Why would Detroit rent Paul Martin? They have 5 D under contract for the next two years, plus Brendan Smith.
- hardnosed

Weren't they shopping hard for Niskanen, Myers, and Green?

I believe they sorely need a minute eater like Martin. Their defense is far from cup contender level, imo.

Random:

To PIT
1st, Jurco

to DET
Martin
Conditional 3rd(2nd if Martin doesn't resign)

Det would need to clear about $1M in space but otherwise what do you guys think?
- YouMeAndDupuis9

That is one incredibly lop-sided trade.

Pens get a likely mid 1st round pick & a very promising 21yr old roster player.

Detroit gets a 34yr old rental Dman & likely low 2nd or 3rd round pick.

That is one incredibly lop-sided trade.

Pens get a likely mid 1st round pick & a very promising 21yr old roster player.

Detroit gets a 34yr old rental Dman & likely low 2nd or 3rd round pick.
- s0rcerer1984

Fair enough. Anything based around Martin / Jurco that would make sense?[/img]

Fair enough. Anything based around Martin / Jurco that would make sense?
- YouMeAndDupuis9[/img]

Assuming Det. would have interest in Martin (possible) & be willing to deal Jurco (doubtful), I'd say the following would be considered fair:


Pit: Martin + 1st

Det: Jurco + Conditional 3rd if Martin resigns


Not sure I would do that deal due to the loss of the 1st round pick.

EDIT: The list teams I would think Martin could be dealt to (ie, not on his NTC list) & might have use for him would consist of the following: Dallas, Minnesota, Colorado, & New Jersey.

Could add LA to that list of Voynov is not coming back this season, but that is a big 'if" & they are already in Cap hell so I just don't see how that would be possible.

And that's why advanced stats are popular - they allow "national" bloggers a shortcut to make comments on teams and players they don't have the time or inclination to watch play the game. And sometimes this applies to single-team bloggers as well.

It reminds me of a couple years back when Peter King (SI's NFL guy) admitted that he doesn't have much time to watch football outside of the games he covers for TV or SI. So, the guy gets paid to comment on league-wide action without actually watching the players he comments about. A fan with Sunday Ticket has a better shot at seeing guys play than a hack like King who spends more time in airports than in front of game film. That confession made it perfectly obvious why he once touted Jake Plummer for league MVP one preseason, and it made it obvious why he always spent so much time writing about coffee.
- hardnosed

Kinda like those stupid NCAA football coaches polls... Some athletic department lacky probably fills it out anyway, but what NCAA head coach has the time to watch other teams (that he's not scouting) play?

One thing advance stats can help do is quantify what non-scoring players do. So much of our perception of guy we don't watch more than a couple times of the year is based on what writers/bloggers say. It's nice if that can be backed up statistically.

As someone that lives in DC, it isn't the coach. Their former GM was a complete moron in terms of asset management.
- s0rcerer1984

I agree with you as I think about it. But then I wonder if their new GM is any better looking at the recent acquisitions and moves they made?

I agree with you as I think about it. But then I wonder if their new GM is any better looking at the recent acquisitions and moves they made?
- powerhouse

Not saying he is, but you can't really blame Trotz for their current state.

Assuming Det. would have interest in Martin (possible) & be willing to deal Jurco (doubtful), I'd say the following would be considered fair:


Pit: Martin + 1st

Det: Jurco + Conditional 3rd if Martin resigns


Not sure I would do that deal due to the loss of the 1st round pick.

EDIT: The list teams I would think Martin could be dealt to (ie, not on his NTC list) & might have use for him would consist of the following: Dallas, Minnesota, Colorado, & New Jersey.

Could add LA to that list of Voynov is not coming back this season, but that is a big 'if" & they are already in Cap hell so I just don't see how that would be possible.
- s0rcerer1984

I wouldn't do that deal either. Not giving up a top defenseman and a 1st for a 2nd round pick.

I thought Jurco and Martin would be more similiar in value. Jurco is a bit like our Dumoulin. Hes like 3rd or fourth best young player at his position (behind Tatar, Nyqvist). Trying to take advantage of these teams with awesome young forward depth. Maybe just Martin + Conditional 3rd for Jurco.

I wouldn't do that deal either. Not giving up a top defenseman and a 1st for a 2nd round pick.

I thought Jurco and Martin would be more similiar in value. Jurco is a bit like our Dumoulin. Hes like 3rd or fourth best young player at his position (behind Tatar, Nyqvist). Trying to take advantage of these teams with awesome young forward depth. Maybe just Martin + Conditional 3rd for Jurco.
- YouMeAndDupuis9

You have to view it as how long the team has control over the asset they are moving (ie, ELC + RFA years).

The Penguins are trading an asset in Martin that they have control over for 6 months + the Playoffs for an asset in Jurco that Detroit has control over for 6 months + the Playoffs + 4 RFA years. The 4 RFA years are the kicker and where the value of a young player like Jurco comes from.

A likely low conditional 3rd rd pick dependant on the 34yr old Martin re-signing for big money just doesn't even come close to covering that gap in value from a low-priced RFA for 4 yrs. A low 1st rounder, w/ the 3yr ELC + 4 yrs RFA might cover it though as who knows if the future 1st round pick (whoever it is) would pan out, when he would pan out, or just be a total bust.

If you are insistent on not giving up a 1st round pick, then maybe the following (though if I was Detroit I would pass on it as some team would be willing to include a low 1st round pick):

Pit: Martin + Dumoulin + 2nd
Det: Jurco + Cond. 3rd to Pitt. of Martin re-signs

You have to view it as how long the team has control over the asset they are moving (ie, ELC + RFA years).

The Penguins are trading an asset in Martin that they have control over for 6 months + the Playoffs for an asset in Jurco that Detroit has control over for 6 months + the Playoffs + 4 RFA years. The 4 RFA years are the kicker and where the value of a young player like Jurco comes from.

A likely low conditional 3rd rd pick dependant on the 34yr old Martin re-signing for big money just doesn't even come close to covering that gap in value from a low-priced RFA for 4 yrs. A low 1st rounder, w/ the 3yr ELC + 4 yrs RFA might cover it though as who knows if the future 1st round pick (whoever it is) would pan out, when he would pan out, or just be a total bust.

If you are insistent on not giving up a 1st round pick, then maybe the following (though if I was Detroit I would pass on it as some team would be willing to include a low 1st round pick):

Pit: Martin + Dumoulin + 2nd
Det: Jurco + Cond. 3rd to Pitt. of Martin re-signs
- s0rcerer1984

I do understand the logic. But there are the Morrow for Morrow trades of the world for a reason. Jurco has barely proved anything in the NHL so if you view him as a prospect its a little different. We are still taking the risk he will pan out and they are getting the sure thing.

I do understand the logic. But there are the Morrow for Morrow trades of the world for a reason. Jurco has barely proved anything in the NHL so if you view him as a prospect its a little different. We are still taking the risk he will pan out and they are getting the sure thing.
- YouMeAndDupuis9

True & I hated that trade at the time. However, Joe Morrow was/still is a prospect & some would say bordering on bust status. Same age as Jurco, but only 2 NHL games w/ multiple organizations (Pit, Dallas, maybe even the Bruins) having lost faith in him. Meanwhile, his ELC is running while he plays in the minors. Compare to Jurco, who has 47 NHL games w/ 17pts. Not stellar numbers, but he is an NHL regular, which is significant as you can get value out of his ELC deal right now.

I guess I just view Jurco as a young NHL roster player given what he has proved so far, which does indeed have a lot more value than an unproven prospect.

True & I hated that trade at the time. However, Joe Morrow was/still is a prospect & some would say bordering on bust status. Same age as Jurco, but only 2 NHL games w/ multiple organizations (Pit, Dallas, maybe even the Bruins) having lost faith in him. Meanwhile, his ELC is running while he plays in the minors. Compare to Jurco, who has 47 NHL games w/ 17pts. Not stellar numbers, but he is an NHL regular, which is significant as you can get value out of his ELC deal right now.

I guess I just view Jurco as a young NHL roster player given what he has proved so far, which does indeed have a lot more value than an unproven prospect.
- s0rcerer1984

I really dont disagree wth you at all. I wasn't a fan of the Morrow trade when it happened. And I wouldn't advise Detroit to take that deal. But proven top 4 defenseman are rarely on the market and to give up your third or 4th best "prospect" might be worth one shot at the cup. Which, someone like Martin might get them over the hump....and again here we are asking ourselves the same thing they are...do we want to make an eastern team stronger?

I wouldn't bet on a trade like this, but I would enjoy adding that caliber of young player on our roster to go along with Kapanen, Pouliot, Sundqvist, Maatta, Despres, and Bennett.

"Watching" play by play sheets? You mean "reading?" The play by play shows definitely and objectively that HCMJ rolls his lines without regard to zone starts.

You're free to review the play by play to find evidence that shows differently. But you'll find the same pattern I did - 87's line, followed by 71's line, followed by 16's line, followed by 57's line with the occasional anomaly - after icings, after power plays, after TV time outs, end of periods, etc. If it were otherwise, the order would be all over the place, and it's simply not.
- hardnosed

Oooooh my bad, I thought you meant like rewatching the game as in play by play. Not actually documented play by play. My mistake!