yeah stop defending the drunken train conductor for when the train crashes

- navinrjohnson


You realize Botts doesn’t do the nightly lineup...
right?
jcragcrumple
Buffalo Sabres
Location: Reluctant bridge jumper; 6th round OHL draft pick, YT
Joined: 04.04.2016

May 7 @ 1:45 PM ET
If I told you player X we pick in the third round this was was going to be a 15 goal 3rd liner, how is that not a victory?

Weird hills to die on

- sbroads24


People wonder why we dont get nice things from the middle rounds.

We got one pointless year of a mediocre asset instead. It's piss-poor asset management
navinrjohnson
Buffalo Sabres
Location: We are finally good, NY
Joined: 12.08.2009

May 7 @ 1:46 PM ET
This offseason Botterill went after

Joe Pavelski
Joonas Donskoi
Gustav Nyquist
Mats Zuccarello

It’s unfortunate none wanted to sign here.

It’s also, again, not in reality that the current GM doesn’t know or doesn’t care that they need help on the 2nd line.

I trust that if a good player is available (like Kahun, or Skinner, or Joker) and he can make it work, he will.

Just be happy he didn’t trade Dylan Cozens and Jacob Bryson plus a 2nd to get a 2nd line center who won’t want to be here in 2 years

- sbroads24

pay Carl Soderberg 6 mil for 1 year


this allows the kids to sort it out for the top 9 with a viable second line center if casey and cozens both fail

throw craig smith a 3 year 18 mil contract


that gives you a viable RW to round out your top 6


to free up money for those 2, trade either risto or montour for picks/prospects

let vesey, larsson, girgens, frolik and simmonds walk
buyout okposo
trade johansson for picks/prospects

then if you want to really make the team good, trade mccabe for spare parts and sign TJ Brodie
Olofsson-Eichel-Reinhart
Skinner-Soderberg-Smith
Kahun-Casey/Cozens-Cozens/Tage
CJ Smith-Asplund-Lazar/Ruotsalainen/Tage


Dahlin-Joker
Brodie-Miller
Pilut-Borgen


if nothing else, this team would be fun to watch
Buff36
Buffalo Sabres
Joined: 10.13.2019

May 7 @ 1:46 PM ET
His average games played - 80 (81, 80, 79)

Average goals - 16.6 (.20 gpg)

This year - 64 gp

9 goals.

Assuming his previous pace, he should currently have 12.8 goals instead of 9.

On pace for a little over his average of 13.3 assists

I mean, you are really picking at the margins here. He has always been mediocre. He continued that here

He was 3.8 goals off his pace

- jcragcrumple

Never said he wasn't mediocre, but you would hope he would meet his numbers again and hopefully build on them, which he didn't. He is still young and you would hope he would improve a little.
navinrjohnson
Buffalo Sabres
Location: We are finally good, NY
Joined: 12.08.2009

May 7 @ 1:47 PM ET
You realize Botts doesn’t do the nightly lineup...
right?

- jdfitz77

pretty sure hiring a coach means the two are on the same page



botts and ralph brag about how much they talk to each other


you guys need to stop making excuses for these obvious glares



sbroads24
Buffalo Sabres
Location: We are in 30th place. It's 2017 , NY
Joined: 02.12.2012

May 7 @ 1:48 PM ET
People wonder why we dont get nice things from the middle rounds.

We got one pointless year of a mediocre asset instead. It's piss-poor asset management

- jcragcrumple

He at least got one year out of him, as opposed to the 0 is predecessor did.

Again, things could actually be worse
jcragcrumple
Buffalo Sabres
Location: Reluctant bridge jumper; 6th round OHL draft pick, YT
Joined: 04.04.2016

May 7 @ 1:50 PM ET
He at least got one year out of him, as opposed to the 0 is predecessor did.

Again, things could actually be worse

- sbroads24


Ah, the "bbbbbut, Tim Murray" defense

Just because Murray sucked, that doesnt mean Botterill is good.
navinrjohnson
Buffalo Sabres
Location: We are finally good, NY
Joined: 12.08.2009

May 7 @ 1:50 PM ET


Again, things could actually be worse

- sbroads24

another rookie Gm this fall?



we are pissing away prime years of eichel and not even sniffing the playoffs
Buff36
Buffalo Sabres
Joined: 10.13.2019

May 7 @ 1:55 PM ET
You can all female dog all you want about Botts, the guy has made mistakes, nobody said he hasn't. But the guy probably isn't going anywhere, and this mess was started before him, he just got handed the box to it and hasn't done enough to change it. Is he the right guy to fix it, at this point it's hard to be optimistic, but like I said he probably gets this year and hopefully he can flip the script.
Pegullaville
Buffalo Sabres
Location: Toronto
Joined: 03.16.2011

May 7 @ 1:56 PM ET
I am of the belief that the guy should do more than make his first round pick every year, and that he could do a HELL of a lot more than that without facing criticism as a "rush to be competitive". poop, the guy has to get out of bed in the morning, doesn't he??
- Der Kaiser


I like the hockey trades he made for Kahun and Joker.

I’d rather him do nothing at all then over pay for something that won’t make sense long term.

I would have liked Risto to be moved for help up front, however it didn’t happen and luckily enough for us we are going to walk out of this year with another stud prospect.

It’s on Botterill to swing for the fences this offseason. I was all for the tank the past few years but we have enough of a young talent base to make the big move now. It’s time to compete next year.
Buff36
Buffalo Sabres
Joined: 10.13.2019

May 7 @ 1:57 PM ET
Ah, the "bbbbbut, Tim Murray" defense

Just because Murray sucked, that doesnt mean Botterill is good.

- jcragcrumple

You are right, no it doesn't, but it does make it harder when the guy before blew the lid of.
Pegullaville
Buffalo Sabres
Location: Toronto
Joined: 03.16.2011

May 7 @ 1:58 PM ET
where was the moves in late november/early december that needed to be made


we just witnessed 2 huge collapses after the team got off to a hot start in both seasons


I am not sure any franchise has blown that kind of lead in the standings on 2 consecutive seasons, in any sports



but at least we got to hoard a bunch of right shot d men for no reason

- navinrjohnson


Those 2 hot starts were mirages. That’s the issue.

We weren’t actually good.



navinrjohnson
Buffalo Sabres
Location: We are finally good, NY
Joined: 12.08.2009

May 7 @ 1:59 PM ET
You can all female dog all you want about Botts, the guy has made mistakes, nobody said he hasn't. But the guy probably isn't going anywhere, and this mess was started before him, he just got handed the box to it and hasn't done enough to change it. Is he the right guy to fix it, at this point it's hard to be optimistic, but like I said he probably gets this year and hopefully he can flip the script.
- Buff36

he has had 3 years to turn the corner


and if there was no coronavirus, the odds were greater he would get canned then stay


continuity is the message coming from the pegula yacht lately
navinrjohnson
Buffalo Sabres
Location: We are finally good, NY
Joined: 12.08.2009

May 7 @ 2:01 PM ET
Those 2 hot starts were mirages. That’s the issue.

We weren’t actually good.

- Pegullaville

I think 4 or 5 playoff games would do a world of good for eichel, dahlin, reinhart, joker, olofsson and any other sabre that has been clinging to hope over the last 5 years


let alone us the fans


the right tweak or 2 should have been attempted both seasons IMO

navinrjohnson
Buffalo Sabres
Location: We are finally good, NY
Joined: 12.08.2009

May 7 @ 2:02 PM ET
You are right, no it doesn't, but it does make it harder when the guy before blew the lid of.
- Buff36

the guy before was following direction from the owners



he was told to make try to make a playoff run when get got ror and lehner
jdfitz77
Buffalo Sabres
Location: buffalo, NY
Joined: 05.21.2007

May 7 @ 2:02 PM ET
This offseason Botterill went after

Joe Pavelski
Joonas Donskoi
Gustav Nyquist
Mats Zuccarello

It’s unfortunate none wanted to sign here.

It’s also, again, not in reality that the current GM doesn’t know or doesn’t care that they need help on the 2nd line.

I trust that if a good player is available (like Kahun, or Skinner, or Joker) and he can make it work, he will.

Just be happy he didn’t trade Dylan Cozens and Jacob Bryson plus a 2nd to get a 2nd line center who won’t want to be here in 2 years

- sbroads24


The same ppl p!seed about us wasting picks on mediocre players also wanted us to trade for guys like PK Subban & Kessel

Botts deserves credit for the potentially HORRIBLE trade that he DID NOT make

His plan was always to get good by growing the young talent he brought in
And brought in “mediocre” players to help speed up the process while they developed

Btw... for those who say those picks were “wasted”
The odds of acquiring talent through the draft are MUCH LESS than what we got to bridge the gap while the kids have been developing
gerbe75pts
Anaheim Ducks
Location: DRAFT COLE CAUFIELD AT 7!!!, CA
Joined: 09.03.2009

May 7 @ 2:06 PM ET
You can all female dog all you want about Botts, the guy has made mistakes, nobody said he hasn't. But the guy probably isn't going anywhere, and this mess was started before him, he just got handed the box to it and hasn't done enough to change it. Is he the right guy to fix it, at this point it's hard to be optimistic, but like I said he probably gets this year and hopefully he can flip the script.
- Buff36


Can we all stop defending him he has rushed prospects shoved tage down our throats lied about Casey being 7% body fat and continued to not fix the 2nd line center for 2 years

And the cherry on top didn't take any CHL players in 2 straight drafts which is unheard of ..

And his best prospect is a CHL one smh

And the only trade he has made that I love is skinner and Kahun 
jdfitz77
Buffalo Sabres
Location: buffalo, NY
Joined: 05.21.2007

May 7 @ 2:08 PM ET
pay Carl Soderberg 6 mil for 1 year


this allows the kids to sort it out for the top 9 with a viable second line center if casey and cozens both fail

throw craig smith a 3 year 18 mil contract


that gives you a viable RW to round out your top 6


to free up money for those 2, trade either risto or montour for picks/prospects

let vesey, larsson, girgens, frolik and simmonds walk
buyout okposo
trade johansson for picks/prospects

then if you want to really make the team good, trade mccabe for spare parts and sign TJ Brodie
Olofsson-Eichel-Reinhart
Skinner-Soderberg-Smith
Kahun-Casey/Cozens-Cozens/Tage
CJ Smith-Asplund-Lazar/Ruotsalainen/Tage


Dahlin-Joker
Brodie-Miller
Pilut-Borgen


if nothing else, this team would be fun to watch

- navinrjohnson


I suggested Smith a while back
He plays on a line with Bonino, who i wanted to target via trade
They could be 2/3 of a line that can play defense & provide scoring

If we can find that...
*a line that can play tough defensively AND score
That’s when we can move on from Larsson & Girgs on “line4” and then role out younger guys with upside like say:
Routsalainen-Asplund-Tage
on a new “line4” that plays less, but is put in mostly “offensive” situations to help add depth scoring
jdfitz77
Buffalo Sabres
Location: buffalo, NY
Joined: 05.21.2007

May 7 @ 2:09 PM ET
pretty sure hiring a coach means the two are on the same page



botts and ralph brag about how much they talk to each other


you guys need to stop making excuses for these obvious glares

- navinrjohnson


U need to be more factually correct on your rants
Botts doesn’t do the lines,
this Kruger should get that part of the blame

Just be accurate
Pegullaville
Buffalo Sabres
Location: Toronto
Joined: 03.16.2011

May 7 @ 2:10 PM ET
The same ppl p!seed about us wasting picks on mediocre players also wanted us to trade for guys like PK Subban & Kessel

Botts deserves credit for the potentially HORRIBLE trade that he DID NOT make

His plan was always to get good by growing the young talent he brought in
And brought in “mediocre” players to help speed up the process while they developed

Btw... for those who say those picks were “wasted”
The odds of acquiring talent through the draft are MUCH LESS than what we got to bridge the gap while the kids have been developing

- jdfitz77


Like I said earlier, I could at least rationalize everything Botts has done up until the Scandella move (excluding Kahun)

Everything made sense in terms of contracts expiring this offseason and rebuilding at the top of the draft. Guys like Vesey, Mojo and Sheary were to provide depth while attempting to compete this year for a spot.

What he did to try to make a run this year blew up in his face and now we’ll have cap overages this year and was pretty idiotic (Frolik, Simmonds)
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