October is a tough month to get a handle on what teams are showing future trends and which teams are just in a random small sample misleading us. The Pittsburgh Penguins are only six games into the year and we aren’t going to know which is true for a little while. The best you can do is notice trends, hypothesize about them, and be aware of them as the sample continues to grow.
The trend through six games is that the Penguins are leaning on a group of five players to drive play.
Only five players are above the 50% mark per Corsica. It is the top pairing with Kris Letang and Brian Dumoulin and the top line with Sidney Crosby, Jake Guenetzel, and Bryan Rust. The Letang pairing has played the most time with the Crosby line. There is a direct correlation between the only competent defense pairing and possession right now.
Evgeni Malkin and Phil Kessel are top end offensive players so they have the ability to overcome bad possession and still make their mark on the games, but you’d rather they get more looks than not in the offensive zone and not rely on shooting percentage.
The bottom six has been a rough go.
So what can be done to help? Mike Sullivan could keep things the same and hope the Crosby line continues to drive play at a high rate and that the Malkin line can PDO their way to success and hope the bottom six isn’t terrible (they have been).
Another option is to get Letang away from the Crosby line in order to help out the other lines move up the ice. This could be tricky because you still want Letang and Dumoulin to play against the other team’s best players and maybe you don’t want the bottom six taking on that competition. There is no easy answer here if the second and third defense pairings don’t show some signs of life. The Justin Schultz injury is really bad. The team doesn’t have anything close to a replacement. They don’t have a natural right defender other than Letang right now. The only other option is Chad Ruhwedel, who is a depth player.
Moving Brian Dumoulin off of the Letang pairing is another option. Olli Maatta would be fine alongside Kris Letang. If Brian Dumoulin isn’t a complimentary player then you need to spread the wealth. You aren’t ever going to get results with Maatta this year if he plays with the non-Letang guys. It’s just not going to happen. If you can get similar production with the top pairing that includes Maatta and help out one of the other pairings with Dumoulin that would be a net gain. Again, there are no great options here.
A big reason why this is the trend to follow is that if the Penguins get the kind of goaltending they got last year this has the chance to get bad quick. The reality is that 47% possession teams with below average goaltending don’t fare well in the standings. We don’t know what kind of goaltending the Penguins are going to get from Matt Murray yet. The Toronto game was awesome and the other games were the opposite. It’s too early in the year.
The Penguins will never be confused with a defensive team. Right now the only time they can play to their strengths is when the Letang pairing is on the ice. The ability to attack needs to outweigh their CA/60 which is 27th so far this season.
If we are having the same discussion in a month the team is going to have to make some sort of move to shore up their defense... unless Kris Letang can play 40 minutes a night.
Thanks for reading!
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