HockeyBuzz Hotstove: Predicting the Metro Division standings in 2019-20

WSH - Didn't drop-off much from Connolly to Panik, upgraded their D with cheap value (Jensen and Gudas), still have their core and Holtby should be primed for a bounceback.

PHI - They spent too much on "stability", but their forward depth and top-end are both great, Konecny looks like a good breakout candidate and Hart is as good of a young goalie as you'll find.

CAR - Excellent D, excellent forwards and a consistent commitment to systems that play to control the puck. Only issue is goalies, but Mrazek managed fine last year; maybe he can do it again.

PIT - Can't discount the Crosby effect and if Malkin can be better then you can count on two dominant lines. That D corps isn't good, but Murray is solid.

CBS - Nyquist and Texier will help offset the loss of Panarin, but they'll be made or broken by their goalie's performance. Great D, though.

NYR - That D corps doesn't inspire confidence but I have to imagine they'll be a REALLY fun team to watch. Adding Kakko, Panarin, Trouba, Fox AND Kravtsov in one offseason is NUTS.

NJ - A lot of good pieces but likely won't pull together in just one season. They'll be close but they'll miss because of a prolonged losing streak somewhere along the line.

NYI - Because they short-changed their underrated starter in favour of a worse option that's injury-prone and the rest of their roster leaves something to be desired.

Metro is way too hard to predict. The only teams I expect to miss the playoffs would be the Rangers and Isles.

Everyone else improved significantly on paper. I think

1) WSH - I dont see any reason why they would drop

2) CAR - As long as they get the same quality goaltending as they got last season, they should finish 2nd

3\4) I think PHI and PIT will be interchangeable here. I feel PIT took a bit of a step back and in PHI case I really believe Hayes will do well, D will stabilize, all 3 lines should be a threat on the ice for the 1st time in a long time and a full season of Carter Hart can only improve on that poop storm from last season with 8 goalies.

5) NJ - Tough one to figure out. They have Hughes now but I am not sure if he can make an immediate impact. Subban was a good pickup but at the same time he was voted mosted over-rated Dman among his peers. NJ success also heavily relies on Blackwood and a Schneider bounceback season

6) CBJ - I think they just lost too much talent last off season to be in the same position. Even with all that talent, they did struggle to make the post season. Korpisalo is going to need to give them a huge season to improve in the standings.

7) NYR - Addition of Panarin should improve the offense but I still feel they have ways to go to become a playoff team. Not convinced Trouba will be what they were looking for

8)NYI - Basically a wildcard team. On paper they are nothing but Trotz proved last year he can make the team buy in and make the playoffs

man, Tanner hates the Islanders

Tanner knows where to get his clicks. Just bash any Islander story and the clicks start up. He is just wrong about almost everything so.....

man, Tanner hates the Islanders
- jimbo83

everyone does. or should. what an awful team.

Washington's core got older and they went from Niskanen to Gudas but I still think they're the best team in the division

Carolina's goaltending is gonna cost them some wins

Flyers still just a bubble team

People act like Blackwood was a waiver wire pick up lol

So Lou's terrible because he didn't sign the luckiest goalie to ever play?

You do know that teams can get the same stats you live by....right?

People act like Blackwood was a waiver wire pick up lol
- Devilish4

Curtis McElhinney was a waiver wire pick up.

Blackwood is a (almost) 23 year old with a career AHL Sv % around .900.

everyone does. or should. what an awful team.
- BINGO!

My uncle is an Islander fan. He was disowned by the family

Curtis McElhinney was a waiver wire pick up.

Blackwood is a (almost) 23 year old with a career AHL Sv % around .900.
- BINGO!

He has good NHL numbers though and for some reason it only shows he has 1 year but I could have sworn he played a couple of games they year before as well.

Curtis McElhinney was a waiver wire pick up.

Blackwood is a (almost) 23 year old with a career AHL Sv % around .900.
- BINGO!

Yeah his one blemish. Let me ask was his performance last year better then what you would have expected from a 23 yro rookie goalie?

How many goalies are actually tearing it up by 23 ?

They are an absolute crapshoot to predict so for him to have gotten off track for a period while he adjusted to the pro game is 100 percent resonable ?

So before the one stat you mentioned he was a high second round pick ( which is pretty high for goalies ), won a OHL goalie of the year title, played for Canada at the WJC.

Now after the AHL stint ( on a crap AHL team no doubt ) he posts very good numbers on a team that just about no one would have said a good thing about.

I dont know what you expect from an up an coming goalie ?

A couple of statements about the Isles are odd:

"Some guys are due for regression". Like who? Nelson? Cizikas? I actually suspect exactly the opposite is the case with most of the other forwards.

"Probably the worst blue line in the league." I guess Lehner is the best goalie in NHL history. And Greiss (whose numbers were about the same as Lehner's) is the luckiest goalie in NHL history.

My biggest concern last year to this year is that the Isles had a good year injury-wise and that may not repeat. Otherwise, I don't understand the pretty much universal doubling down by prognosticators on last year's mistakes. It's like they're saying, "I can be wrong but I can't be THAT wrong, so things will even out this year".

Tough division, and it's gonna be close top to bottom...

1. Caps (UGH, it pains me to do that)
2. Canes (gonna edge out the Pens on the last day of the season)
3. Pens (too many new guys, but a bit better than last season)
4. Devils (much improved)
5. Flyers (fell out of the 'offs during the last week of the season)
6. Islanders (they get no respect and have Lou as GM)
7. Rangers (nothing happening here)
8. Jackets (too many off-season losses)

Tanner knows where to get his clicks. Just bash any Islander story and the clicks start up. He is just wrong about almost everything so.....

And Carolina got Gardiner so obviously they're the best team in the league of all time ever.

It’s bubba ho tep Elvis. Duh.

A couple of statements about the Isles are odd:

"Some guys are due for regression". Like who? Nelson? Cizikas? I actually suspect exactly the opposite is the case with most of the other forwards.

"Probably the worst blue line in the league." I guess Lehner is the best goalie in NHL history. And Greiss (whose numbers were about the same as Lehner's) is the luckiest goalie in NHL history.

My biggest concern last year to this year is that the Isles had a good year injury-wise and that may not repeat. Otherwise, I don't understand the pretty much universal doubling down by prognosticators on last year's mistakes. It's like they're saying, "I can be wrong but I can't be THAT wrong, so things will even out this year".
- doublechili

Lehner DID have one of the best years in NHL history.

Both goalies played well beyond career averages and you shouldn't expect that to continue.

Is Cizikas gonna score 20 goals again or back to his average of.... 7?

How good is 33 year old Komarov gonna be? He was terrible by the time the playoffs came around. What about 32 year old Clutterbuck?

The Isles managed more shots last year than the Ducks and Kings. That's it. 11 teams averaged fewer shots against.

the only thing that they were in the top tier of the league in was goaltending, and you could make a pretty strong case they downgraded that without upgrading any other part of the roster.

1.Washington
2.Carolina
3.New Jersey

1.Boston
2.Tampa
3.Toronto

Wild Cardsittsburgh & Florida

Nothing would smitten me more seeing the Rangers finishing last in this divison.

1. Penguins
2. Capitals
3. Canes
4. Flyers
5. Devils
6. Islanders
7. Jackets
8. Rangers

Capitals
Flyers
Canes
Penguins
Rangers
Isles
Jackets
Devils

Come at me in April because EVERYONE is guessing too.

Lehner DID have one of the best years in NHL history.

Both goalies played well beyond career averages and you shouldn't expect that to continue.

Is Cizikas gonna score 20 goals again or back to his average of.... 7?
- BINGO!

Lehner and Greiss, both pretty pedestrian goalies over their careers, had very similar numbers and were at the top of the league with historically great stats. It's so statistically improbable that this would happen without a causal connection to coaching/systems/team defense....

I specifically mentioned Cizikas (and Nelson) as candidates for regression. You can't say that about most of the other forwards of note (the opposite may be true). But does anyone mention that the team went from a totally free-wheeling style under Weight to team defense under Trotz and had to learn the system last year? IMO, it's reasonable to think they may be able to open things up offensively some this year with a season of the system under their belts (and Trotz has said exactly this).

If people were predicting a relatively minor regression, then sure, whatever. But the same people who probably had them as a lottery team last year and were proven wrong, are now saying they'll go from 105 points and #5 overall in the league to basically a lottery team. It's doubling down on being wrong - generally not a good idea. But we'll see....

Lehner and Greiss, both pretty pedestrian goalies over their careers, had very similar numbers and were at the top of the league with historically great stats. It's so statistically improbable that this would happen without a causal connection to coaching/systems/team defense....
- doublechili

As imperfect as they are, underlying goalies numbers (GSAA & HDGSAA for a couple) have ranked Lehner very highly over the past 4 seasons. Among the top-10 if I recall correctly.

In case you haven't encountered them before, my understanding of Goals Saved Above Average (GSAA) is ostensibly an expected goals against stat that defines goalie success in term of how many more shots a goalie stops than the average goalie would (based on league-wide save % from the area the shot is taken). High-Danger GSAA tracks the same but only off shots from the slot "arrow"- the most dangerous area on the ice.

Tanner you really are a special kind of stupid. Maybe you can come out to a playoff game