Leafs General Manager Dave Nonis expressed a willingness to having advanced statistics be a guide for evaluating talent, but based on his comments at the PrimeTime Sports Management Conference on Monday, his club still has not found a system that they believe will help in that pursuit.
In his column on Sportsnet.ca,
Chris Johnston indicates that the Maple Leafs have allocated significant funds and listened to numerous proposals from analytics gurus, but are not convinced that statistics like Corsi and Fenwick are accurate.
“I believe there is something out there that can help us make decisions,” Nonis said. “To date, I haven’t seen it. … We’re going to continue to pursue it.”
The main consideration in the skepticism amongst NHL GM’s is the lack of uniformity in statistical collection throughout the league. According to Minnesota GM Chuck Fletcher, the accumulation of shot data is still subject to human error and thus makes any conclusions based on these stats inaccurate.
“There are a lot of inconsistencies. For example, in Detroit you’re going to get 10 more shots on goal in a given night than you will in Minnesota.” Fletcher said. “If a puck (barely) misses the net in Minnesota, it’s not a shot on goal. In Detroit, they might give you two.”
The accuracy of data is purportedly much better than it was in a bygone era when a GM of a Canadian based club had the hitting stats of a defenseman “padded” so that he would be easier to trade, but until there is a uniform method, these stats are open to skepticism.
The analytics craze in hockey is taking their cue from baseball sabermetrics, but the use of this statistical path is not a guaranteed formula for victory. Just look at the Oakland A’s under GM Billy Beane, who still have not won a World Series in spite of being the poster child for “Moneyball”.
The Leafs will continue to be at the center of attention and critique for hockey analytics aficionados, since they were successful at making the post-season last year while being near the bottom of the league in Corsi and Fenwick ratings. That trend continues in 2013-14, as Toronto has been outshot most of their games but still has an 11-6 record.
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Always enlightening in his weekly “30 Thoughts” column,
CBC’s Elliotte Friedman indicates that the Leafs are not only interested in acquiring a center, but have not given up their pursuit of a right-handed shooting defenseman.
Head coach Randy Carlyle has long been known for preferring having left handed shooters playing the left side and right handed shooters playing the right, but his current roster has only Cody Franson who shoots from the right side.
Friedman reports that Toronto had inquired about Florida Panthers defenseman Mike Weaver, but that the Leafs are looking more for someone that could play more of a top four role. The Panthers are known to be shopping a number of veterans in the wake of firing coach Kevin Dineen and his entire staff last week and have four right handed shooting defenseman on their roster.
Former third overall pick Erik Gudbranson is not one player that GM Dale Tallon is shopping, but would appear to answer Toronto’s needs. Veteran Tom Gilbert might be a fit based on his $900,000 cap hit and unrestricted free agent status at the end of the season.
Another possibility could be Dallas veteran blueliner Stephane Robidas, who will be a free agent at the end of the season. The 36-year-old Robidas is a dependable stay-at-home defenseman and has been mentioned in rumors involving Toronto before.
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