Dubnyk, Bryzgalov and Smith all found their careers after a stint with Sean Burke. Rinne, Holtby, and another unknown Hutton benefited from being around Mitch Korn. Crawford and Price were tutored by Stephan Waite. Allaire tutored Patrick Roy and another unknown til he won the Conn Smyth, Gigure.
So coaching, dedication, athletic ability, mental ability, what team drafts you, opportunity, injury(Blackman, DiPietro, Turek) and lady luck play a big roll in how successful a goalie's career is. Draft position isn't as big a factor, so wasting a 1st rounder on a player that will take 4 years or more to develop if ever, is foolish. I was glad to see stats backing up the opinion.

Good blog Jason. It reminds me of a blog that Matt Henderson wrote this last offseason. It got a lot of attention.

Do Not Even Consider Drafting A Goalie at 16th

It was followed up by The Massive Change Away From Drafting Goalies In Round 1, largely because I accused him of cherry picking his examples.

Good supplemental reading.