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In Hainsight: What to Expect from Cole Caufield |
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Follow me @KarineHains for all updates about the Montreal Canadiens and women's hockey
When Cole Caufield had to call it quits last season to undergo shoulder surgery, he was on pace for scoring 46 goals in a full 82 game season. Should we expect more of the same from the diminutive forward this upcoming season or was his 16.5% shooting percentage unsustainable? Will the weight of his new contract get in his head, and will he be overcome with the pressure cooker that Montreal can be? Will he stay healthy?
I’ve seen plenty of comments on social media questioning Caufield’s ability to stay healthy and I think that’s thoroughly unfair. Since joining the Canadiens towards the end of the 2021 season, Caufield has only had one serious injury, the one which forced him to stop playing in January and undergo shoulder surgery. To say the sniper is prone to injury would be tremendously unfair. Sure, he is undersized for an NHL player, but the fact that he’s already sustained a serious injury doesn’t mean he’s injury prone, let’s give the man a chance to come back and get a few more seasons under his belt before making such a statement.
As for his shooting percentage, 16.5% is indeed quite high and he may not be sustainable, but some players have done it. Let’s take a look at Alexander Ovechkin’s numbers, the Capitals sharpshooter has won nine Rocket Richard trophies as the NHL top goal scorer throughout his career and can really be described as the best of the best when it comes to goal scoring. His career shooting percentage sits at 12.9% but his best season saw him score on 15.09% of his shots. Last season, he scored 52 goals on 425 shots for a 12.5% success rate.
If you want to look at a younger player, whether you like it or not, Auston Matthews is one of the top goal scorers and he has two Rocket Richard trophies to his name. He received the honor in 2021 when he scored 41 goals in just 52 games sporting an 18.5% shooting percentage and when he got it in 2022, it was for scoring 60 times in 70 games with an 17.2% success rate. In 7 seasons, he’s scoring on 15.7% of his shots.
Logic would therefore dictate that Caufield cannot possibly keep scoring at that rate, at least not just yet. While the youngster has got a wicked shot, he’s not as good as Ovechkin or Matthews and to suggest otherwise would be ludicrous, but it’s also true that he has yet to reach his ceiling. Furthermore, as he develops and improves, Caufield should take an increased number of shots and that should in turn translate to more goals. I expect his shooting percentage to go down this season, but I believe it’s quite realistic to expect a 40-goal season for the youngster, that in itself would be quite a feat in Montreal, even former team captain Max Paccioretty didn’t manage to reach that landmark, scoring 39 in 2013-2014. The last players to do it were Damphousse in 1993-1994 and Bellows in 1992-1993.
Could the weight of his new contract slow Caufield down? It’s not out of the realm of possibilities, but I would be quite surprised if this was the case. I’ve rarely seen a player look as happy and loose as Caufield. When he’s playing hockey and scoring goals, he looks like a young boy playing on a frozen pond and having the time of his life. Since Martin St-Louis took over, Caufield has looked like the happiest man on earth and let’s face it, the pressure was on last season in the last year of his entry level contract, and it didn’t get to him. Now that the team has put in faith in him for eight more years, his mind should be at ease.
So, what should we expect from the Habs’ most potent offensive weapon? Goals, goals, goals and more goals. Riding shotgun with Nick Suzuki on the team’s first line and on the first power play, Caufield will do what he does best and lit up both the goal lamp and the Bell Center. He’ll once again be one of the most entertaining players wearing the Sainte-Flanelle and it will be the case for years to come…
Montreal Canadiens Blogger • 
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