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Looking Back at Predictions

January 5, 2019, 11:56 AM ET [6 Comments]
Trevor Shackles
Ottawa Senators Blogger • RSSArchiveCONTACT
You can follow me on Twitter @ShackTS

Besides grading how players have done at the halfway mark in the season, I also like looking back at predictions that were made at the beginning of the season and seeing how they are doing. I had eight over/unders before the season began, so we can see how many of them are on track to do well and how many are on track to do poorly.

Here they are:

1. Brady Tkachuk points: 34.5---Over (On pace to be correct)

In 30 games, Tkachuk already has 20 points, putting him on pace for 47 points in 71 games. Barring another injury, he should easily be able to put up 15 points in the second half. I thought 34.5 was an intriguing number to set, but Tkachuk is proving that he is much better than that, even in his rookie season.

2. Craig Anderson SV%: .908%---Over (Incorrect so far)

Through 31 games played, Anderson is just below at .905%. With something as volatile as SV% though, that could rise above .908% in just a few games. .905% looks better this season considering the league average SV% has been just .909%, so Anderson actually hasn’t been that bad. I’m not sure if he’ll be able to clear that bar, but it will be close the rest of the way.

3. Matt Duchene GP in Ottawa: 62.5---Under (Correct so far, but could easily change)

Just by virtue of it being only halfway through the season, this is of course technically correct, but it will change to incorrect if he stays past the trade deadline. Having said that, a trade could happen any day from now until the trade deadline. I’ll stick with my prediction that he will get traded, although I’m not very confident about that happening. January and February will be nervewracking months for Senators fans wanting to keep both Duchene and Stone.

4. Cody Ceci +/-: -24.5---Under (On pace to be correct)

He’s already at -19...Hitting -30 should be pretty easy considering how many shots and goals this team gives up. He is still getting plenty of ice-time, so I don’t see how he will be any better than -6 in the second half of the season.

5. Powerplay rank: 23.5---Under (as in worse) (Incorrect so far)

The Senators goal scoring has actually been decent so far, and their powerplay sits at 12th in the league with a 21.6% conversion rate. The 24th ranked powerplay is just at 15.5%, so Ottawa should be able to beat that. It has been much better than I expected, although their penalty kill is still horrendous. Baby steps, one special team at a time...

6. Mark Stone points: 67.5----Over (On pace to be correct)

Stone already has 45 points and is on pace for 90...If he got 70 at this point it would be a massive disappointment, which is strange considering his career high in points in 64. He just keeps getting better, and barring an injury, he’ll easily smash the over on this.

7. Players on active roster traded: 2.5---Over (Correct)

Chris Wideman and Tom Pyatt have been traded, and so has Mike McKenna. McKenna technically wasn’t on the NHL roster to begin the season, nor was he supposed to be in the NHL, but I’m going to count him here because he still started 10 games for the Senators. Plus I’d be shocked if there weren’t more trades made before the deadline, so this prediction should be indisputably correct even if it is only sort-of correct right now.

8. Team points: 71.5---Over (On pace to be incorrect)

They have 35 points right now, meaning they are on pace to get 70 points, just barely below this mark. However, one extra win would give me a correct prediction. This one will be extremely close, but I’m still going to take the over. It’s sad that a point total this low is even being discussed.

Out of the eight, four of them are correct or are shoo-in’s to be correct, two are incorrect but it will come down to the wire, one is very wrong, and one is undetermined as of now. I’d say that’s not too bad, with the potential to get seven of them correct.
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