Former Oilers forward Craig Simpson was a guest on Oilers Now with Bob Stauffer on Wednesday, November 14. One topic of discussion was how the NHLPA does not have a "Plan B". Should the lockout continue for a year or longer, the outcome could be catastrophic for players.

I find this all very interesting. Interesting enough that I'll offer an explanation as to how catastrophic it could be for members of the Edmonton Oilers.

I'll start by assuming the NHLPA and NHL will not move from their current positions. I could explain what exactly these positions are, but instead what I'd rather do is encourage you folks to read an amazing article written by Michael Russo from the Star Tribune (November 16, 2012 article in the Russo's Rants section). I'd just post a link but I'm too computer illiterate to know how to do that.

It's worth noting that up until this point in CBA negotiations, the NHLPA has made five separate offers to the NHL, yet all five are more or less exactly same deal. Yep, sadly it's true. While the NHL has been upgrading offers along the way, the NHLPA has yet to move. They'll tell you they have, but they haven't. Read Russo's article, as it explains things better than I ever could.

There's a reason why the NHL has asked for a two-week break in negotiations, even though it looks to be a ridiculous move to the average observer. The reason? Because the NHLPA has yet to actually negotiate. No one knows why. The NHL has called for a two-week break in the hopes that members of the NHLPA might wake up and realize how stoopid they are acting. I wouldn't hold my breath.

I've been asking the following question for seven days straight, and I still have yet to receive an answer that is comprehensible: What exactly is Donald Fehr's agenda? It's not to get the players as much money as possible, because if it was, there would have been an agreement already. As I mentioned a few blogs ago, the situation is moving past the point where the money lost can be recovered by the players, regardless what the new CBA looks like. $300mil in lost wages and counting. If we go an entire season, players will lose $1.8bil or so from the NHL. Staggering.

If money is not Fehr's agenda, what is? Is he trying to prove a point? That's the only explanation I can come up with: He's trying to show the NHLPA can't be pushed around. That's all well and good, but principles don't pay the bills as well as money does. There will come a point where the majority of players will be suffering financially, and should that happen, Donald Fehr might find himself suddenly unemployed. From my observation, players are blindly following Fehr's lead.

Oh no? One little trick Fehr is using is that he's rotating players who are involved in the negotiation process. Apparently he brings different players into different meetings, so that way, no one directly involved has attended all the meetings since the beginning. Using this technique is a way to keep control of the NHLPA in the hands of the lawyers, not the players. Even the most involved players only have some of the information.

Fehr's strategy here, and this is a well-known (meaning, it's not just coming from my brain) is that he's counting on the owners to begin battling with each other. That's "Plan A": To break ownership. If that happens, the NHLPA wins. Problem is, it won't happen, as the owners have infinitely more money than the players do. The owners have all the money in the world, and if you believe what they say about profits and losses, they aren't losing much more money now than they would be playing under the old CBA. There is very little motivation for ownership to sign a deal, and from this point, the offers from ownership will begin to go down in quality. The players have done it to themselves. They went all in with a pair of twos.

So what does Fehr do if ownership doesn't break? See the problem: There's no "Plan B". As time continues to expire, so does any negotiating leverage the players had.

Getting back to the point of the blog, which is, what Oilers players stand to lose if this continues, especially if this lockout last longer than (shudder) an entire season.

I'll direct your attention to CapGeek...current Oilers contracts. Let's just say the NHL decides to rid the game of the Fehr brothers. How they do so is by simply refusing to deal unless it's a 100% win for the league. This will keep the lockout going for over a year, if you can believe it. We're talking the worst, longest, ugliest lockout in the history of organized team sports. I'm not the first or only person who has suggested this could happen. Perhaps the NHLPA has been trying to send a message by not negotiating. Perhaps the NHL will fight back, and send a message to players by breaking the union. At this point, I'd welcome it.

If this goes, let's say, into next December...The players eventually rid themselves of the NHLPA's leadership and/or are forced into signing a deal that's a clear win for ownership. The new CBA will definitely contain a clause allowing teams to buyout contracts (see the NBA CBA), and could contain an "Amnesty" clause, allowing teams to rid themselves of one ugly contract without penalty. What does this do to the Oilers roster, keeping in mind a full season of everyone's contracts have been lost along the way?

Shawn Horcoff - Amnesty clause. Might get a new deal for much less money from a different team. Even if there is no "Amnesty" clause, Horc's big income earning was 2012/2013. There's only $7mil of actual salary left on last two years of deal. He could easily be bought out because of it.
Eric Belanger - Final year of deal bought out. Might be forced into retirement.
Ben Eager - Final year bought out. Might find another NHL job (pending jail time)
Nikolai Khabibulin - NHL career ends. Loses final year of income due to lockout.
Andy Sutton - NHL career ends. Loses final year of income due to lockout.
Ryan Smyth - Could be bought out. Would likely need to retire.
Ryan Jones - Would be without contract. Could perhaps be re-signed by Oilers.
Ryan Whitney - Would be UFA. Would likely not be re-signed by Oilers due to injury history.
Darcy Hordichuk - Would be UFA. May or may not be re-signed.
Lennart Petrell - Would be UFA. May or may not be re-signed.
Corey Potter - Likely would not return.
Theo Peckham - Would be RFA but might not be re-signed.

We're talking a possible turnover of 12 NHL jobs from only ONE team. Are you saying this isn't possible? I disagree. Here's a potential Oilers roster, post-lockout in 2013/2014:

Line 1: Hemsky - Nugent-Hopkins - Eberle
Line 2: Hall - Gagner - Yakupov
Line 3: Paajarvi - Lander - Hartikainen
Line 4: Tyrvainen - Vandevelde - Pitlick

D1: Klefbom - Justin Schultz
D2: Smid - Petry
D3: Teubert - Nick Schultz

G1: Dubnyk
G2: Danis, or Roy, or Bunz

I can hear what you're thinking: "OMG Richard, that roster blows! A bunch of kids?"

Can you think of a better opportunity for Oilers management to clean house? This lockout isn't the Oilers enemy: It's their friend. Talk about a way to rid yourself of everyone who won't be here when the team starts winning cups again. Plus, if you've seen Paajarvi/Lander/Hartikainen play as a unit, you know as well as I do they're a better long-term option than Smyth/Horcoff/Jones as a third line. Sooner or later, the Oilers will go completely with kids. So why not sooner, and save management some cash in the process?

Also keep in mind if there is no CBA in June 2013, there will be no draft. What this means is, the 2014 draft would be the most ridiculously deep draft in the history of the NHL. Two full seasons of Junior goodness. Call me diseased if you want, but if I'm the Oilers, I want to go first in the 2014 Entry Draft if it's got twice the talent. Don't we have an extra 2nd round pick from the Andrew Cogliano deal? In a double-draft situation, 2nd round picks are like mid-1st round picks. So the Oilers could walk away with 3 - 1st rounders in 2014? Say it is so! Incredible implications for the long-term success of the team.

You might be thinking to yourself, "team ownership and management care more about their players than that, don't they?" Why should they? From the owners perspective, the players are putting them through hell for no good reason. What better way to give Punch Buggies, No Return than to see hundreds...and yes, we're talking hundreds of current NHL players...lose their careers to younger, less expensive players after a long lockout?

Bob Stauffer himself said this week on his show that players from various markets have confessed to him that the NHLPA has no "Plan B". If NHL owners don't turn on each other, the NHLPA is so screwed. It seems like several former NHL stars - Craig Simpson, Mark Recchi, and Jeremy Roenick - Are urging current players to wake up and sign something before it's too late.

Hmmm...Russian Roulette. What's that old adage about the wisdom of attempting to win a land war in Asia during the winter? I didn't work for Napoleon or the Germans. I can't see how it's going to work for Donald and Steve Fehr. The NHL is Russia, and the owners are entrenched and well fortified. The PA has hit the wall.

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