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With things slowing down in the summer right before prospect camp, I wanted to take a look and see if I saw any statistical trends from the 2012-2013 season. I started looking through some Fenwick/Corsi data and some of the other “advanced” stats. I then stumbled across a section of data that showed the statistics of each player based on if they were on the ice with another teammate or if they played separate from one another.
The player I chose to analyze was Kris Letang. The metric I have chosen to use is Goals For %.
GF% = Goals For / (Goals For + Goals Against)
Data and definition provided by
Stats.HockeyAnalysis.com
In the chart below you are going to see the top 8 forwards (based on even strength time on ice) who played even strength shifts with Kris Letang.
The line of Crosby, Kunitz, and Dupuis was considered one of the best, if not the best line at even strength last year in the NHL. Nobody would doubt the chemistry that those players have built up with each other.
What has probably gone unnoticed is how much Kris Letang has positively impacted that line. When Kris Letang is added to the equation, their numbers are off the charts. When Letang plays with the top line the Penguins score about 80% of the goals. 80%!
That is amazing by anybody’s standard.
When you look at the numbers while Letang is away from the top line, you can see that their numbers significantly drop off. Dupuis goes from an 89.5 GF% all the way down to 52.5% without Letang on the ice. Dupuis’ GF% of 52.5 is still not bad considering that he is on the ice for more goals for than against, but it is an incredible drop off. Crosby and Kunitz’s drop offs are not quite as drastic as Dupuis’, but they still drop down into the 55% area.
Malkin and Neal did not see the drastic swings in their numbers like the top line did. The presence of Letang did not carry the same impact. Neal’s GF% actually goes up when not playing with Letang, but not significantly. Malkin gets a slight bump from playing with Letang. Statistically speaking Malkin and Neal have pretty close to the same success with or without Letang.
Here is where it gets a little weird. The Penguins bottom 6 forwards on the list (Sutter, Cooke, and Kennedy) all play much better away from Kris Letang. You would think that a highly skilled puck moving defensemen would help out the lesser skilled forwards. That is clearly not the case in this sample size. Sutter, Cooke, and Kennedy experienced a significant bump in their GF% when Kris Letang was on the bench.
One hypothesis I have is that Letang’s strength of joining the offensive rush is better suited for when he is with the top 2 lines. The results tend to work out great when he is playing with the higher skilled players who also have better vision of the ice. It appears that when he is with the bottom 6 guys, he might not be adjusting his game to keep things simple. Letang could be taking the same risks by joining the rush, but the bottom 6 players with the puck just aren’t looking in his area. This can potentially cause Letang to get caught out of position. The risk/reward then becomes not worth it.
What conclusions do I draw from the data? I believe that Dan Bylsma should do his best to keep Kris Letang on the ice with the top line of Crosby, Kunitz, and Dupuis as often as possible. Letang helps out that line as much as he benefits from them. On the shifts that Letang is not with the Crosby line, Bylsma needs to find a way to get Letang with the Malkin/Neal line (and whoever they play at LW next year). It appears that the risk/reward style that Letang plays is better suited for the skilled players with the higher hockey IQ.
Thanks for reading!
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HockeyHurts.com
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