Quick Hits and Musings: July 18, 2021
1) The Philadelphia Flyers are a better hockey team today than they were yesterday. On Saturday,
the team acquired 30-year-old right-handed veteran defenseman Ryan Ellis from the Nashville Predators. In exchange, the Flyers traded 24-year-old defenseman Phil Myers and 22-year-old center Nolan Patrick. The Predators immediately flipped Patrick, who was the second overall pick of the 2017 NHL Draft, to the Vegas Golden Knights for center Cody Glass, the sixth overall selection in 2017.
In Ellis, the Flyers have acquired an all-situations, two-way defenseman who eats a lot of ice time and is likely to step immediately into a blueline leadership role. He is solid defensively, a very good player at triggering the rush and is also a proven contributor in the offensive end of the ice.
The concern with Ellis, who has six years remaining on his contract at a $6.25 million cap hit -- a very reasonable AAV for a top-pairing defenseman in today's NHL, but one that will run until he's 36 years old -- is his injury history. He dressed in every game in 2018-19 but missed 20 games in 2019-20 and 19 games (due to a shoulder injury) in 2020-21. He returned for the stretch drive and playoff series against Carolina this year, and played close to his usual standards. Offensively, Ellis chipped in five points in the Predators' six-game loss to the Hurricanes in the first round of the playoffs.
Ellis is capable of having an impact on the Flyers similar to the one that fellow Predators alum Kimmo Timonen brought to the Flyers when he came over at age 32 in 2007 on a brand-new six-year deal. Timonen went on to play in a couple NHL All-Star Games, providing leadership and two-way stability as he won the Barry Ashbee Trophy five times.
In terms of injury risk, the Flyers are taking a leap of faith with Ellis. I will add, however, that it's actually a lesser risk than Philly took once upon a time when they made the blockbuster acquisition of Mark Howe. There was fear at the time that Howe was damaged goods. He was seriously injured -- in fact, nearly paralyzed -- when he was literally impaled on the spike that was used at the time to secure the net to the ice. Howe then had a down year by his standards the season after his return, and the Hartford Whalers decided to make him available for trade. In Philadelphia, Howe went on to have his best NHL seasons in his late 20s to early 30s, finishing as a three-time Norris Trophy finalist.
Let me make this crystal clear. I'm not saying that Ellis is the second coming of Mark Howe; a Hockey Hall of Famer and the greatest all-around defenseman in franchise history. That's not fair to Ellis. What I am saying is that if you have the opportunity to add a player capable of stepping immediately onto your top defensive pair, you do what it takes to step up and acquire him even if there are some injury question marks heading in.
2) Phil Myers is a player who has both excellent size and natural athleticism. The combination of being a big, right-handed shooting defenseman with excellent range and mobility is what got him to the NHL. At times over his two-plus NHL seasons with the Flyers, he played very effectively.
However, question marks have emerged over the player's level of innate hockey sense. So far in his career, Myers has had a tendency to make the same mistakes repeatedly despite his awareness of the issues and having both the work ethic and desire to address them. Specifically, he has been prone both to misreads off the puck and , up ice, a too-slow shot release that frequently negates his naturally heavy shot. Too many times this past season in particular, Myers got caught on the wrong side of the puck. Sometimes, he'd recover with his long reach to erase his own miscue, but many other times, the puck ended up in the net.
Myers is still capable of having a lengthy and decent NHL career as a starting defenseman. It's a shame it won't be in Philadelphia, where he underwent his learning curve and experienced the growing pains that most young defensemen endure. Nonetheless, the chance to acquire a player of Ellis' caliber represented an upgrade on the blueline for the Flyers.
3) Nolan Patrick is physically capable of playing better than he did in 2020-21. The main -- and perhaps only -- positive for him this past season was that he stayed reasonably healthy after missing the end of the 2018-19 season and the entire 2019-20 campaign due to issues with chronic migraines.
Here's the thing: What concerns me about Patrick, from an offensive standpoint is the long dry spells he's had in every NHL season to date. During those times, he's simply not getting to the scoring areas more than an isolated play or two. It's NOT that he's never shown himself capable of scoring in the NHL.
I don't think the way Patrick played this season was radically different from his pre-2019 patterns, either. His droughts coincided with stretches where he was too content to play an unassertive, perimeter-heavy game. When he pushes himself out of his comfort zone, he's considerably more effective. However, he has yet to do that on a sustained basis.
As a rookie in 2017-18, he had stretches of 10 points in 12 games (Feb. 16 to March 10, five goals, five assists) and a mini-streak of five points in three games (April 1 to 5, three goals, two assists). Overall, he had 13 goals and 30 points as a 19 y/o rookie. Not a bad start.
In year two, the Flyers were hoping for more progression. Patrick developed a bit defensively but his offensive game was basically a carbon copy (13g, 31 pts) of his rookie year. It was the same pattern: very long droughts, interspersed with a few hot streaks. In 2018-19, Patrick spells of 9 points in 10 games (Oct. 20 to Nov. 10, 5g, 5a) and 8 points in 8 games (Jan. 13 to Feb 4, 5g, 3 a).The rest of the season was nearly bone dry from a production standpoint.
In 2020-21, there were times where I thought Patrick was getting on the right track. He made some nice subtle plays with the puck. Despite having a very ugly traditional plus-minus, he seemed to work to provide defensive support. I liked how Patrick got a little nasty in battles with former teammate Mark Friedman. I'd like to see him do more of those things. The biggest thing that he doesn't yet with any consistency is to push himself out of his comfort zone. This was especially true on the attack. He is too often content to stay on the perimeter, and he's not very effective there.
In terms of bottom-line productivity, Patrick had a strong training camp back in January and then started the regular season with five points (2g, 3a) in the first game. Then he basically vanished. Over his next 31 games, Patrick posted a mere two points (2g, 0a). He had three power play points for the entire season, one of which was a deflection goal in the first period on opening night, despite being a power play regular for the majority of the season.
The Flyers simply could not afford to go into another season counting on Patrick to start producing with greater regularity. The player himself seemed to want a fresh start elsewhere. Maybe it will work out for him in Vegas. But wherever he goes, Patrick is going to need to start competing with more assertiveness.
4) One of the biggest benefits of the Ellis trade as it was constructed is that the Flyers still retain all seven of their 2021 Entry Draft picks, including the 13th overall selection of the first round. They also retain all seven of their 2022 Entry Draft selections. That provides a lot of flexibility with the NHL Expansion Draft and the NHL Entry Draft forthcoming in the next week.
"In terms of going forward, clearly the 13th pick is a great commodity and we're open to move it in the right scenario. We'd also be very excited to take the player that falls to us there. There's not a lot of redeeming factors about having the season we did. The only benefit you do get is a high pick. We certainly hope to maximize the value of that pick one way or the other and do something so we can avoid picking number 13 for the for the foreseeable future," said general manager and team president Chuck Fletcher.
"I think we're certainly going to continue to look at every avenue to get better. We weren't good enough last year. Ryan Ellis is an upgrade. He's a step in the right direction. But we're not going to get complacent. We'll do what we can to upgrade in the areas we can. The primary focus certainly going into next year will be on reducing our goals against. As I mentioned the last time we all got together, part of that will be certainly looking to the outside to acquire additional help, whether that's goaltending, defenseman or forwards. Wherever we can upgrade, we will. We also have to have a pretty big focus once we get back as a team on playing the right way and having a great training camp, making use of all the practice time we have. We need a lot of our returning players to be better, quite frankly. It's a little bit of looking to the outside. Maybe even more importantly, having a renewed focus on playing the right way, so we can be more successful."
5) The NHL deadline for filing 2021 Expansion Draft player protection lists passed on Saturday at 5 p.m. EDT. There is a now a trade freeze in place until Thursday; one day after the Expansion Draft. Trades with the Seattle Kraken are exempt from the temporary freeze.
The Flyers' trade on Saturday, apart from swapping in Ellis for Myers on the Flyers' protected list, created an opening to protect one additional forward with Patrick departing for Vegas by way of Nashville. Most likely, the Flyers opted to protected either James van Riemsdyk or Nicolas Aube-Kubel.
The Flyers' protected list (and, by means of omission, the identities of the exposed players) will be announced today. It is likely that the exposed players will include Jakub Voracek, Shayne Gostisbehere, Justin Braun, Robert Hägg and one of JVR or Aube-Kubel.
6) Let's talk salary cap considerations: Saturday's trade left the Flyers with $9,385,477 of available cap space this offseason, with a pair of unsigned restricted free agents (arbitration-eligible defenseman Travis Sanheim and arbitration-ineligible goalie Carter Hart).
The absorption of Ellis' contract means a $6.25 million cap hit obligation. The subtraction of Myers ($2.66 million AAV) and Patrick (an arbitration-ineligible restricted free agent who made $874,125 last season) netted a negative $3.59 million impact on the Flyers' available offseason cap space.
However, depending on whom the Flyers lose in the NHL Expansion Draft and whatever maneuvering (if any) is made around it that impacts Philadelphia's cap space, the Flyers could potentially end up net-positive in cap space relative to where they started the offseason.
Here's the most straightforward scenario. Let's say that Seattle selected Gostisbehere from the Flyers in the Expansion Draft with no sweeteners offers by Philadelphia. This seems like a viable strategy for the Kraken, because Gostisbehere could step directly onto their top power play unit, playing on their second or third defense pair (either at left or right D, because he's comfortable at both spots), has two seasons left on his current contract and his AAV of $4.5 million is helpful toward reaching the cap floor without being exorbitant. Ghost is the Flyers' player I would select if I were Kraken general manager Ron Francis.
If this were, in fact, to come to fruition, the Flyers addition of Ellis and subtractions of Gostisbehere and Myers would net a positive $910,000 salary cap space differential for Philadelphia (with one fewer RFA left to sign) relative to where they were before Saturday. In term of available dollars, that would send the Flyers into Entry Draft weekend/ looming free agency season with a maximum of $13,885,477 of cap space under the ceiling and still retain all seven of their 2021 Entry Draft choices.
Now let's change the parameters a bit. Let's just suppose that the Kraken decide to take Braun because Francis sees his additional as a bit of first-year veteran leadership from a low-maintenance player, and the fact that his contract expires after next season. The loss of Braun's $1.8 million cap hit would still leave the Flyers net-negative cap space wise on where they were before the Ellis trade but they'd still have $11,185,477 of available cap space.
What would the implications -- barring a side deals with Seattle -- be if Voracek or JVR is selected by the Kraken. The subtraction of Voracek's three remaining contracted seasons would add $8.25 million onto the current $9,385,477, giving the Flyers a maximum of $17,635,477 of cap space. However, it may cost the Flyers assets (quite possibly the 13th pick of the 2021 Draft) and also create a replacement cost on the NHL roster. For van Riemsdyk and his two remaining seasons at at a $7 million cap hit, the Flyers would have a maximum of $16,385,477 of cap space heading into the Draft and the free agency period.
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