Penguins General Manager Jim Rutherford
spoke yesterday about the Penguins needing depth in order to make a playoff run.
“We're getting into the period where names are going to surface and teams are going to get serious,” Rutherford told Trib Total Media. “If it's a guy who's capable of scoring a big goal, I would like to get that guy because if Sid and Geno get shut down, we need to be able to win games with our third and fourth lines.”
They try to shut (Crosby and Malkin) guys down. If they shut those guys down, and you don’t have enough balance on your third and fourth line where you can score periodically, then you can’t win.”
Mr. Rutherford is absolutely correct. When the Chicago Blackhawks won their last Stanley Cup in 2013 Jonathan Toews had 3 goals in 23 playoff games. Nobody cares or mentions that because the Blackhawks had a proper roster. Superstars can't win it on their own, this is a fact. It is also a fact lost on so many people. It takes a deep team and on top of that it takes luck as well. The Penguins haven't had either on their side in recent playoff years.
This is good that the GM realizes this. What kind of players will he be looking for?
So now that we know that he wants to add some offense and will be targeting UFA's where does that leave us?
Let's look at some of these UFA's out there. But before I do you need to remember that the Penguins are at the cap ceiling, trades would need to be dollar for dollar.
The HERO charts below have a sample size of 2012-present.
Jaromir Jagr, Sean Bergenheim, and Daniel Winnik are UFA's but I have already gone into detail about them. I am focusing on other players today.
Chris Stewart
Bad idea. Yes the goal scoring is there, but there is literally nothing else to be had. When Chris Stewart isn't scoring goals he is a huge liability. Given the fact that goals aren't a frequent event in NHL playoff hockey, this seems like huge risk. Furthermore he isn't a guy you'd want to play in the top six so really what is the upside here? His goal scoring won't be maximized by playing with Brandon Sutter.
He is a below average possession guy on this year's Buffalo Sabres(!).
Jiri Tlusty
Some similarities to Chris Stewart, goal scoring is certainly there but possession not very good on the surface. The difference between Tlusy and Stewart is that Tlusty has positive relative possession when compared to his teammates while Stewart is routinely a below average possession guy when compared with his own teammates.
Also, Jim Rutherford is very familiar with this player.
Curtis Glencross
Noticing a trend here? Poor possession with the ability to chip in occasionally on the offense.
Antoine Vermette
He is one of the more overrated trade targets. For what it will cost to acquire Vermette it probably won't be worth what you'll have to give up.
Daniel Briere
There was a time this would be a great idea. That time has come and gone. A bad possession player on a bad possession team.
Erik Cole
I imagine his availability is tied to how well Dallas plays without Tyler Seguin. If Minnesota and Los Angeles pull away from Dallas Cole may become available. He fits the trend, low possession with some goal scoring ability.
Tomas Fleischmann
A little better on the possession front but the goal scoring is lower than some of the other candidates. Pricy contract at 4.5M.
Michael Ryder
Jaromir Jagr gets a lot of the attention as the UFA of note on the Devils but Michael Ryder has always had a goal scoring touch. Possession doesn't look terrible here but it has taken a nose dive in the 2014-15 season. Ryder has a FF% of 44.0% and a rel FF% of -4.3%, not good.
These are just some of the UFA options. I tried to focus on the players that have shown the ability to score over the past few years. As you can see most of the players on this list aren't terrific possession guys.
The red line at the 0 is the team average. Most of these guys are below average compared to their teammates.
When these players are scoring things are OK. When they aren't... Well, that is when they are a liability. Trading for these kind of players is betting on them having a high shooting percentage come playoff time, things don't always work out that way.
The best of the bunch appears to be Jiri Tlusty but out of his 13 goals this year 6 have been on the power play, something he won't see much of on the Penguins.
These are just some examples that fit the description that Mr. Rutherford laid out. Doesn't make them great options, but then again most successful teams do a lot of their heavy lifting in the summer time and don't chase it at the deadline.
****
I saw some interesting tweets from Sportsnet's Steven Burtch that I wanted to pass along. He broke down how many players actually find themselves on an NHL roster after being drafted
Trading draft picks for proven NHL talent isn't really that bad of an idea for a contender considering how random the whole drafting process is.
Trading first round picks for rentals is where teams get into trouble. The first round is really the only round where you can count on finding an impact player. The Penguins trading their first round pick for David Perron was a good move because they received a proven NHL commodity and it was not a rental.
It is also important to not waste picks on terrible players IE: Trading two second round picks for Doug Murray.
To be successful at the draft you have to stockpile picks and hope you get lucky on some of them. When you are a contending team like the Penguins it doesn't seem worth it to hope and pray to hit on a guy who will be good 4 years down the road.
Using analytics to fill out the roster in free agency can be something that is effective and not expensive. It is the one way you can get around not completely leaning on ELC contracts.
Thanks for reading!
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