Hello All,
I hope everyone is doing well today. It has been a week since the Caps lost and I have finally decided to return and hit the keyboard for more Caps content. I actually enjoy offseason content just as much as during the season write-ups.
Just a glimpse into the next few weeks here are some topics I anticipate discussing:
Player Playoff Grades - Defense
Player Playoff Grades - Offense
Player Playoff Grades - Goaltending
Regular Season Grades - Defense
Regular Season Grades - Offense
Regular Season Grades - Goaltending
Roster Salary Cap Now + Future
Outside the Box GM Moves to Help the Caps
Ovechkin's Push to Catch Gretzky
Ovechkin vs Matthews - Comparing each players first 6 seasons head to head. I have already started this one and it is verrrrrry interesting.
Prospect Analysis
Trade Hypotheticals
Those are just some straight forward ideas. Feel free to shoot me a suggestion in the comments if you want something specific.
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Today we are going to touch on playoff grades for our defensive players. For the Caps, they ran six defensmen and four main lines the entire series against the Panthers. For today's grades, we look based off lines then shift more towards individual stats and grades.
Here are the main line combos used + notable stats:
Fehervary-Carlson:
Minutes Total - 86.5
Goals For - 3
Goals Against - 11
xGoals Percentage - 66.7%
xGoals For - 3.6
xGoals Against - 3.6
xGoals Percentage NHL Rank - 28th out of 59 eligible lines (must have played at least 30minutes together)
Corsi For Percentage - 42.29%
Orlov-Jensen:
Minutes Total - 82.9
Goals For - 1
Goals Against - 7
xGoals Percentage - 37.9%
xGoals For - 3.3
xGoals Against - 5.4
xGoals Percentage NHL Rank - 54th out of 59 eligible lines (must have played at least 30minutes together)
Corsi For Percentage - 38.07
Schultz-Van Riemsdyk:
Minutes Total - 52.2
Goals For - 3
Goals Against - 1
xGoals Percentage - 52.4%
xGoals For - 2.2
xGoals Against - 2.0
xGoals Percentage NHL Rank - 22nd out of 59 eligible lines (must have played at least 30minutes together)
Corsi For Percentage - 47.92
Orlov-Schultz
Minutes Total - 15.9 minutes
Goals For - 1
Goals Against - 0
xGoals Percentage - 66.7%
xGoals For - 0.4
xGoals Against - 0.2
Corsi For Percentage - 69.70%
Player Stats:
Cap Hit:
John Carlson - 8M
Dmitry Orlov - 5.1M
Justin Schultz - 4M (UFA)
Nick Jensen - 2.5M
Trevor Van Riemsdyk - 950K
Martin Fehervary - $792K
*Michael Kempny has a 2.5M cap hit and was a healthy scractch the entire playoffs. Safe to assume hes gone unless he resigns for like 1M a year.
Goals:
John Carlson - 1
Justin Schultz - 1
Trevor Van Riemsdyk - 1
Dmitry Orlov - 0
Nick Jensen - 0
Justin Schultz - 1
Martin Fehervary - 0
Assists:
John Carlson - 4
Justin Schultz - 2
Trevor Van Riemsdyk - 1
Dmitry Orlov - 1
Nick Jensen - 0
Martin Fehervary - 0
Points:
John Carlson - 5
Justin Schultz - 3
Trevor Van Riemsdyk - 2
Dmitry Orlov - 1
Martin Fehervary - 0
Nick Jensen - 0
Plus/Minus:
Trevor Van Riemsdyk - (+3)
Justin Schultz - (+2)
Dmitry Orlov - (-4)
John Carlson - (-5)
Nick Jensen - (-5)
Martin Fehervary - (-7)
Minutes:
John Carlson - 147
Dmitry Orlov - 132
Nick Jensen - 121
Martin Fehervary - 118
Trevor Van Riemsdyk - 91
Justin Schultz - 90
Expected Goals:
John Carlson - 0.7
Justin Schultz - 0.5
Martin Fehervary - 0.2
Dmitry Orlov - 0.2
Nick Jensen - 0.1
Trevor Van Riemsdyk - 0.1
Share Of Possible Ice Time:
John Carlson - 40.1%
Dmitry Orlov - 35.9%
Nick Jensen - 33.1%
Martin Fehervary - 32.2%
Trevor Van Riemsdyk - 25%
Justin Schultz - 24.6%
Hits:
Martin Fehervary - 38
Dmitry Orlov - 19
John Carlson - 14
Trevor Van Riemsdyk - 8
Nick Jensen - 8
Justin Schultz - 6
Penalties in Minutes (PIM):
Trevor Van Riemsdyk - 0
John Carlson - 2
Dmitry Orlov - 2
Nick Jensen - 4
Justin Schultz - 6
Martin Fehervary - 8
PIM Drawn:
Nick Jensen - 8
John Carlson - 2
Dmitry Orlov - 2
Martin Fehervary - 0
Justin Schultz - 0
Trevor Van Riemsdyk - 0
Shot Blocks Per 60:
Martin Fehervary - 3.04
Justin Schultz - 3.31
John Carlson - 3.36
Nick Jensen - 4.94
Dmitry Orlov - 5.45
Trevor Van Riemsdyk - 8.49
Takeaways:
Dmitry Orlov - 6
Justin Schultz - 4
Trevor Van Riemsdyk - 3
John Carlson - 2
Martin Fehervary - 1
Nick Jensen - 1
Giveaways:
Trevor Van Riemsdyk - 2
Martin Fehervary - 4
Justin Schultz - 5
Nick Jensen - 6
Dmitry Orlov - 8
John Carlson - 9
Defensive Zone Giveaways:
Trevor Van Riemsdyk - 1
Martin Fehervary - 3
Justin Schultz - 4
Dmitry Orlov - 4
Nick Jensen - 5
John Carlson - 7
Goals Above Expected:
Trevor Van Riemsdyk - 0.9
Justin Schultz - 0.5
John Carlson - 0.3
Nick Jensen - (-0.1)
Martin Fehervary - (-0.2)
Dmitry Orlov - (-0.2)
Shot Attempts:
John Carlson - 25
Justin Schultz - 19
Dmitry Orlov - 14
Nick Jensen - 9
Trevor Van Riemsdyk - 8
Martin Fehervary - 6
On Ice Score Adjusted Expected Goals %:
Justin Schultz - 62.5%
John Carlson - 59.9%
Dmitry Orlov - 53.1
Trevor Van Riemsdyk - 52.9
Martin Fehervary - 46.6
Dmitry Orlov - 53.1
Nick Jensen - 36.4%
Well thats a lot of data to digest!
My Grades:
John Carlson: B-
With great power comes great responsibility. Carlson played the most minutes and produced the most points with five total. In addition, he produced the largest individuals expected goals for at 1.68. The next closest player was schultz at 0.53. Offensively speaking, Carlson produced. Defensively Carlson was average. He averaged below 50% in Corsi For when on the ice. He led the team in giveaways and defensive zone giveaways. 7 defensive zone giveaways is bad...real bad. Thank goodness this guy can score points. Carlson was (-5) this series.
Dmitry Orlov: D+
Another high minute skater. Orlov was mostly paired with Jensen and that line was pretty abysmal. They posted a 37.9% expected goals % when on the ice together and that ranks 54th out of 59 lines who skated at least 30minutes in the playoffs. Orlov was the 6th highest point scorer for the Caps during the regular season with 35 points in 76 games. A little less than 0.5 points per game. Orlov registered one assist in six games this postseason. He was third on the team in shot attempts. Orlov led the team in takeaways but also had his fair share of giveaways. I was expecting more from Orlov and he did not live up to his expectations this postseason.
Nick Jensen: C
Jensen logged the third most minutes of all defensemen. As I mentioned earlier, he mostly played with Orlov and that line was...bad. Jensen was (-5) in the playoffs. He had zero points this postseason after producing a career high point total of 21 in the regular season. Jensen did draw four penalties but also took two. His PIM differential was best on the team. His On Ice Score Adjusted Expected Goals % is not all his fault but it is very telling to some degree.
Martin Fehervary: C-
Fehervary was a team worst -7 for all defensemen. His expected goal percentage with Carlson was 28th out of 59 eligble lines in the NHL. Their Corsi for percentage was 42.29% which was also middle of the pack compared to the big minute line combos. I liked seeing Fehervary a good chunk of minutes and he was throwing a ton of hits at key times. He was well ahead of the rest of the defensemen with 38 hits. His pairing with Carlson wasn't our best or worst pairing. The potential is clearly there for him. A tough matchup against the high octane Florida Panthers will make most defensemen look bad.
Trevor Van Riemsdyk: B
The Schultz-Van Riemsdyk line had a xGoals Percentage NHL Rank of 22 out of 59 eligible lines Their Corsi For % was also of 47.92% was one of the best for all of our pairing who played lots of minutes. Schultz led the team with a +3 and also did not take any penalties. Keep in mind he played 91 minutes compared to 147, 132, 121, and 118 from Carlson, Orlov, Jensen, and Fehervary. Still, with marginally smaller playing time compared to the others, Van Riemsdyk was pretty solid. His 0.9 goals above expected led the team.
Justin Schultz: B-
Schultz was second on the team with a plus/minus of +2. He also was second on the team in points with three. His goals above expected was 0.5 which was second best for defensemen. He took three penalties in the series and didnt draw a single penalty. He was second on the team with four takeaways. His line with TVR was one of the more effective we rolled out, even in a smaller capacity.
What do you think? Who was the Capitals best defenseman this postseason?
Quiz Maker
That is all for today, GO CAPS!
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