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WSH 3, FLA 4 (OT) - Quick Recap + Massive Series Data Analysis

May 14, 2022, 11:16 AM ET [11 Comments]
Brian Sickles
Washington Capitals Blogger • RSSArchiveCONTACT
Hello All,

The Washington Capitals lost to the Florida Panthers by a score of 4-3 in OT last night. The Florida Panthers have officially eliminated the Capitals by winning the best of seven series 4-2. The Capitals will likely reflect back on the series think what could have been. The series was ripe for the taking but game after game, the Capitals failed to take advantage of those pivotal moments. A big congrats to the Florida Panthers on winning this competitive series. I thought all-in-all, it was a great series for both teams. Each team had exciting story-lines to follow and most of the games were pretty darn close. As a Capitals fan, I am super proud of this team. Many media "pundits" picked the Caps to miss the playoffs heading into this season. Many of those same pundits picked the Caps to lose this series in 4 or 5 games. I am proud of the Capitals effort this postseason against the President Trophy winners. Today I did a quick breakdown of the game but more importantly I compiled all the stats from all six games and the data is pretty compelling!


Here are the stats from the game six:

Shots on Goal:
WSH – 37
FLA – 31

Shots on Goal (5v5):
WSH – 29
FLA – 28

Corsi For %:
WSH – 55.28%
FLA – 44.72%

Corsi For % (5v5):
WSH – 52.48%
FLA – 47.52%

Power Play:
WSH – 1/4
FLA – 0/2

Hits:
WSH – 51
FLA – 50

Blocks:
WSH – 15
FLA – 19

Scoring Chances For:
WSH – 30
FLA – 23

Scoring Chances For (5v5):
WSH – 22
FLA – 20

High Danger Chances For:
WSH– 20
FLA – 10

High Danger Chances For (5v5):
WSH – 14
FLA – 8

xGF:
WSH – 3.81
FLA – 2.25

xGF (5v5):
WSH – 2.55
FLA – 1.90

My Game Six Takeaway:

For game six, the Capitals played one of their best games of the series at home. They had to. As you can see above, the Capitals held advantages for a majority of all key metrics. Yet, the Caps found themselves down 3-2 late in the third. It took a miracle PPG for the Caps to tie the game late and send it to OT. The Panthers were in a similar situation in game four. The Panthers were the better team that game but trailed late. The Panthers scored to tie it late with the extra man and eventually went on to win in OT. The Capitals were able to send it to OT but could not replicate getting the win. In game six of the series, the Caps defense had some key breakdowns and Samsonov did not play his best game. I thought Samsonov was great all series but last night allowed a really soft goal when the Panthers tied it up 2-2. The Goal scored by Claude Giroux on the rush was counted as a "low danger" goal allowed. Translation...it was a soft goal... and at a critical moment of the game! It was a painful way to lose a series but great teams finishes games and the Capitals were unable to finish this game and a majority of games this series.

Here are the total stats from the SERIES:

Shots on Goal:
WSH – 182 / 30.33 shots per game
FLA – 199 / 33.16 shots per game
Advantage Florida

Shots on Goal (5v5):
WSH – 128 / 21.33 shots per game
FLA – 164 / 27.33 shots per game
Advantage Florida

Corsi For %:
WSH – 48.488%
FLA – 52.52%
Advantage Florida

Corsi For % (5v5):
WSH – 43.71%
FLA – 56.29%
Advantage Florida

Power Play:
WSH – 7/24
FLA – 0/18
Advantage Washington

Hits:
WSH – 305
FLA – 298
Advantage Florida *Every team that led in hits in a game lost that game this series*

Blocks:
WSH – 94
FLA – 70
Advantage Florida

Scoring Chances For:
WSH – 160
FLA – 183
Advantage Florida

Scoring Chances For (5v5):
WSH – 126
FLA – 143
Advantage Florida

High Danger Chances For:
WSH– 82
FLA – 77
Advantage Washington

High Danger Chances For (5v5):
WSH – 61
FLA – 58
Advantage Washington

Goals Scored:
WSH – 19
FLA – 20
Advantage Florida

Goals Scored 5v5:
WSH – 12
FLA – 19
Advantage Florida

xGF:
WSH – 20.07
FLA – 18.26
Advantage Washington

xGF (5v5):
WSH – 12.53
FLA – 13.05
Advantage Florida

My Takeaways from the Series Stats:

Opening Thought - The Panthers were the better team this series. I may have been quick to call the Caps the better team in the series in earlier blogs. For me as a bias Caps fan, its hard to see your team lose when they are in extremely favorable positions. The game four collapse, the game five blown three-goal lead...these are both situations where the the team with the lead usually wins. In addition, the Panthers went 0 for 18 on the power play! How many teams in NHL history have won a best of seven series that went to six games without scoring a power play goal? A low percentage if I had to guess. This series upset was ripe for the taking and the Caps couldn't seal the deal. Situationally speaking, the Caps blew this series. Analytically speaking, the Panthers were the better team for the series and for 60+minutes each game.

5v5 Play - The Panthers had to rely on their 5v5 play to win this series. Not only did they win the 5v5 game, they dominated it. They had to dominate it cause they were 0/18 on the power play. The Panthers were +7 goal differential over the Caps at 5v5. They held a strong "corsi for percentage" , and also had more shots and scoring chances. For the Caps, the Panthers may have held most statistical advantages at 5v5, but the Caps led in high danger chances at 5v5 and kept pace with a close xGF.

xGF - The Caps and Panthers were pretty neck and neck here. The Caps had the higher xGF at "all" strengths, and the Panthers held a slight edge at 5v5. Really what this comes down to is goaltending. The Capitals biggest weakness all year was goaltending. For this playoff series, I think we got much more than we expected out of Samsonov. He played a fantastic series and might be my MVP of the series for the Caps. On the other side, Sergei Bobrovsky played extremely well. He is 4th in the league in "Goals Saved Above Expected" in the playoffs Goals above expected at 3.6. Bob has masked some of the deficiencies of the Panthers this postseason. He had to be close to lights out for the Panthers to get back into this series. Obviously Verhaeghe is the MVP for the Panthers but Bob has to be 2nd star for them this series. Classic Caps...running into a hot goalie.

High Danger - Somewhat piggybacking on the point above, the Caps had more high danger chances this series. They did not lead in shots or scoring chances. But the chances the Caps got, they were usually high quality.

Panthers Power Play Drought - Sigh. The Panthers were 0/18 this series on the power play and still won the series in six games. It is such a missed opportunity by the Caps. Credit the Caps for all 18 kills. The PK struggled down the stretch of the regular season and I thought there was certainly a chance the 5th best PP from the regular season would light us up. The Panthers had zone time but never got quality looks on the power play all series.

I have a few other remarks to add, but I have errands to run today. Will add in the comments later.

There will be plenty of Caps content this offseason. I will likely post a one or two more blogs on this series. I appreciate all fans engagement this postseason both from the Caps and Panthers side of things.

Cheers to a great series from both teams!

That is all, thank you for reading and GO CAPS!
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» Postseason Defensive Player Grades + Poll
» Game 5: WSH 3, FLA 5 - Washington Lets Another Lead Slip Away
» Game 4: WSH 2, FLA 3 (OT)- WSH Fails to Capitalize Late, Panthers Claw Back
» Game 3: WSH 6, FLA 1 - Samsonov Shines, Special Teams Step Up for Caps
» Game 1: WSH 4, FLA 2 - Caps Stifle High-Flying Panthers