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The "Next One" : Alexis Lafrenière |
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Every year we are bombarded with an assault of media hype for the draft. I both love and hate it. Living in Ottawa and having a season ticket to the 67’s, I’ve been farther from European hockey as I have in years, but closer to the CHL than ever before. Ottawa is a great place to be to watch games as you can easily drive the 15 minutes to watch the Olympiques, or in this case, watch the Olympiques play a team with a future superstar.
Every year we hear about how this years “first overall pick” is a superstar and 90% they are right. One need only look at the top-20 in points this year. McDavid, Stamkos, Tavares, Ovechkin, Crosby, MacKinnon and Hall all in there. Plus Kane just outside the top-20 and Matthews missing games, but being on pace to be around that area. While there’s a fear you can get a Yakupov, it’s a rather irrational one given the history of the pick. There are however levels of stardom that can usually be easily identified. The last two of these phenoms are generally considered to be Sidney Crosby and Connor McDavid. They gain the ever confusing moniker of “generational player.” Ovechkin and a healthy Stamkos used to pop up as well, but the majority feel that it’s Crosby passing the torch to McDavid. Or at least the media would really love it to be that simple.
Right now there is another player starting to garner the fervor and interest of McDavid and Crosby before him. He is draft eligible in 2020 and has the look of “the next one.” So soon? You might ask. So it would seem.
Alexis Lafrenière – Left Winger, 16 Years Old, 6’0 176lbs, Rimouski Océanic in the QMJHL
51gp 37g 32a 69p
Similar to Hall, Tavares, Matthews and Ovechkin; Lafrenière will enter the 2020 draft as a mature player being born in October. That’s a common trait for first overall picks. Outside of Crosby or MacKinnon, you rarely see a player born after March going first overall. At just 16; Lafrenière has already shown that he has the potential to become a dominant NHL winger. He leads Rimouski in goals and points; while also sitting sixth overall in points in the league and third in goals scored. More impressively is the damage he has caused at 5vs5.
A lot of junior players can wrack up ludicrous amounts of points on the Power Play. As well, players can be used to play 30 minutes a night including shorthanded and boost their offensive stats like that (see Anthony Mantha). It can skew the perception of players as the transition to the NHL will likely involve them never to play on the Penalty Kill again or not receive the bulk of Power Play time. This is most prominently seen with junior defenseman transitioning to the NHL. They wrack up large amounts of PP points in junior and look like offensive studs, and then falter when they can’t beat out players whose entire skillset is designed for the PP.
Just 19 of Lafrenière’s 69 points come on the PP. So just under 28%. A simple comparison is looking at Nico Hischier’s draft year where 41% of his points came on Special Teams, which is actually very good. It just shows how strong of a player Lafrenière is trending to be. An interesting situation is happening right now in the QMJHL; where Filip Zadina who is expected to be picked in the top-4 in this year’s draft, has only marginally outplayed Lafrenière who is two away from his. Zadina has a better supporting cast around him. Just food for thought as it’s rare to see a player so young be as comparable to a potential top-4 pick.
For comparison; I would like to compare several top level players’ seasons when they were two drafts away. I won’t be using European players nor USHL players as it is a lot more difficult to compare those leagues to the CHL. If you’re wondering why some guys are missing like MacKinnon, it’s due to the fact that they were too young to play that early in the league and were not granted “exceptional status.” Or they are like Yakupov who were playing in Europe or a different league that year.
Alexis Lafrenière – Draft Eligible 2020 - 51gp 37g 32a 69p – 19 Special Teams Points (28%)
Nolan Patrick – 2nd Overall 2017 – 55gp 30g 26a 56p – 20 Special Teams Points (36%)
Connor McDavid – 1st Overall 2015 – 63gp 25g 41a 66p – 23 Special Teams Points (34%)
Sam Reinhart – 2nd Overall 2014 – 4gp 2g 0a 2p – 0 Special Teams Points (100%)
Sean Monahan – 6th Overall 2013 – 65gp 20g 27a 47p – 7 Special Teams Points (15%)
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins – 1st Overall 2011 – 5gp 2g 4a 6p – 4 Special Teams Points (67%)
Taylor Hall – 1st Overall 2010 – 63gp 45g 39a 84p – 20 Special Teams Points (24%)
John Tavares – 1st Overall 2009 – 67gp 72g 62a 134p – 76 Special Teams Points (57%)
So as you can see, outside of John Tavares’…rather ungodly year… Lafrenière is tracking extremely well as a first overall pick. It’s also pertinent to state that Lafrenière leads his team in points this year. Aside from Tavares, none of the others above did. Not even McDavid, who was one point off the lead by Connor Brown.
Lafrenière looks to be a difference making winger in the mold of Crosby. Not in style of play, but more in terms of body build. Despite his age and being slender, he’s extremely hard to knock off the puck simply because his legs seem to never stop moving. He also doesn’t have the extreme speeds of say McDavid or Hall, but he’s a very powerful skater that can cause havoc. His puck possession and power skating are what have allowed him to be so dominant at 5vs5 hockey. Traits that should translate extremely well to the NHL.
All in all Alexis Lafrenière is an extremely talented individual and I can’t wait to watch him grow and mature over the next two seasons.
Thanks for reading.
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