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2021-22 Buffalo Sabres: 4C – Cody Eakin |
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Sabres fans are not going to want to hear this.
When building the Sabres roster originally, it was easy to envision Vinnie Hinostroza centering Zemgus Girgensons and Kyle Okposo, and while it’s true that Hinostroza can play right wing or center, there was no one on that imaginary line who could take faceoffs all that well. In fact, out of Okposo, Hinostroza and Girgensons, it is Okposo who actually has the best career faceoff percentage of the trio at 48%. There’s another factor at play here, too: The Sabres have to get to the cap floor and it’s possible that they’ll need Eakin’s $2.25m to get there.
Could there be an upset whereby Sean Malone unseats Eakin and puts him in the press box? Sure, but it seems unlikely. While it’s possible that a relative unknown like Malone, Brett Murray or John Hayden rise above Eakin on the depth chart to force Girensons back to center and Eakin to watch as a healthy scratch, Eakin is the incumbent and someone who has a guaranteed contract. Keep in mind that this isn’t my preferred outcome or what I’d like to see, but rather my guess at what comes to be following the conclusion of training camp.
There is a contingent of the fanbase that think faceoffs don’t matter and that the Sabres can find salary elsewhere, but the bottom line is Eakin is here, he is good at faceoffs and he plays center, so here we are. It’s certainly not the ideal scenario and it’s definitely not the analytic decision, but Cody Eakin likely slots into the lineup, and this is as good of a place as any to put him.
Feel free to start raging internally if it helps.
Eakin was brought aboard the Sabres organization during the summer of 2020 when the organization was by-and-large run by former coach Ralph Krueger. The Sabres opted to give the veteran center the aforementioned 2 year, $2.25m per season deal with the idea that he could put up double-digit goals while replacing Johan Larsson in the bottom-six. That, uh, didn’t work and Eakin finished the season with 7 points in 46 games with a -9. He also found himself a healthy scratch when Don Granato took over the Sabres in mid-March. Eakin was not only a downgrade from Johan Larsson in terms of defensive impacts, but he was also somehow a down grade in terms of offensive impacts. Not great, Bob!
Let’s talk a little bit about what Eakin will bring to the table on the offensive side of the puck. Eakin has never been an analytic darling except for the two seasons where his goal totals haven risen well above his career average: the first was in 2014-15 when he potted 19 goals with the Dallas Stars, and the second was in 2018-19 when he scored 22 goals with the Vegas Golden Knights. For those thinking that the goal totals were a fluke, it’s worth mentioning Eakin’s expected goals above replacement (xGAR) were similar to his actual goals above replacement (GAR) which indicates that he was actually contributing to push the offense in those seasons.
I did some digging on those seasons to find out who his most common linemates were to see if there was any correlation between the quality of his teammates and his offensive impacts. According to dobberhockey.com’s frozen tools, his most common linemates on that 2018-19 season with the Golden Knights were Max Pacioretty and Alex Tuch. So that appears to answer why Eakin was generating good offensive underlying statistics: he was being carried by two supremely talented players. Pairing him with Girgensons and Okposo is not going to have the same outcome.
In terms of defense, the analytics have always been poor, and they don’t figure to improve at this late stage in his career. A leopard doesn’t change its spots as the old adage goes so it doesn’t make too much sense to expect that a 30-year-old Eakin will improve on his dismal defensive numbers. His defensive numbers with the Golden Knights during his best offensive season than they were with the Sabres this past season so there’s not really much sense to pretend that the impacts will improve. Neither does it make any sense to pretend that Eakin isn’t under contract for a team that needs to hit the salary cap floor, so here we are with Eakin on the opening night roster.
If there’s some glimmer of hope for Sabres fans who don’t enjoy watching Eakin it’s that Don Granato did indeed choose to scratch him for a few games near the end of the season. Perhaps Granato will opt to input a young camp standout like the aforementioned Malone or Murray, or he could shift Girgensons to center and opt to insert Drake Caggiula into the lineup on the right side. By no means is this roster written in stone. At the present moment, though, Eakin figures to be part of the 23-man roster due to the contract status, the Sabres’ need to get to the cap floor, and his ability to take faceoffs (for whatever that’s worth). It’s likely going to be another year with Eakin on the Sabres.
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