Before I being with part three of the capfriendly armchair GM lineups breakdown, I’d like to remind you all that you can DM me on
Twitter or send me a PM here if you would like your lineup featured/analyzed (will likely do one or two more of these). Today I thought I’d search out a lineup on capfriendly that had a different angle to the ones that I’ve featured so far.
Littlejerryseinfeld’s roster build
Data/viz courtesy of Naturalstattrick.com and Hockeyviz.com
Note: Overages and potential compliance buyouts not calculated
RFA:
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Only one long term contract handed out amongst the restricted free agents here, as Victor Olofsson gets his pay day on a five year deal. I’ve mentioned my reservations going long term with Olofsson in the past, you’re betting on the literal or perceived talent turning into good on ice results rather than on ice results turning into wins added. It’s not like these gambles don’t ever pay off, Ivan Provorov is a great recent example of that, but historically these tend to go sideways more often than going right. Although given the lack of depth up front you could certainly make the argument that it’s a necessary high risk signing.
UFA:
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I like re-signing Johan Larsson at that price, but I’d also be extremely surprised if he would accept a number under 2 million. There will be interest and defensive forwards market value is tougher to gauge, but a centre with a good reputation in his 20’s will almost always generate some kind of bidding war, which is likely to drive the price north of the 1.875 he is signed for here.
Dadonov was once a top 10 player in terms of wins above replacement, and though it may not be the case anymore he was still on his way to matching or even exceeding his career high in goals at 28. He’s the second-best forward option after Taylor Hall, but this is a signing the Sabres should pass on. Dadonov is 31 years old and even a modest 4 year term could be a potential cap crippler if his offensive production starts taking a dip. It’s a worthwhile gamble if you’re a team that’s a winger away from being a legitimate cup contender, at the point you don’t really care what happens after your cup window. However, for a team in transition, it’s essentially to look for good value in free agency, which this deal is not.
Trades:
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This is where all the action is for this build so I’ll start with the smaller moves first. With Brian Elliot’s contract expiring I can see why they’ve chose Philadelphia as the spot to dump Hutton’s contract. I personally have a hard time believing anyone would take the final year of his deal, even at the low cost of a 6th rounder, but I’ve been surprised before.
In turn, the open goaltending slot is filled by sending a 2nd round pick to Arizona for Antti Raanta. He finished 23rd/54 in goals saved above average and 26th in expected goals against. In other words he got slightly above average defensive play in front of him and produced slightly above average results compared to other goalies with 1000 minutes or more played. An ideal backup choice, but a 2nd round pick is a rather steep price. On the other hand, draft picks after pick 24 are basically lottery tickets so if that’s the price for stable goaltending it’s probably worth it.
Assuming there are no major changes to the draft lottery, the pick New Jersey is sending here for Rasmus Ristolainen would be anywhere from 10-13th overall (the Coyotes retain the pick and send a 2021 1st to New Jersey if the 2020 1st rounder is in the top 3). The fan base is still very divided on Ristolainen but I believe most would agree that his market value has taken a tumble over the last year or two. That and the fact that the Devils hockey analytics department includes some of the smartest minds in hockey leads me to believe that this isn’t a trade that’s going to happen anytime soon.
The Sam Reinhart trade is an interesting concept. If Logan Couture was a few years younger I might be all over this, but at 31 years old and seven years left on his deal, Im not sure this makes sense for the Sabres. The reason I found this deal intriguing is that it brings the Sabres what most fans think a Sean Monahan swap would. Lots of Sabres fans have Monahan in their armchair lineups but he’s never had the shooting talent to make up for the on-ice impact or vice versa.
While Couture’s on ice impacts have always been middle six level, the shooting talent is consistently among the best in the league, and that is a very valuable skill to have. If you’re going to move Reinhart, this is what you should be aiming for. Unfortunately, we don’t know how long that elite shooting talent can hold out for considering he’s on the wrong side of 30. That and a no trade clause with a tight list of just three teams he would accept a move to makes this a really difficult deal to make. Though he is a proud Bills fan so who knows.
Final Roster:
Roster Size: 23
Salary Cap: 81,500,000
Cap Hit: 79,690,833
Overages: 0
Bonuses: 4,337,500
Cap Space: 1,809,167
Olofsson-Eichel-Dadonov
Skinner-Couture-Cozens
Johansson-Mittelstadt-Kahun
Thompson-Larsson-Okposo
Dahlin-Montour
McCabe-Jokiharju
Pilut-Miller
Raanta
Ullmark
Im usually all for the high risk/high reward plays and this lineup certainly has the potential to be dominant next year if the top six plays as projected. However, they’re also just as likely if not more to come up short and the Dadonov and Couture contracts could crush any potential upcoming cup window the Sabres have.
I gather given that Dylan Cozens has been placed at right wing that these are also projected lines. Having Cozens in the top six sure makes it look better on paper, but I think having him at third line centre in place of Mittelstadt is in everyone’s best interest. If Mittelstadt is getting another shot in the NHL it should probably be on the wing, with Domink Kahun moving up to the 2nd line right wing spot. The Sabres would also likely be better off swapping Jokiharju and Montour on the pairings, as the former showed the ability to handle tough competition over the last 15-20 games before the league pressed pause.
Thanks for reading!
Buffalo Sabres Blogger • 
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