We have received some interesting information regarding the cap, how it will increase, and what that will mean for teams moving forward. For those not aware, the cap has remained essentially stagnant over the past few years due to loss of revenue due to COVID. This has placed many teams in difficult situations, juggling their roster to remain cap compliant. The Oilers, for example, are likely going to enter the season running a 21 man roster instead of the usual 23 man.
Now we know the NHL owners and GM's are being given word about what to expect for their cap over the next few seasons. Here are the current estimates:
- The cap for this season is 82.5 million
- In 23/24 the cap will increase to 83.5 million
- In 24/25 the cap will have a large increase, estimated to be between 87.5-88 million
- In 25/26 it will increase again to an estimated 92 million
While we are just barely getting into the beginning of the 22/23 season and a far way away from the 25/26 season. I thought it would be good to take a look at the long term effects this will have on the Oilers roster, what type of space the team will have, and how things could look moving forward.
22/23
As I have discussed in previous blogs, the Oilers will likely run a 21 man roster to start the season. This roster will have Holloway on it, as well as at least one league minimum option (Benson, Malone, etc) as well as waiving one of Janmark or Ryan. The roster below just barely comes in under the cap.
It's a tough situation and even one minor injury that keeps a player out for a short amount of time and not on LTIR will have rough consequences, using emergency callups and likely having to play a man short on some occasions.
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23/24
After this season, the cap is expected to go up another 1 million; not a large sum at all but in addition to that increase, the Oilers will garner more cap savings as both Lucic's salary (750,000) and the 1.5 million from the Andrej Sekera buyout will come off the books.
This gives Edmonton roughly 13.3 million dollars in cap space to address the following holes in the roster:
Most of the main core remains intact with just a few key RFA's in McLeod, Bouchard, Skinner, and potentially Puljujarvi to be extended. This isn't meant to be a "build a roster" exercise but let's assume some general contracts for McLeod, Bouchard, and Skinner and say Puljujarvi is traded.
This leaves 1.745 million in cap-space. The team could clear up more cap space here by trading players we have discussed at length this off-season in Barrie (4.5 million) and Foegele (2.75 million). Both would have only one year remaining on their contracts, making them easier to trade.
Ultimately, the Oilers should be in a good position to keep their main roster together, sign their key RFA players to long term contracts as opposed to bridging them, and have space to make additional tweaks to the roster.
24/25
Here is where the fun begins. If we trust the expectations, the cap this season could be all the way up to 88 million. Based off of the hypothetical signings of Bouchard, McLeod, and Skinner. The Oilers would have somewhere around 18 million dollars in cap space.
The big RFA's the Oilers will be looking at prior to the start of this season will be Broberg, Yamamoto, and Holloway. It is too far out for me to give any logical number to these players contracts. The promising fact is that the main core forward group remains fairly intact with most of the key defensemen locked up as well. By this time there should be other current prospects such as Bourgault, Schaefer, Samorukov, Niemelainen, Tulio, and Savoie that are either in the lineup, close to becoming regulars, or simply not a factor and out of the system.
This will likely be a wild free agency as this will represent the first time the cap has increased at such a high rate. Guys are going to get paid. Edmonton will have enough cap space at this time to make a key addition or two but they will also need to be careful with how much cap they leave themselves with, because two key contract extensions will be looming...
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25/26 and beyond
The cap is going up at the exact right time for the Edmonton Oilers. Leon Draisaitl's contract ends after the 24/25 season and McDavid's ends after the 25/26 season. Assuming both players do wish to remain in Edmonton, it is clear they are going to get big raises.
Both players are elite and arguably the top two players in the NHL and at the very least two of the top five players in the NHL. With the cap increasing, both of these men could get 15 million a season...perhaps more. While that seems like a huge number, in terms of the actual cap for the team it is right on the money.
Draisaitl's current contract of 8.5 million is a steal for the team. Draisaitl's cap hit equates to 10.3% of the current cap ceiling of 82.5 million. McDavid's contract of 12.5 million is 15.2% of the current cap. Should Draisaitl get a 15 million dollar deal in 25/26 that will equal 17% of the team's cap ceiling of 88 million. The following year is McDavid took the same amount of money, both players would be making 16.3% of the expected cap of 92 million; well in line with the current percentage that McDavid is making.
This last part involved much more math and a bunch of speculation but the bottom line is clear; the Edmonton Oilers should be in a good position over the next 4-5 seasons to keep their roster competitive and financially have the ability to lock up their best players at long term deals that still allow them to make other additions. The biggest asterisk on all of this will be the success of the team over these next three seasons to ensure that McDavid and Draisaitl actually want to stay in Edmonton and believe it is their best chance at hopefully more Stanley Cups.
Thanks for reading.
Edmonton Oilers Blogger • 
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