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Panarin to Rangers?... Pens? Isles? Panters? |
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Most would agree that Artemi Panarin will not be wearing the Union Blue next season. Although most would have said that he would be traded at the deadline. Instead Jarmo and the Jackets shocked the hockey world and went 'all-in' which resulted in a mini-playoff run. They may have mortgaged their (near) future for a first round victory...but ask TBL how they feel about that first round series. Either way, the assumption is that Bread is gone. Where will he go?
RANGERS
NYR are a young and talented team with many of their young forwards having good statistical seasons in 2019. As natural progression goes, you would expect that most of them would build on their prior year. As history will tell us, some will and some will not. The 2019 iteration of the Rangers were 26th in the league in both goals for and goals against with at -45 differential. There were good signs from their young goaltenter, Georgiev, who should split time with Henrik next season. John Davidson has also joined their front office and had a direct connection with Panarin the last few seasons.
Cap space is not a problem for NYR who have only a few RFAs needing significant raises. They already have their top forwards and defensmen signed for next season. The Rangers should not be so shortsighted to not notice that many of these top players contracts will be up in 2020 or 2021. Signing Bread to a $10M contact will not cause any issues for 2019 but in the years following could land them in cap hell if they are not careful.
Panarin's scoring talent could (will) open up space for the other scorers on this team and his ability to dish the puck should provide them more opportunities. Bread's worst year was in Chicago when he scored only 74 points with 47 of those being assists. He is the rare talent that makes those around him better while he plays at a high level.
NYR have room for him both financially and in the top 6 forwards. His talents should mesh well with a group of young talented forwards and he wants to play in a big hockey market. Didn't yet mention that they have the 2nd pick in the draft which will also add top young talent to this roster. This seems like the most logical fit. But we will explore other teams that may have interest...
Islanders
There is another team in New York, that just lost their star (last season) and still made a splash in the playoffs this year. After losing the JT sweepstakes it looked to be a rebuilding year on the island. No one told the players or coaching staff that as they amassed 48 wins, 103 points (3rd most in the East) and finished second (by 1 point) in the Metro. Winning the first round match up versus the Penguins (sweep) may have signaled a changing-of-the-guard in the East (along with the CBJ sweep of TBL) and the Islanders are looking to build on this success. Adding Panarin may be the additional piece they need.
NYI have cap space but need to sign Eberle, Lee, Sbisa and a goalie (maybe Lehner or Bob) and decide what to do with Filppula. Seeing as they signed Nelson for $6M, they set the starting price pretty high for Eberle and Lee. If they want to try to sign both Bob and Bread, cap space may be limited. If they are only looking at getting one of the two, cap space isn't an issue.
Similar to my comments about the Rangers, Panarin should make a good group of forwards better. Unlike the NYR, they NYI seem to already know how to win. That may be a deciding factor for Bread between these two teams in the same market. Let me be clear, New York generally puts the Rangers 1st, but if they keep winning on the island (and Panarin could go a long way to continuing that) it could quickly become an Islander-favorite city.
Florida Panthers
Bob and Bread are headed to Florida together, to bask in the sun and bring a cup to the south. This has been the narrative since the trade deadline. I'm not sure anyone is truly believing it as much as they used to. 2016 was the last time FLA made the playoffs (so pretty recent) when they won the Atlantic division. They have some talent up front with Barkov and Huberdeau for Panarin to work with. There is a question mark in goal with Luongo and Reimer signed for seasons to come and neither preforming particularly well (GAA above 3 and Sv% at or below .900).
Florida does have cap space and could afford Bob and Bread, but would need to move one of their other high priced tenders (probably Reimer). This may be a desired location because of the weather, but it's not a traditional hockey market and it lacks a culture of consistently winning. Panarin has played for Coach Q before and will be familiar with his style. Coach Q can also bring a culture change in a hurry, especially with an infusion of high level talent.
Pittsburgh
Do the Pens really have a shot at landing Panarin? They have a ton of talent on their roster. It is a huge hockey market. They have a culture of consistent winning and expectation to make a playoff run every year. Panarin on a line with Sid could be deadly, possibly increasing his production, if that is even possible after a 100-point season.
The problem with Pittsburgh as the destination is salary cap space. It looks like the Pens are trying to solve that problem by moving Phil. If Kessel is moved (and that is a big IF) they would have room. Moving a combination of JJ and Rust would also free up enough room. There is the ever-present talk about Gino being traded. This would obviously result in cap relief and some talent coming back in the form of prospects or draft picks. Problem with moving Malkin is that PIT would have to find a trading partner that could handle his salary.
Ideally PIT could keep the core together (including either Phil or Gino) and add Bread. It would not be a far cry to say that the Pens would be the team-to-beat-in-the-East if that happened. By moving salary as described above, not only would they have room for Panarin but would seem to solve cap issues in the future. In short, the answer to my original question is yes, they do have a shot at landing Panarin.
Handicapping his Destination
In general, I don't like to make predictions. Why? Because there is much that goes on that the average fan doesn't know about, like personality conflicts, players family situation and just life-stuff in general. The second reason I don't like to make predictions is because sports are unpredictable and I am usually wrong. But I will try in this situation...
If what I have read is true, Panarin wants a big hockey market (or better weather), to play on a team with a winning culture and move to an area with a Russian population, I would say that he is going to one of the New York teams.
Pittsburgh has a Ukrainian population which isn't exactly Russian. In addition if they trade Gino, that is one less Russian on the team. They do have a winning culture and are a big hockey market.
Florida (Ft. Lauderdale) has good weather and a sizable Russian population, but nobody is going to call this a hockey town and winning hasn't exactly been consistent.
That leaves New York. Either team could result in him living in or near a Russian community, playing in a big hockey market and on a team ready to win and continuing to win. NYI is in the midst of winning with a talented team that over-achieved in 2019 but is poised to keep their winning ways going. NYR look like they have the pieces to put it together for next season. They have cap space, young talent and a world-class goalie (who may be on the decline with a back up of expected talent).
With only knowing what has been published, I believe he chooses Rangers. The spotlight burns bright in NYC and while he may think that is what he wants it has burned many talented players in may sports before. Chicago was a big sports city, but he had Kane and Toews among others, shielding a young talent from critics. In NYR he will instantly become 'The Man'. Wherever he chooses, not ruling out Columbus (hopefully), I wish him well. He served the Blue Jackets very well and I am personally happy to have enjoyed his talents the last few season.
Best of luck Artemi.
Columbus Blue Jackets Blogger • 
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