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In the last two playoff series between the Toronto Maple Leafs and Boston Bruins, the Leafs have held a third period Game 7 lead. In each of those Game 7’s, the Leafs have found themselves on the losing end of things.
I expect that the 2019 playoff version of the Bruins and Maple Leafs will provide a third Game 7. But will it be a similar result? Or will the Maple Leafs finally get the best of the Bruins in a seven game series?
More on that in a bit…
Let’s take a look at how the two teams matchup
Head-to-head record
Boston: 3-1
Toronto: 1-3
Team Stats
Boston: 53.07% CF%, 55.12% GF%, 25.9 PP% 79.9 PK%
Toronto: 51.73% CF%, 54.79% GF, 21.8 PP%, 79.9 PK%
How the Bruins win: David Pastrnak
Pastrnak is going to pick up points in the series, how many he ends up with may dictate whether or not the Bruins are punching a ticket to the second round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs or not.
The Bruins top trio of Brad Marchand, Patrice Bergeron and David Pastrnak comes in as arguably the best in all of the National Hockey League. All three are coming off regular seasons where they reached career highs in points, including Brad Marchand’s first career 100-point season.
Including the playoffs, Pastrnak has had his fun with the Maple Leafs, scoring 16 times and adding 16 assists in 22 games. In last year’s series against Toronto, the Bergeron line combined for 13 points, with Pastrnak the driving force behind the line’s success.
This time around, the Maple Leafs will need to find a way to limit the game Pastrnak does. But how will they do that?
Well, it could be against the Maple Leafs top line and d-pairing of Zach Hyman, John Tavares, Mitch Marner, Morgan Rielly and Ron Hainsey.
In 25:22 of five-on-five ice time against that combination, Pastrnak and company outshot the Leafs by seven, and outscored them 2-0.
How the Maple Leafs win: Frederik Andersen needs to be the series MVP
In the regular season the Maple Leafs allowed 33.1 shots on goal per game, eighth most in the National Hockey League. If the Maple Leafs are to advance to the second round for the first time since 2004, it’s going to have be on the back of Frederik Andersen.
For most of the 2018-19. Andersen was considered a Vezina Trophy candidate, but then March came, throwing that conversation out the window.
From the start of the season, through March 1, Andersen had a .923 save percentage and a 2.59 goals-against average. From March 2 through the end of the season, Andersen posted a .898 save percentage and a 3.40 goals-against average. Part of Andersen’s issues were him being behind a Maple Leafs blueline that was missing some key pieces due to injury.
For the Maple Leafs to have a chance in the series with the Bruins, they’ll need the Andersen they saw from October to March.
Last season Andersen was very solid in the regular season, winning 38 games with a .918 save percentage and a 2.81 goals-against average. But in the playoffs, Andersen was inconsistent, and it ultimately cost them in the seven-game series.
Prediction: The Bruins are much better at home than on the road. The home team wins each game, and the Bruins take the series in 7.
Boston Bruins Blogger • 
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