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Rangers-Penguins: Reading the Numbers, Looking for an Advantage |
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Rangers-Penguins: Reading the Numbers, Looking for an Advantage
I did this the past four post-seasons, highlighting a few numbers and seeing if anything could be gleaned from them. Given the familiarity of the two teams, since they faced each other in the playoffs the last two seasons and are both in the same division, meeting four times during the year, maybe not much will be learned, but let's see where it takes us.
This is a graphical representation of how the two teams fared against each other along with The Hockey News preview. My series preview will be up later today.
Win-Loss Record
Rangers: 46-27-9 53-22-7 (overall), 27-10-4 25-11-5 (home), 19-17-5 28-11-2 (road)
Penguins: 48-26-8 43-27-12 (overall), 26-11-4 23-14-4 (home), 22-15-4 20-13-8 (road)
The Rangers got off to a blazing hot start but hit the skids in late-November through December. They righted the ship in January but then regressed again in March, before closing relatively strong. New York had a chance to lock up the two-seed if they won out, but failed to do, by going 6-3-1, ceding home ice this round to Pittsburgh. The Penguins were so-so the first 28 games of the season, going 15-10-3, but took over when Mike Sullivan replaced Mike Johnston. Pittsburgh lost their first four games under Sullivan, but went 33-12-5 the rest of the way, including 14-2 the final 16 and 8-2 the last 10 to earn the second seed in the Metro. Pittsburgh won the season series 3-1, defeating New York in all three games in March.
Goals For/Against
Rangers: 2.84-2.62 (per game)
Penguins: 2.94-2.43
The Rangers finished seventh in the league in scoring despite struggling at times during the year. New York was streaky, mixing big scoring games with stretches where they were futile offensively. Mats Zuccarello rebounded from his scary injury in Game 5 of the series last year against Pittsburgh to led the team with 61 points. New York had five players score 20 goals, including J.T. Miller, who take a major step forward with 22 goals this season. In addition, Chris Kreider and Derek Stepan each got red-hot down the stretch to tally 22 and 21 goals, respectively, while Rick Nash went from 42 to 15 goals while also missing 22 games with a knee injury. Defensively New York went from allowing 2.28 goals per game last year to 2.62 this season, as their defensive zone coverage issues and regression of their blueline were on full display. Plus, Henrik Lundqvist, after a hot start, was pulled from a career-high eight games, giving up several weak goals while facing a ridiculous number of shots from high-scoring areas.
Pittsburgh finished third in scoring and sixth in goals against with the big change occurring after the coaching switch. After Sullivan came in, Pittsburgh led the league in scoring at 3.24 goals per game. The acquisition of Carl Hagelin made a huge difference as well, providing speed on the wing opposite Phil Kessel, propelling Kessel to a big finish. Evgeni Malkin, out since March 13 with an upper body, likely a shoulder, injury remains sidelined but Nick Bonino has stepped in nicely. Sidney Crosby rebounded after a slow start to score 85 points in 80 games while Kris Letang was a beast, tallying 67 points in 71 games with strong Corsi numbers. Defensively, Pittsburgh was better than what one might have expected, with Marc-Andre Fleury, who had slightly better numbers than last year with a 2.29 goals-against average and .921 save percentage, then Matt Murray down the stretch, carrying the team between the pipes.
5-on-5 Goals For/Against Ratio
Rangers: 1.20
Penguins: 1.18
The teams finished fourth and fifth in this category, with the Rangers falling from 1.32 and 1st and Pittsburgh rising from 1.09 and 12th. When you look at how good Pittsburgh's power play is and contrast is with how bad New York's is, the numbers shouldn't surprise us. Overall, the teams were separated by eight goals, but as noted above. the Penguins rolled after Sullivan came on board, obviating some of these numbers. At even-strength, NY outscored Pitt 188-182, so that means Pittsburgh's edge - both overall as a % of overall goals - were scored on the man advantage.
Power Play
Rangers: 18.6 percent, 42-for-226 (overall), 19.8 percent, 24-for-121 (home); 17.1 percent, 18-for-105 (road)
Penguins: 18.4 percent, 48-for-261 (overall), 19.6 percent; 28-for-143 (home); 16.9 percent; 20-for-118 (road)
While Pittsburgh had the edge on the power play, the net difference is six goals - or one every 13 games - and 35 chances. The Penguins finished 16th in the league in terms of PP success % and 15th goals while New York was 14th and 23rd, respectively. The Penguins still have a large home-road success disparity, though not as bad as last year, when the spread was 5.6 per cent. Letang, Malkin and Crosby were all monsters on the PP, aided by Kessel and Hornqvist. Trevor Daley has seen time at the other point, especially with Malkin out, while Chris Kunitz or Nick Bonino could see time down low.
The Rangers PP has taken a major turn for the positive the last 25 or so. After languishing much of the season. AV and Scott Arniel finally turned Keith Yandle loose. In addition, Derick Brassard was allowed to go from the point down the wing when needed while Kreider finally used his big body to screen goalies. In addition, Stepan and Zuccarello were on the half-boards and in, taking advantage of the crisper passing from side-to-side, resulting in more opportunities. The Rangers will rotate Brassard and Zucc at times, though Brassard's point shot gives him the edge up top. New York still struggles at time to initially gain the zone cleanly, though Yandle has helped in that regard. If/when Ryan McDonagh returns, he will man the point, likely on the second PP.
Power play units for the Rangers are:
PP1: Yandle-Zuccarello-Stepan-Brassard-Kreider
PP2: Boyle-McDonagh-Nash-Staal-Miller
Pittsburgh could roll out Letang-Daley-Kessel-Crosby-Kunitz with Hornqvist replacing Kunitz, Schultz in for Daley and Bonino possibly in on the second unit. When Malkin returns, look for Kunitz or Kessel to drop down to the second unit, creating more balance among the two sets of five.
The Penguins have a big edge shorthanded, both in terms of the ability to shut down the opponents' PP, as you will see below, and in scoring while down a man. Pittsburgh had 11 shorthanded goals, second in the league, while New York, had three, all scored by Stepan. The Rangers have struggled shorthanded, but have been slightly better lately. With McDonagh out, look for Stepan-Nash and Klein-Girardi as one unit with Moore-Stalberg and Girardi-Staal or maybe Skjei-Staal as the other.
Penalty Kill
Rangers: 78.2 percent, 53-for-243 (overall); 82.0 percent; 21-for-117 (home); 74.2 percent; 32-for-126 (road)
Penguins: 84.4%; 40-for-257 (overall); 83.1 percent; 21-for-124 (home); 85.6 percent, 19-for-133 (road)
The Rangers went from sixth in the league last year in terms of success rate to 26th this year. The losses of Martin St. Louis and Hagelin had an adverse affect on the penalty kill. Pittsburgh was third last year and finished sixth this year, though only drop 0.4% in success rate. after finishing sixth a year while Pitt finished third this year after ending up fifth at 85.0% a year ago. New York had the ninth fewest PK time (400:53) in the league last year but was 11th this season (411:58) while the Penguins went 28th overall last year, with almost 71 more minutes of shorthanded time than New York, to 14th this season (419:07), just seven-plus minutes more than the Rangers.
The Rangers were 19th best in the league in killing penalties at home while Pittsburgh was 11th. On the road is where it got really ugly, the Rangers were 28th while Penguins were the best in the league. In addition, the Rangers killed just 76,1% of their penalties in the second half of the season. Pittsburgh has the overall edge in special teams, based on the numbers, as they have they can score and also kill penalties, which is why special teams likely will play a huge role in who wins.
Hits-Blocked Shots-Missed Shots-Giveaways-Takeaways
Rangers: 2164H-1314B-939M-824G-603T
Penguins: 1947H-1091B-916M-631G-500T
Last season, New York saw a drop in hits and blocked shots. This season, because their puck-possession skills were so poor and they had more turnovers than a bakery, there was a marked spike upwards in both blocked shots and hits. New York was 19th and 18th in hits and blocked shots a year ago; this season, they were seventh and fourth, respectively. Pittsburgh dropped over 500 hits from a year ago, aided by strong puck possession and change in style from Johnston to Sullivan whereby finesse was a bigger part of their game. In addition, adding Kessel and Hagelin while losing Downie and Winnik didn't hurt. Overall, Pitt was sixth and 21th in hits and blocked shots last year; this season, they were 12th and 21st.
The missed shots were fairly close between the squads but the Rangers were fifth in coughing up the puck, which isn't a surprise if you watched them all season, and the Penguins 20th. But, the Rangers did a solid job in taking the puck back, finishing fourth in the league while Pitt was 16th, up from 26th a year ago. numbers similar to a year ago, though NY had 103 more takeaways this year than in 2013-14. Surprisingly, the Rangers and Penguins were pretty close with missed shots on net, while Piit finished first and the NYR dropped all the way from sixth to 26th in shots per game at 33.2 and 28 SOG/game.
Faceoffs
Rangers: 49.2; 2313W-2390L
Penguins: 50.2; 2593W-2576L
The teams ranked 15th and 23th in the league, both sides finishing better than a year ago, especially the Rangers, who went from 46.7 to 49.2%. In order, for the Rangers, Dominic Moore won 55.3% of his 861 draws, while Derick Brassard went from winning 48.2% of his draws a year ago to 50.2% in his 1346 faceoffs this season. Derek Stepan, who historically has struggled in the dot, did so again this year, winning 46.7% of his 1103 draws, though that was up from 44.1% last year. Kevin Hayes win just 35.9% of his 381 draws, down from 36.3% of his 681 drawsa year ago, which is why either Eric Staal (51.0% in his 241 draws) or Oscar Lindberg (48.4% on 277 draws) will take the faceoffs if they are on his line. Jarred Stoll, before he was waived, won 57.9% of his 273 draws.
For Pitt, Matt Cullen won 55.7% of his 1,044 draws, so look for him to be on the ice late while Sidney Crosby won 51.7% of his 1907 draws, up from 49.9% last year.. Nick Bonino won 50.4% of his 918 draws while Evgeni Malkin struggled again, as he won just 42.0% of his 755 draws, down slightly from 42.6% success rate of a year ago and 48.8% the prior year. Look for Pitt to use Cullen, Crosby or Bonino wherever possible, especially in the defensive zone. This is where matchups and last changes could be key, especially in the defensive zone, as if either Stepan/Hayes or Malkin are caught in their own zone, it could have a major impact on the series.
Record When Leading After 20 Minutes, 40 Minutes//Trailing After 20, 40
Rangers: 25-3-3, 28-2-2/9-12-2, 4-20-2
Penguins: 20-2-0, 39-0-0/10-16-3, 5-21-4
The Rangers went from fifth in win % and first in wins if leading after one last year down to 12th and tied for fourth, respectively, this season. Last season, they were second in win % and as well as first in wins if leading after two, but this year, they fell to 12th in each category. The difficulty in puck-possession and use of a shell in the third resulted in the four losses and several blown leads in the third period.
The Penguins were 18th in win % and sixth in wins if leading after one last season but rose to second in win% while falling to 14th in wins. They made up for that by leading the league in wins while also not blowing any leads while holding a lead after two periods. Puck-possession made a huge difference in both for the Penguins. Last season, they tied for sixth in both in win% and wins if leading after two in those categories.
New York finished fourth in win% and and tied for sixth in wins sixth if trailing after one but fell to 17th in wins and 16th in wi% if trailing after two, down from tied for 11th and second a year ago. Pitt was seventh in win% and tied for second in wins if trailing after one and 11th in win% and wins if trailing after two, a marked rise from last in both a year ago.
Record When Scoring First//Trailing First
Rangers: 33-5-5/13-22-4
41-6-3/12-16-4
Penguins: 30-6-1/18-20-7
33-9-7/10-18-5
The Rangers had the eighth best winning percentage and seventh most wins if scoring first while the Penguins were third and 13th in both categories, indicating that both like to lead but supporting the above that Pittsburgh does a better job maintaining it. In addition, New York was tied for 28th and Pitt was 26th in fewest losses when scoring first, so each have shown that a strong start is a big plus for each. The Rangers were tied for 12th while Pittsburgh was tied for third in wins when surrendering the first goal - separated by five wins - but the Rangers were ninth (.333) and Pittsburgh fifth (.400) in win percentage in those cases.
Shots/Shots Allowed
Rangers: 28.5/30.4
31.5-29.5
Pit: 33.2/29.7
31.6-29.3
For NY, it was a major change from the prior year. The Rangers averaged three less shots per game while surrendering one more per contest. Puck possession mattered on the former, while the latter doesn't accurately reflect just how bad it was. Too many of those shots came in prime scoring areas, which is why Lundqvist, despite his drop is GAA and SV%, still had a pretty good year, as he was forced to make several spectacular saves per contest. The rise in hits and blocked shots, as seen above, is another good indicator that the Rangers chased rather than held the puck for the second straight season.. For Piit, the shots per game went up at least 1.6 per game for the second straight year, while the rise in shots against were less than half a shot per contest.
When the Rangers outshoot their opponent, they went 20-14-2, which is a drop from last year, when they went 30-12-6, and just 15th in wins. Pittsburgh led the league at 34-17-0, which isn't surprising since they led the league in shots per game. When outshot, NY went 24-13-3, tied for sixth in league, while Pitt went just 13-9-1, showing how little they are in games in which they are outshot. What we do see is that the Rangers are comfortable with either style while Pitt is much better when they are the aggressor.
One-Goal Game Record, Two-Goal Games, Three-Goal Games
Rangers: 21-7-9, 9-6, 17-14
24-7-7, 10-5, 19-10
Penguins: 21-8-8, 9-6, 18-12
17-4-12, 12-9, 14-14
The Rangers had the 11th best winning percentage (.556) in one-goal games, down from
sixth (.632) a year ago. They were seventh (.600) this season in two-goal games down from fourth best (.667) a year ago. In addition, they had the sixth most three-goal wins but were just 11th in win%. Pittsburgh was ninth (.568) up from 12th (.515) a year ago in one-goal games, sixth (.600) up from 11th (.571) a year ago in two-goal and sixth (.600) up from 17th (.500) a year ago in three-goal games. The Rangers scored 12 and allowed six empty-net goals, while Pittsburgh had six empty-net goals for but allowed seven.
Overtime Record
Rangers: 9-9
Pittsburgh: 8-8
I wonder if these teams ever play Sudden Death playoff hockey games?
Penalty Minutes For/Against
Rangers: 372:31/411:58
Penguins: 435:47/419:07
The Rangers had the least amount of PP TOI while the Penguins were 13th in the league. New York was 20th in shorthanded minutes while the Penguins were 17th, as only seven minutes separated the two teams. As we saw above, Pittsburgh is very solid on the penalty kill while New York struggled the second half of the year,. In addition, Pitt was very good on the power play, after the coaching change so New York needs to do a better job of staying out of the box.
Infer what you will from these numbers, and once the puck drops, most of these will probably just be a nice sidebar.
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