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How Leafs Can Succeed In Berube’s Systen in 25-26. From John |
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The Toronto Maple Leafs underwent a noticeable shift in playing style this season, one that leaned into north-south, forecheck-heavy hockey. Whether or not you agree with the change in direction, the reality is clear: this is the path they’ve committed to with the hiring of Craig Berube. The Leafs finished 29th in Corsi percentage at 5-on-5, 23rd in expected goals for percentage, and 15th in high-danger chances for percentage. Contrary to the belief that they were generating fewer shots but better chances, they were poor at both. Letting the opponent dictate play and being forced into a reactive game is not a sustainable model for success.
The St. Louis Blues at their peak under Berube, specifically the year they won the Cup, were a physical, forecheck-heavy team that consistently posted strong possession metrics. That season, they finished 10th in Corsi percentage at 52%, 6th in expected goals for percentage at 53%, and 2nd in high-danger chances for percentage at 55%. All four lines contributed and played significant minutes. Berube utilized players like Barbashev and Steen on the fourth line and Thomas on the third, creating a balanced and relentless team. Berube also typically deployed a power forward on each line to help sustain momentum in the offensive zone. The goal isn’t to replicate another team’s blueprint, doing so often backfires. We’ve seen examples like the Vancouver Canucks trying to morph into the Bruins after losing to them in 2011, a shift that ultimately didn’t suit their personnel and led to their decline. The Leafs’ goal should be adapting the right elements to maximize the roster and finding forward combinations that make Berube’s system more effective.
Here’s a version of the forward group if Marner stays:
Mantha ($1.1M), Matthews ($13.25M), Nylander ($11.5M)
Knies ($7M), Tavares ($5M), Marner ($13M)
McMann ($1.35M), Domi ($3.75M), Robertson ($875K)
Laughton ($1.5M), Kampf ($2.4M), Holmberg ($800K)
Let’s address the elephant in the room: yes, this does look a lot like running it back. However, this year’s playoff struggles weren’t solely about depth scoring. The top lines were hemmed in and couldn’t create offensive pressure, while Domi’s line, though sheltered, did provide scoring depth in the playoffs. Adding Anthony Mantha allows the Leafs to capitalize on a market inefficiency with a player who was injured this season but produced at a 40+ point pace in the past. He finished last season in the 83rd percentile in speed bursts and 66th percentile in skating distance. At 6-foot-5, Mantha brings size and speed, adding another power forward to Berube’s system. With his ability to play off the rush and cycle the puck in the offensive zone, Mantha would complement Matthews and Nylander well while fitting seamlessly into Berube’s offense by providing speed and directness. Tavares and Marner have proven chemistry and can be deployed as a matchup line.The biggest risk lies with the third line, as that combination has struggled to exit the zone in the past. Still, betting on Robertson’s work rate and development is a smart gamble. I would expect him to take a leap in his third year, which aligns with the typical growth curve for middle-six forwards. The fourth line can play against any opponent and reliably carry the puck from the defensive zone to the offensive zone.
A balanced attack without Marner could look like this:
Ehlers ($8M), Matthews ($13.25M), Domi ($3.75M)
McMann ($1.35M), Tavares ($5M), Nylander ($11.5M)
Knies ($7M), Bennett ($7M) / Duchene ($7M), Robertson ($875K)
Laughton ($1.5M), Kampf ($2.4M), Holmberg ($800K)
Ehlers is a zone entry machine with speed and a willingness to shoot off the rush, and he may be due for increased production with more minutes, as he’s been underutilized with the Jets. The McMann–Tavares–Nylander line looked good analytically and created chances in the playoffs when deployed. I would be concerned about Bennett’s lack of production and contract demands, yet he and Knies would form an aggressive forecheck line, allowing Robertson to capitalize on turnovers. Alternatively, Duchene adds speed and offensive production, complementing the Leafs’ top nine well.
There is a formula for making Berube’s system work and for generating more chances while controlling possession—either by identifying market inefficiencies that fit his style or by building deeper forward lines that execute his system effectively and attack in waves.
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