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Do Not Even Consider Drafting A Goalie At 16th |
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Today the Edmonton Journal asked this:
Beyond McDavid: With prospect the cupboard bare, should the Oilers draft a goalie with the 16th pick next week? #NHL pic.twitter.com/LB8EO2Dpvz
— Edmonton Journal (@edmontonjournal) June 17, 2015
The answer to this is an obvious and resounding NO.
No. NO. NO!!! [I wont type it, but I’m actually going to yell my “NO” and hold it until I run out of breath]
Ok, so now that I got that out of my system we should probably talk about why I wouldn’t want to Draft a goalie (presumably Samsonov who is the highest ranked goaltender) at 16 Overall in what has been described as the deepest Draft since 2003.
RISK
It all basically comes down to risk management. Now I’m not suggesting for a second that the Oilers should be Risk Averse, because I’ve been on record saying they should trade these picks for players and as far as the draft is concerned that’s about as risky as one can get. However, in the event that the Oilers actually use their pick at 16 I surely hope that they aren’t going to waste it on a goaltender. They might as well just give the pick to someone else for free if they’re going to blow this opportunity.
The 2015 Draft is supposed to have players at 16 who in any other year would be considered top 10 quality. This is no ordinary Draft which should have gone through the blue chips before the middle of the round. If we can trust the scouts (still a little scary) then there are going to be legitimate NHL players up into the 20’s of this Draft.
Skaters of this quality will simply not be available the next time the Oilers are in a position to Draft in the middle of the 1st Round. The value of the pick is considerably higher than they thought it would be when the trade to pick it up was made but that is compounded by the strength of the actual Draft. The 16 is a very valuable asset.
They cannot afford to screw this up.
LOGIC
But why would taking a Goaltender be screwing it up? Isn’t it possible for a goaltender to be worth the 16th Overall pick?
Sure…it’s possible. But think about it like this. The Oilers are in a position to trade the pick for a Goaltender in Cam Talbot who is at this very moment a great NHL backup and potentially a very good NHL Starter, but even that feels like an overpay.
So if trading the 16th pick for a proven NHL talent isn’t worth it, then why would turning away that proven NHL player in order to Draft a complete “maybe” be better value?
It wouldn’t. If the Oilers want a goaltender with the 16th pick they can get one just by trading it to the Rangers. Period. End of story. But why stop at the end of a logical statement when we can go futher than that?
TRENDS
The trend in the NHL has been to finally stop over-valuing Goaltenders at the Draft. It takes a long time in sports for people to learn their lesson but it finally looks like NHL teams have come to terms with the fact that young Goaltenders are extremely volatile. Sometimes these kids are seen as stone cold locks to be starting NHL goalies and they pan out, sometimes they never make it beyond AHL backup. They also, generally, take quite a while to learn their craft well enough to play in the NHL and they are very close to UFA status when they do. So teams invest hundreds of thousands into their development just to get a couple NHL seasons out of them before they lose club control.
Goalies are just not great bets and you can see NHL teams reflect that realization in their Drafting. Since the 2007 NHL Draft there have been exactly 6 times. Just 6 times in 8 Drafts or 6/240 selections in the 1st Round. That means just 2.5% of 1st Round selections in that time have been goaltenders. There’s plenty of reason to believe that a goalie they rate very highly will still be there when the Oilers draft again at 33.
Ok, so what if the Oilers don’t care about the recent trends in NHL Drafting that are telegraphing that they shouldn’t worry about goaltenders being picked off the boards in the first round? What if they know who their guy is and they just want to make sure they get him?
FAILURE RATE
Well in that case they should review who those 6 Goalies taken in the 1st Round were and who they turned out to be. They are:
Chet Pickard – Nashville, 18th 2008
Tom McCollum – Detroit, 30th 2008
Jack Campbell –Dallas, 11th 2010
Mark Visentin, -Arizona, 27th 2010
Andrei Vasilevskiy –Tampa Bay, 19th 2012
Malcolm Subban –Boston, 24th 2012
Of those 6 players taken in the 1st Round because they were rated so high and because teams needed to make sure that nobody else got them, only 1 of them is an NHL player today and his team refused to play him in the Finals even though their starter tore his groin.
Chet Pickard never played 1 game in the NHL. Not a single game. In fact, he last played for Edmonton’s ECHL affiliate in 2013-2014.
Tom McCollum has 3 NHL games under his belt but he was at least the starter in Grand Rapids.
Jack Campbell appeared in 1 NHL game far. He also appeared in 7 ECHL games this year. Not exactly the return you want for an 11th Overall pick. I’m sure the Stars would prefer to have Cam Fowler who went right after Campbell that year.
Mark Visentin got 1 NHL game in too before he disappeared completely. The last season of record I have for him was 2013-2014 where he registered a .902 sv% in 45 AHL games. He had an ankle injury that sidelined him the entire year.
Andrei Vasilevskiy is the best the Oilers could hope for Drafting a goalie with the 16th pick. He’s won his way into an NHL backup job at the age of 20 and he’s the heir apparent to Bishop. He also has just so-so numbers at this level but there is every expectation that he will one day be an NHL starter. Just not today.
Malcolm Subban might be better than Vasilevskiy down the road if his relative success in the AHL goes. He wasn’t the first goaltender taken in his Draft, but he has 2 AHL season at .920 or slightly above and he picked up his first NHL game last year as well.
One half of the goalies taken in the 1st round since 2007 have failed completely. Only 1 of the 6 is an NHL player at this moment and 2 more are at least solid AHL performers. That is not the kind of track record you want to see when Drafting anybody with a 1st round pick.
Of all those goaltenders, only Jack Campbell was taken with a pick higher than the Oilers would be using at 16 Overall and none of those drafts were considered particularly deep.
ONE MORE TIME
I must reiterate. Using the 16th Overall pick in the 2015 Draft to select a Goaltender would be too great of a risk to entertain. The best case scenario is one in which within 3 years the Oilers will have found a capable backup. The worst case scenario is they pass on a Cam Fowler to draft Jack Campbell. The NHL is trending away from Drafting Goaltenders in the 1st Round for a very good reason and that should not be forgotten. They have a very high fail rate compared to other positions and only reach maturity at an age where their clubs have very little control over them.
Above all else, if they want a goalie and are willing to sacrifice the 16th pick all they need to do is get on the phone and make a deal for one. There are goaltenders who are better and available today who the Oilers can acquire by dealing that pick.
Just don’t even think about Drafting a goalie with the pick.
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