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Three-Year RelCorsi% Fun

August 6, 2014, 2:00 PM ET [76 Comments]
Travis Yost
Ottawa Senators Blogger • RSSArchiveCONTACT
Over at The Sporting News, I touched on the fifteen NHL skaters who have seen negative RelativeCorsi% (the shot differential a team holds when Player X is on the ice versus off) continue to diminish over the years. It's not a great group of guys -- some of them don't have contracts, and those who do have smaller deals. And Andy MacDonald. Go check that out if you're interested in that sort of stuff -- though I think the most intriguing player in that group is actually veteran Dennis Seidenberg.

Anyways, I've had people throw questions my way about other players. And with access to the larger file, I'm not averse to a day of throwing some quick RelativeCorsi% comparison graphs in here.

Here's one I especially enjoy to start things off -- a quick comparison of a bunch of defenders on the move this summer against an under-contract defender who has really come into his own as a first-pairing guy, Victor Hedman.



I wish there were a niche betting market in which one could wager whether Player X would out-perform Player Y. I'd take significantly unfavorable odds and still back Anton Stralman against the likes of Brooks Orpik or Andy MacDonald, for one example.

How about everyone's favorite plus-possession guys in the bottom-six?



I found it mildly entertaining that David Moss was actually forced into a position where he had to (at least temporarily) consider playing in Europe for a year.

How about our favorite shot generating forwards? These guys rack up the shots every year. How does it translate to RelativeCorsi%?



It's a shame we're really going to start coming out of the Alex Ovechkin Era sometime soon. Of course, I think he's still got two, three more years of elite production left. And his underlying numbers are still solid, to say nothing of his fifty-one goal year last season. Perhaps Washington should invest in finding guys who can play when Ovechkin's off of the ice.

How about a random assortment of forwards who signed deals this summer?



Tanner Glass might be the worst regular skater in the National Hockey League. Three years.

How about two guys traded for each other?



The disparity says enough about this, but I also would caution against reading anything into Briere's OK numbers last year. He's turning 37, he really only experienced a RelativeCorsi% spike due to Montreal's weirdly average regular season .. and again, Parenteau's pretty good at hockey.

How about some of the league's elite defenders (sorry, no Erik Karlsson -- his 2012-2013 season doesn't provide enough GP/TOI):



Zdeno Chara's indisputably one of the best defenders in history, and his effect on Corsi% for basically most of his playing career is Lidstrom-esque. Counterpoint: the guy isn't a robot, and at some point, age regression's going to sting. It's probably already stinging, to some degree anyway. Of course, we hold Chara to Chara standards, and everyone else to regular, human being standards.

Suter has long struck me as a bit overrated, though he's still obviously a first-pairing guy. PK Subban and Drew Doughty are elite and paid accordingly.

Last: how about a list of guys rumored to be on the trade block? And I'll throw Bobby Ryan in there, too -- not that he's on the trade block right now, but as an expiring contract, he's going to generate a ton of interest from other teams as a potential rental.



I know San Jose's pulling back on the dumb 'trade Joe Thornton!' thing, but I would've been seriously interested in what he could've returned in a potential move. Again, like Chara, another elite talent where potential age regression hovers over. But, even at 35, he's just drilling the opposition with consistency. And, again, even at 35 -- how many centers in the league are you taking over him right now? There are a few. But that's it. A few.

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