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When it comes to player analysis, zone starts remain one of the most important measurements in hockey. Where a player begins his shift -- whether it be in the offensive third, neutral zone, or defensive third -- will have a dramatic effect on his offensive and defensive metrics.
Strong defensive players that are limited offensively -- or, play in a system where there are superior options -- tend to see the majority of their shifts start to the immediate left // right of their own goaltender. Look no further than the Vancouver Canucks and Manny Malhotra's zone starts for a case study in the above -- he's constantly used in a shutdown role(13.8% offensive zone starts), paving the way for high-skill players like Henrik and Daniel Sedin to put pressure on the opposition's goaltender (79.6% and 78.6% offensive zone starts, respectively).
Alain Vigneualt hasn't made it a secret to anyone that he uses his most gifted offensive players in the most desirable offensive minutes -- and, conversely, uses his most glorified shutdown defender in all of the high-leverage defensive zone shifts. While the Sedin twins are often lauded for their play, talents like Malhotra -- guys who can curtail scoring opportunities and still drive possession [
sub-note: he finished 40% of his shifts in the offensive zone last year -- a sick upgrade] are highly desirable.
Paul MacLean's followed a similar strategy with the Ottawa Senators, sending Erik Karlsson, Jason Spezza, Milan Michalek, Daniel Alfredsson, et al. over the boards with regularity every time there's an offensive-minded shift to be had. Collectively, they were serious point-producers -- the team finished fourth in the National Hockey League in scoring as a byproduct of their play. Still, it's important to note that while they were fantastic at getting pucks behind the goaltender, they weren't
always dominant when it came to puck possession.
MacLean's core talents -- like most first line players around the league -- saw a high number of their shifts start in the offensive zone, but watched the number of offensive zone finishes drop-off. In fact, not one of the above names finished his respective shifts at a plus-rate when pegged against his starts. This is fairly normal and studied across all thirty NHL teams, and does have a bit to do with the opposition employing their best defenders in these situations. Below, the numbers:
Milan Michalek: 61.5% OZs, 51.3% OZf.
Jason Spezza: 59.3% OZs, 51.3% OZf
Daniel Alfredsson: 58.3% OZs, 52.7% OZf.
Erik Karlsson: 57.1% OZs, 50.5% OZf.
The four key offensive producers for the Senators -- three forwards, and one defenseman -- still finished more than half of their collective shifts in the offensive zone, but at a negative rate against their start numbers.
As alluded to earlier, this is fairly common. The Sedin twins run a massive annual negative -- Malkin, Crosby, and Stamkos were all in the red, too. However, point production remains the priority, and all of the names mentioned here and above did just that. The reason why they're considered elite talents is that they score at a proportion well-above the league average for these starts, although admittedly, this is a bit anecdotal. I'd imagine any study of L1 players and their zoning would turn up some encouraging findings for these all-world players against their comparables -- perhaps that's a blog for another day.
The red flag is raised when top-six players who are receiving a high-quality of offensive zone starts don't have the necessary point production to warrant such gifted TOI. Think Bobby Butler here -- he started at a proportion common to the one's we saw above, with 56% of his starts coming in the offensive zone, and 52% of his zone finishes ending in the offensive zone. He ran a negative
and failed to produce much of anything on the stat sheet, scoring just sixteen points in fifty-six games.
The only two other qualified players to run positive zone splits? Erik Condra and Zack Smith. Both were used in bottom-six, defensive-first roles. Condra was strong at limiting chances and has found a niche of sorts as a shutdown type; Smith was better offensively, although both faced fairly weak competition -- comparable to the quality of teammates they were lined up with.
Next season, expect Paul MacLean to run a similar -- if not identical -- approach when it comes to shift management. If there's one angle to watch above all else, though, it's just how often he uses talented centerman Kyle Turris -- currently anchoring a talented L2 for the Ottawa Senators.
I've spoken quite candidly in the past about why I have so much hope for Kyle Turris as a piece in this organization, and after his first year of play with his new team in the nation's capital, optimism continues to rise. He's a rock-solid defensive player with high-end offensive skill, and his only issue -- at least right now -- appears to be a pretty slanted and unfair battle with shooting percentages and the luck factor. Turris creates a ton of scoring opportunities, but the amount that find the back of the net -- whether on his stick, or the stick of his teammates -- is simply not proportional.
The metrics around Turris' play last year are really encouraging, too, and I think his zone start // finish numbers -- when pegged against QualComp -- suggest he's probably better than most think. Unlike most top-six offensive players, Turris managed to run a positive offensive zone start // finish percentage all year round, starting 52.0% of his shifts there, and ending 53.3% of his shifts there. The +1.3% may not jump off the page, but considering the deficits -- some of which reach double digits -- other players tow, this should be encouraging.
And, again, Turris wasn't doing it against weak competition. In fact, his Corsi Relative QualComp was the best among all Ottawa Senators forwards last season. His statistical production [29 PTS -- 49 GP] may not blow the page off, but when adjusted for quality of teammates and quality of opposition, then factor in a tough first-year transition from his former team in Phoenix -- well, you have a stronger-than-average chance at a player breakout next season, and that's just relative to his already-solid production in 2011-2012.
But wait -- there's more. I call Kyle Turris
unlucky because he was, and it's all quantifiable. Turris, although fairly dominant when on the ice, saw a team-worst 7.43% on-ice shooting percentage -- yes, below the likes of Kaspars Daugavins. His on-ice save percentage was a team-best .943. Expecting one to climb upwards and the other to regress a bit isn't unfair -- in fact, its almost a guarantee. The positive, though, is that Turris almost certainly will post better than his 0.60 PPG average last year -- a number that's already comparable to Tomas Plekanec(0.64 PPG 2011-2012).
A lot of local media scribes talk about the potential regression bug when it comes to names like Jason Spezza and Erik Karlsson, and some of it is quite fair. The other end of the spectrum -- starting with L2 C Kyle Turris -- offers some quite savory projections and subsequent balances, though.
Back with more tomorrow.
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