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It's widely been suggested that, while perhaps not in the way of an official ask, Mitch Marner would like Auston Matthews-type money on his next contract. In other words, a dollar amount in the $11.5 million range.
In this edition of the hotstove, we share our thoughts on Marner's worth.
Todd Cordell
I really like Mitch Marner. I think he is one of the most creative and dynamic players in the league, and this year he took a big step towards being one of the most productive. In saying that, his *expected* ask is high. I think he should be in the $10 million range annually.
For all the great things Marner brings to the table, he's not a very good shot or chance suppressor, he doesn't score many goals (22 per 82 games through three seasons), and he is not a center. Auston Matthews might not be a defensive specimen, either, but he fills the net at 5v5 like no other, he is a center, and he is
likely going to be the captain as soon as this fall. His ticket should be higher.
I know young players are starting to get big money a lot sooner, and I think deservedly so, but I don't see why Marner deserves noticeably more than Nikita Kucherov or Mark Stone – especially when the latter two gave up way more UFA years.
James Tanner
The idea that Mitch Marner is anywhere close to Auston Matthews - who leads the NHL in goals per minute 5v5 since he came into the league - is ridiculous.
Marner isn't a centre, he doesn't score nearly as much, and he likely got a huge bump from playing with Tavares (literally everyone who ever has does).
Marner is a good player who may one day be great. But for his career, he is far more comparable to Nylander than Matthews, especially if you only look at 5v5.
For now, he isn't a top five winger, but I think he likely is. If you can get him for eight years, paying him in the 10s is fine.
But if he wants to be paid like Matthews and Tavares, you could probably get a pretty nice package of players for him.
That won't happen though, Marner will sign, and most likely soon. There isn't even a sliver of a chance he will sign an offer sheet.
Trevor Shackles
Marner wants Matthews money and that is understandable. He should at least be getting over $10M because that is a benchmark that Jack Eichel set, and I would say he cleared that bar. With a rising cap and considering Marner is only 22, I think you could justify giving him over $11M, and possibly even the same cap hit as Matthews. It would be a tough pill to swallow, but that's the price they will have to pay. He could be a perennial 90-100 point player, and he still has his prime years ahead of him, so I don't blame Marner for asking for the moon. I wouldn't feel comfortable as a Leafs fan having three massively paid forwards on the team as their cap situation moving forward won't be great, but it's not the worst problem to have.
If any team were to offer sheet Marner, it would probably be worth giving up the four 1st rounders as long as it's not a team like Ottawa who would be giving up some very valuable picks in there. Having said that, there's no chance that he gets offer sheeted, plus Toronto would surely match almost any offer. If Matthews wasn't on the Leafs, Marner would be getting a ton of more love from the fanbase and the mainstream media, but now he is being portrayed as greedy just because he is asking market value for his first big contract.
Peter Tessier
There's a been a lot of discussion on how to figure out if Marner is worth what Matthews and Tavares are, especially to the Leafs. He's an elite NHL talent who can do many things, and he's a hometown hero to boot. Thus his value is a complex issue and confirming it will be difficult.
Where does Marner rank amongst his peers?
In RWs who have played 2000 5vs5 mins the last two seasons Marner ranks the following:
CF% 14th
GF% 8th
xGF% 13th
SCF% 6th
HDCF% 8th
HDGF% 9th
On-Ice Sh % 5th
Is he better than Stone, Kucherov, Tarasenko, Pastrnak, or Patrick Kane?
He's in their tier and that's who he should be paid like with room for contract inflation.
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