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Oilers at the Draft...A Response

May 22, 2013, 1:22 PM ET [304 Comments]
Richard Cloutier
Edmonton Oilers Blogger • RSSArchiveCONTACT
Adam "The Tickler" French wrote a very cool article on the NHL Entry Draft and what the Oilers might do. You know me...I can't leave stuff like this alone. I need to throw in my two bits.

I'll start by saying the Oilers have a process they use. They have a big pile of scouts. They are out and about watching hundreds of games all over the world each season. At about this time of year, they come back to the city to discuss what players they should draft. Everyone gives their opinions and a draft ranking is compiled. The final list is not...well, finalized...until the day before the draft.

Good things happen when the Oilers follow their rankings list (see Oscar Klefbom, who is one of the Top 5 defensemen prospects in the world, and was picked up at 19th overall by the Oilers in 2011). Bad things happen to the Oilers when they don't follow their list (at last year's draft, the Oilers rushed to take Mitchell Moroz in the 2nd round, thinking he wouldn't be there by the 3rd. Moroz was perhaps the biggest disappointment on the Edmonton Oil Kings roster this season).

With the Oilers picking 7th overall in 2013 instead of their usual 1st, more of a thought process is going to be needed. It's a safe bet the top five players the Oilers have rated on their list will be gone by the time they pick.

So what's going to happen? I won't make a list of a bunch of "maybe's", because in truth, we can sorta do the math here, at least for the first four or five players who will be selected. The Oilers will likely be picking between two or three guys they like.

1st overall goes to Colorado. After seen Nathan MacKinnon's play at the Memorial Cup, I'm not 100% sure they won't take him. While Seth Jones is the local boy, the best defenseman in the draft, and plays the position the Avs need the most roster upgrading for, look at draft history. Last six 1st overall picks have been forwards, and all are successful. Last 1st overall defenseman drafted was Erik Johnson, and he's a flop. Picking a forward, especially a center, is always the safest bet.

But let's just suggest Jones goes first anyway. Considering his Colorado roots, it will be hard not to take him.

2nd overall goes to Florida. If MacKinnon is there, they'll take him.

At 3rd and 4th are Tampa Bay and Nashville. One will take Jonathan Drouin, the other will take Sasha Barkov. Which player goes to which team is anyone's guess.

With Valeri Nichushkin announcing today that he's got out of his KHL contract and is ready to join the NHL next season, I believe this will move him up the draft order. He's be a solid pick-up for the Carolina Hurricanes. The 'Canes might need to add a defenseman more than a forward, but Nichushkin at this point of the draft is clearly the best prospect available. Perhaps if they take him, Carolina can move to deal Jeff Skinner for a top pairing defenseman of quality.

Calgary at #6 isn't much of a wild card because they need a center. What they'll be considering is whether or not the slick playmaking ability and two-way skill of Elias Lindholm is more important to add than the more straight-ahead power game of Sean Monahan. Considering the direction the NHL is going, I'm guessing they'll vote Monahan. If you're an Oilers fan, this is a problem.

I've heard a few people suggest Lindholm is the next Peter Forsberg. If it was this simple, the Oilers would certainly take him at #7. I've also heard Lindholm most often compared to Sam Gagner. As much as Gagner is a good guy, the Oilers don't really need another one of those.

To make matters more complicated, the Oilers are prospect rich on D, and prospect deprived at forward, especially at the center position. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Sam Gagner are a decent and functional 1-2 at center, provided the Oilers add some size on the wing to compensate for their lack of size at center.

I'd say the pick will be between defensemen Darnell Nurse or Rasmus Ristolainen, but I can't see the Oilers doing it considering their needs. If the choice in the #7 spot is between Lindholm, Nurse or Ristolainen, the Oilers will either trade down or deal the pick outright. None of those three guys improves the team quickly enough or in a way that fixes something.

The players you'll hear the Oilers associated with if Sean Monahan is gone at #7? Bo Horvat, Curtis Lazar, or Frederik Gauthier. The team could trade down five spots and still have a shot at two of the three.

New Oilers GM Craig MacTavish promised action this summer, and that's why I could see the Oilers dealing the pick outright. Perhaps the move could be part of a blockbuster...A deal that sees the pick + a second or third asset go for a legitimate younger center with size, or a quality top pairing defenseman. I'll try to offer up an example of something that could happen.

Keith Yandle. The Coyotes need serious upgrades up front and have tremendous prospect depth on D. Yandle would be a top pairing defenseman on the Oilers. He's got three years left on his contract, and he's in his prime. Maybe the Oilers need to move Sam Gagner + the 7th overall pick to get Yandle. Ouch. But it's ouch with a purpose. Maybe moving Gagner and acquiring Yandle allows the Oilers to go balls out this summer for UFA centers Tyler Bozak or Steven Weiss. I'd be thrilled if the Oilers could land Bozak, who has a solid two-way game and could be either the 2nd or 3rd line center in the future depending on who else the Oilers acquire over time and when Shawn Horcoff's contract expires.

What I'd like to see happen is for the Oilers to draft Sean Monahan. But will it happen? I don't think he makes it past Calgary. After that, anything goes.
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