The theme of this draft has been the Blue Jackets unconventional picks, but picking Emil Bemstrom in the fourth round at 117th overall they went with a much more traditional pick and it looks like they found themselves a very good prospect.
Bemstrom is a centre/right winger standing 5’11. He played in Sweden for Leksands IF, spending the majority of the season in the SuperElit. He was born in June of 1999, putting him on the younger side of this draft class. We’ve spent a lot of time in these past few posts discussing the value in older players, but we must not forget there is real value in young prospects like Bemstrom. Corey Pronman of ESPN wrote about this topic back in February 2016 and he found that among CHL drafted players there was a noticeable difference in a players NHL points per game based off of their birth month. I imagine a similar trend would occur if other leagues were included.
Bemstrom is young but that hasn’t stopped him from being a very successful player. He put up 33 points in 28 games in the SuperElit including 21 goals. The SuperElit only plays a 45 game season so there are not many players who score 20 goals. Bemstrom was one of just eight players in the league to hit 20, and he was the only one to play in fewer than 40 games. To put that scoring rate into context, there have been just 48 players in the history of the SuperElit to be under 18 years old and score 20 goals per Elite Prospects. Of those 48 just 12 scored at the 0.75 rate or above that Bemstrom did. Among those 12 you have some really great NHL players like Daniel Sedin, Anze Kopitar, and Alexander Steen, and some up and coming prospects in Joel Erikson Ek and Carl Grundstrom.
Bemstrom is able to rack up these goals because of his strong skating and scoring instincts. The Hockey Prospect Blackbook mentions that skating ability, stating Bemstrom “is a skater with very good edge work…(and) can generate very good speed through the neutral zone.” Bemstrom represented Sweden at the World U18’s and he impressed the HP scouts there as well. He used his speed to blow past aggressive defencemen and used his shiftiness to dart in and out of traffic to put himself into good positions to use his shot.
You can see in that highlight pack what the scouts are talking about. He uses his speed very well and is able to get past defencemen easily. The great release is evident; he likes to fire the puck from everywhere. “He has a knack for cutting to the middle of the ice and releasing the puck quickly, using the opposing defencmen as a screen. This move created havoc in viewings of him at the World U18’s, as he hit some posts and created some big rebounds from long range shots.”
At the junior level this shooting tendency is fine. Bemstrom is able to beat goalies from a ways out, but this is not something that is going to work in the pro game. This might be part of the reason Bemstrom only received five games in the SHL and was held pointless. Professional goalies do not get beat from that far out very often.
The good news though is that he doesn’t seem married to this move. Looking at some of his better games in the SuperElit he gets himself into high scoring areas, in tight on the goalie and into the slot where his shot is the most deadly.
He does well here to get himself in tight on the goalie where he uses good instincts and hands to wait out the goalie and score. On the power play that one-timer is lethal. Junior goalies have no chance and even professionals would have trouble stopping it. With his skating and shot he has a nice base which to build upon, but he is far from a perfect player.
He’s not known for his defensive play and for all the credit he gets for his goal scoring, he does need to improve his playmaking. If we go back to those 12 players who scored 0.75 goals per game from above, Bemstrom actually had the second lowest points per game because of his lack of assists. Looking at the original 48 players, Bemstrom’s 1.18 points per game rate is tied for 26th, which puts him around players like Filip Ahl and Jonathan Dahlen. That’s not a knock on either Ahl or Dahlen, they are both solid NHL prospects, but they are a far cry from the Sedin and Kopitar comps from before. There is a reason Bemstrom fell to the fourth round.
Despite that Bemstrom still has a reasonable chance of becoming an NHL regular. Over at Canucks Army they rated Bemstrom 89th in their draft rankings and using their Prospect Graduation Probabilities System (pGPS), they gave Bemstrom a 16.3% chance of playing 200+ games in the NHL. They also found some very interesting comps.
Some of his statistical comparables here include Nicklas Backstrom and Frans Nielsen, who scored 0 and 1 points respectively in their draft seasons while playing in the SHL, both in more games than Bemstrom played.
Bemstrom didn’t score in his five games in the SHL, but that’s ok, just playing in that league, especially as a 17 year old is a very good sign. There were 26 statistical comps for Bemstrom, five of whom went on to play 200+ NHL games. Those five have averaged 56.3 points per 82 games over their careers, suggesting that if Bemstrom makes the NHL it will be as an impact player. With Bemstrom’s shot it’s not hard to think he could be an impact player someday, especially on the power play.
Hockey in the simplest terms is a goal scoring contest. Emil Bemstrom can score, and scores a lot. He has a great shot and can beat goalies from seemingly anywhere on the ice. He has good scoring instincts and moves well on the ice. He impressed scouts at the World U18’s, and impressed enough in the SuperElit to play five games in the SHL as a 17yr old. He still has things to work on, like his playmaking abilities but if everything breaks right Bemstrom has a chance to be an impact NHL player. The Blue Jackets and their fans will be following Bemstrom very closely next season as he looks to spend a full season playing professionally in the Allsvenskan.
Columbus Blue Jackets Blogger • 
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