Ah, favorable zone starts. Geez, that's one useless statistic.

It assumes that a head coach is going to to interrupt the way he's rolling his lines just so he can put a certain player or players out for a faceoff that your team basically has a 50/50 chance of winning.

I'd say about 1% of all faceoffs include such thinking - end of game, end of period, after an opponent's icing, stuff like that. Otherwise, coaches are rolling their lines first, trying to get matchups second, and worrying about which zone their players are in third.
- hardnosed

How is the above statement not an opinion? Have you interviewed Johnston, or is there an interview somewhere, where he is stating that is how he thinks? If not.. I believe that is an opinion... no?

Yeah most coaches aren't there to read into stats, but they are there to form strategies, and the reason he is putting Sill closer to the opponents goal is because he is a terrible hockey player and that limits the amount of mistakes he can make in his own end, therefore leading to an opposing goal. They aren't concerned with continuity and flow of the game, they are focused on giving their team the best opportunity to win the game.
- j.boyd919

Do you really need advanced stats to make that decision though? Your career will be very short if you put your garbage guys on D zone draws. Just seems like common sense.

Yeah most coaches aren't there to read into stats, but they are there to form strategies, and the reason he is putting Sill closer to the opponents goal is because he is a terrible hockey player and that limits the amount of mistakes he can make in his own end, therefore leading to an opposing goal. They aren't concerned with continuity and flow of the game, they are focused on giving their team the best opportunity to win the game.
- j.boyd919

No, Sill gets 6 out of 10 of his starts in the offensive zone because his line almost always follows Crosby's line. When Crosby's line ends their shift with a whistle, it's far more likely that it's in the offensive zone than in the defensive zone.

And Sill has been on the ice for ZERO, count 'em, ZERO opposition goals this season. He's an above average defensive hockey player, and a below average offensive hockey player. So, you're saying that HCMJ is setting up Sill to fail, and that's supposed to point to some kind of overarching strategy?

What players is he protecting? Crosby? Hornqvist?

The stats don't show that, people bastardize statistics to make it look like they do. And it's not random at all - go look at the current OZS stats - really, go look at them. The guys with the most PP time get the most O starts, the guys with the most PK time get the most D zone starts. Pretty simple stuff, no reason to over-complicate it.
- hardnosed

Considering Crosby and Hornqvist start a lot in the defensive zone while five on five I would say no he doesn't protect them. He protects his fourth line and his bottom defensive pairing. That is very very clear.

How is the above statement not an opinion? Have you interviewed Johnston, or is there an interview somewhere, where he is stating that is how he thinks? If not.. I believe that is an opinion... no?
- j.boyd919

In between that first post on the topic that you're quoting right now and the post that you "disagreed" with is when I went and looked at the play by play, and the play by play confirmed what I surmised through the use of common sense.

Nice try though.

Considering Crosby and Hornqvist start a lot in the defensive zone while five on five I would say no he doesn't protect them. He protects his fourth line and his bottom defensive pairing. That is very very clear.
- usethe1-2-2

5 on 5 OZS - Hornqvist - 51.35%, Crosby, 49.35%

Oh, and Despres is at 51%, and Scuderi is at 50%. So I guess he's "protecting" Letang and Maatta (55.21 & 55.34, respectively)?!?

Do you really need advanced stats to make that decision though? Your career will be very short if you put your garbage guys on D zone draws. Just seems like common sense.
- sammy87

Well, and the best way to "protect" your 4th liners is to not play them much at even strength. So you stick them at the bottom of the batting order and you use TV timeouts, end of periods/starts of periods to limit their number of shifts, and you keep their shifts short.

The reality is that Sill has only been involved in 26 offensive or defensive zone faceoffs the entire season. 2.6 per game. 16 in the offensive zone, 10 in the defensive zone. That's nothing in the grand scheme of things. If the coach is preoccupied with how he's going to use Zach Sill for 2.6 shifts per game, he's mismanaging his time and effort.

Stats make these arguements just terrible to read.

Stats make these arguements just terrible to read.
- dbell646

Do you have the stats and graphs to back that up?

Apart from metrics....Sill can not handle a puck, will never score, is barely fast enough to make any impact with checks because he will be out of position, and is a good fighter.

The fact that he hasnt been on the ice for a goal against this year really means nothing to me....he has played 30 NHL games and hasn't registered a point.

No, Sill gets 6 out of 10 of his starts in the offensive zone because his line almost always follows Crosby's line. When Crosby's line ends their shift with a whistle, it's far more likely that it's in the offensive zone than in the defensive zone.

And Sill has been on the ice for ZERO, count 'em, ZERO opposition goals this season. He's an above average defensive hockey player, and a below average offensive hockey player. So, you're saying that HCMJ is setting up Sill to fail, and that's supposed to point to some kind of overarching strategy?
- hardnosed

But didn't you just say a few minutes ago that MJ rolls lines 1-2-3-4? So you're saying Sill is now on the 2nd line?

In between that first post on the topic that you're quoting right now and the post that you "disagreed" with is when I went and looked at the play by play, and the play by play confirmed what I surmised through the use of common sense.

Nice try though.
- hardnosed

What? Just because you watched play by play and it lends to your side of the argument doesn't mean that it is true. I can easily look at the stats and use that on my side of the argument. That's usually how these things work.

Nice try though.

Niskanen on pace for a 21 point season

Both Niskanen/Orpik on Pace to be -20

Not what the Caps might have been expecting for 11.25 million

I feel most advanced stats are useful when drafting a fantasy team. Outside of that, not sure the benefit. In a close game, at the end you put your best faceoff guy to take the draw that has energy in the D zone. Simple as that. Same on a PP.

Billy Bean made advance stats more common in the book and movie. But the end result was taking a team with a small budget and make them marginally above average, but completely un interesting to watch. Cant sell out playoff games.
- sammy87

I think that they can be a good tool in assembling a real team as well. It can help you find an undervalued guy, or avoid going after an over valued guy.

But for game to game coaching decisions, I can't imagine that they show a coach much that they don't know or see. For the most part, advance stats just quantify what you can see. The coaching staff watches the game develop, and then re-watches film, all while knowing what players were asked to do and when. It's not like you can spend that much time watching your own players, then see a stat sheet, and say "I didn't realize that he was a turnover machine, I thought he played well with the puck..."

But didn't you just say a few minutes ago that MJ rolls lines 1-2-3-4? So you're saying Sill is now on the 2nd line?
- j.boyd919

Totally mis-spoke there, sorry. That was my previous point about why Malkin's OZS 5 on 5 is high. Point remains that in Sill's case, we're talking about 6 faceoffs this season difference in offensive vs. defensive faceoffs. And Sill's biggest advantage is that he's always coming on the ice after a better line, because his line can't follow itself.

Niskanen on pace for a 21 point season

Both Niskanen/Orpik on Pace to be -20

Not what the Caps might have been expecting for 11.25 million
- TheGame316

Orpik is also tied for the league lead with 10 minor penalties.

Orpik is also tied for the league lead with 10 minor penalties.
- rival22

I find it funny that around here last season we tossed around the idea of keeping Orpik for 1 year, for the league minimum, and there was a resounding Heck No

then the first day of free Agency the Crapitals are like

"Please Brooks, Sign Here - 5 years, 5.5 million per"

And we think Scuderi's contract is an anchor.....

What? Just because you watched play by play and it lends to your side of the argument doesn't mean that it is true. I can easily look at the stats and use that on my side of the argument. That's usually how these things work.

Nice try though.
- j.boyd919

"Watching" play by play sheets? You mean "reading?" The play by play shows definitely and objectively that HCMJ rolls his lines without regard to zone starts.

You're free to review the play by play to find evidence that shows differently. But you'll find the same pattern I did - 87's line, followed by 71's line, followed by 16's line, followed by 57's line with the occasional anomaly - after icings, after power plays, after TV time outs, end of periods, etc. If it were otherwise, the order would be all over the place, and it's simply not.

Orpik is also tied for the league lead with 10 minor penalties.
- rival22

That contract will go down as one of the worst all time deals. I know they wanted to add leadership, but they waaaaay over-paid. It's like they negotiated against themselves.

It makes you wonder how much time they spent looking at video of him from the last couple of years....

I find it funny that around here last season we tossed around the idea of keeping Orpik for 1 year, for the league minimum, and there was a resounding Heck No

then the first day of free Agency the Crapitals are like

"Please Brooks, Sign Here - 5 years, 5.5 million per"

And we think Scuderi's contract is an anchor.....
- TheGame316

Orpik hasn't been good in 3 years. Nisk was just kinda meh. Slightly above average, decent middle Dman.

I find it funny that around here last season we tossed around the idea of keeping Orpik for 1 year, for the league minimum, and there was a resounding Heck No

then the first day of free Agency the Crapitals are like

"Please Brooks, Sign Here - 5 years, 5.5 million per"

And we think Scuderi's contract is an anchor.....
- TheGame316

That Orpik contract made zero sense from the start... Niskanen is slightly over paid, but at least it made sense... UFA, weak market, good player, still young, etc. But Orpik was every bit as bad as other terrible contracts in recent years.

Random:

To PIT
1st, Jurco

to DET
Martin
Conditional 3rd(2nd if Martin doesn't resign)

Det would need to clear about $1M in space but otherwise what do you guys think?

For the most part, advance stats just quantify what you can see. The coaching staff watches the game develop, and then re-watches film, all while knowing what players were asked to do and when.
- rival22

And that's why advanced stats are popular - they allow "national" bloggers a shortcut to make comments on teams and players they don't have the time or inclination to watch play the game. And sometimes this applies to single-team bloggers as well.

It reminds me of a couple years back when Peter King (SI's NFL guy) admitted that he doesn't have much time to watch football outside of the games he covers for TV or SI. So, the guy gets paid to comment on league-wide action without actually watching the players he comments about. A fan with Sunday Ticket has a better shot at seeing guys play than a hack like King who spends more time in airports than in front of game film. That confession made it perfectly obvious why he once touted Jake Plummer for league MVP one preseason, and it made it obvious why he always spent so much time writing about coffee.

Random:

To PIT
1st, Jurco

to DET
Martin
Conditional 3rd(2nd if Martin doesn't resign)

Det would need to clear about $1M in space but otherwise what do you guys think?
- YouMeAndDupuis9

Why would Detroit rent Paul Martin? They have 5 D under contract for the next two years, plus Brendan Smith.

Bennett cleared for contact and down to WBS for conditioning stint.

http://www.post-gazette.c...nton/stories/201411030169

WBS has games Nov. 7, 8, & 9th. Guessing he missed the Pens games vs. the Wild (Nov. 4), Jets (Nov. 6), and Sabres (Nov. 8) anbd re-joins the NHL club for the Nov. 11 game v. the Rangers, maybe?