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Thursday’s practice and an analysis of the two squads’ special teams |
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The Rangers will practice Friday for the last time before heading to Toronto on Sunday. Once they arrive to the Great North, New York will practice each day leading up to the Islanders match July 29, then take Thursday off. The team will prep for the ’Canes on Friday the 31st, before the puck drops the following day at 12pm as the first match of the play-in round. In addition, I have a look below at the special teams.
In practice, of which there have been 10 since training camp 2.0 started, the Rangers have stuck with the trios up front and duos on the back end that led to the 18-10-1 push to make the play-in round. Up front, Kreider-Zib-Buch and Panarin-Strome-Fast have remained intact. The only mild tweaking has been to the bottom-six to accommodate the two-game suspension handed out to Brendan Lemieux. The third line of PDG-Chytil-Kappo looks like they will remain together. But as I have said before, don’t be shocked if Julien Gauthier gets a crack at the third line, especially if Kakko is moved up to provide another scoring threat. As of now, with Lemieux out, the final line consists of Brett Howden-Greg McKegg-Gauthier. While each member of the taxi squad - Steve Fogarty, Vinnie Lettieri and Vitali Kravtsov - had a chance to skate at least once with the big boys in practice, I would be surprised if any suited up for the playoffs, unless an injury or illness hit.
On the blueline, Brendan Smith, who replaced Brady Skjei on defense after the latter’s trade to Carolina, remains stapled to the left of Jacob Trouba. The true first pair of Adam Fox and Ryan Lindgren should see a ton of action against the ‘Canes. Marc Staal and Tony DeAngelo comprise the third pair with Libor Hajek waiting in the wings as the extra defenseman.
Igor Shesterkin has been the goalie in one net while Henrik Lundqvist and Alex Georgiev split the other. All signs point to the Heir apparent starting Game 1 against the ‘Canes. But there is still a little more than a week until that contest, and if Lundqvist continues to look as good as he has recently in practice, you wonder if his history against Carolina could sway coach David Quinn’s decision.
A analysis of the special teams
New York:
As pointed out by Larry Brooks and others, Thursday’s practice focused on special teams. The penalty kill, a concern at times during the season, will need to pull its weight in the play-in round regardless of how potent the power play is. Carolina has been strong shorthanded, finishing fourth in the league with an 84.0% kill success rate, so if that unit can negate New York’s seventh rated 22.9% group, the burden shifts to the Blueshirts PK (23rd in league at 77.4%) to return the favor against a group that finished just behind New York at 22.3%, eighth in the league
The man-advantage units remain the same, with Artemi Panarin (24 PPP), Mika Zibanejad (27 PPP, including 15 goals), Chris Kreider (nine PPG while serving as a screener for the Panarin and Zib hash marks and face off dot blasts) Ryan Strome (17 PPP) and Tony DeAngelo (19 PPP) on PP1 and with Pavel Buchnevich, Filip Chytil, Kaapo Kakko (13 PPP out of his 23 total points), Adam Fox (13 PPP) and Jacob Trouba on PP2. I could see Quinn trying Gauthier as a net front presence on the second five, similar to the role Kreider plays.
Quinn moved Strome on December 27 to the first unit, replacing Buchnevich, creating a unit of four righties and the one lefty in Kreider. An odd combination but one that took off, aided by the Panarin-Strome chemistry. From that date until the pandemic hit, the Blueshirts scored 29 goals and had the best efficiency ratio in the league at 29.3 per cent.
The penalty kill did not have the same kind of success as the power play. Quinn used Zibanejad-Fast, Strome-Howden and McKegg-Phil Di Giuseppe forward tandems on the PK with Staal-Smith and Lindgren-Trouba defense pairs. As pointed out by Brooks, Fast, Strome, Zibanejad, Howden and McKegg were top five in forwards’ penalty-kill ice time during the season. Lemieux, suspended for the first two games against Carolina, was sixth. Di Giuseppe was on for a sum of 2:15 of penalty-kill work in his 20 games with the Blueshirts and was on for two power-play goals against.
New York had one period of substantial success short handed. As Vince Mercogliano pointed out, from November 23 until February 19, three weeks before the halt in play, the team’s 84.8% kill ratio was the third-best in the league. With Lindy Ruff no longer behold the bench, it will be interesting to see if either Gord Murphy or Greg Brown tweak how the team plays short handed. When Zib and Fast are aggressive up top, the Rangers seem to have their best success. But that also means getting on the same page as the defensive pairings and narrowing the gaps in their own zone.
New York got in trouble when their sticks were in the wrong position and they failed to cover the slot, like any other penalty kill. At times, the middle of the ice parted like the Red Sea, with opponents able to stroll down the slot with impunity. When the Rangers did a better job of narrowing space, the penalty kill took off.
Carolina
As noted above, the Hurricanes finished in the top-eight in both the power play and penalty kill. Edmonton and Boston, each of whom are also in the post-season, were the only other two teams to match Carolina in that regard. With playoff game usually decided by one goal, special teams in more instances than not tip the balance. If that proves to once again to be the case, the Hurricanes may have a defined advantage over the Blueshirts.
Carolina’s first power play is made up of Sebastian Aho, Teuvo Teravainen (21 PPP) and Andrei Svechnikov (20 PPP). One point will be manned by Dougie Hamilton, who is slated to return from the broken left leg he suffered in January. Prior to being sidelined, Hamilton tallied 12 of his 40 points on the man advantage, but he did leave practice early Wednesday and was deemed unfit to practice Thursday, which bears watching. While Hamilton was out, Jaccob Slavin ably filled one for him, and while Slavin is expected to slide back to the second unit, coach Rob Brind’Amour could pair that duo at the point, especially no other forward has been dominant on the power play.
If Brind’Amour opts does a forward at the fifth member of the unit, look for Justin Williams, who saw most of the action there when Hamilton was out, to fill that spot. Nino Neiderreiter and Vincent Trocheck should comprise two parts of the second unit, joined by either Williams or Slavin. Sami Vatanen, returning from injury, or Jake Gardiner, if he is in the lineup, might man one point with Ryan Dzingel or Jordan Staal completing the five-man grouping, though I expect Carolina to go with four forwards and one blueliner on this unit as well, meaning Vatanen will be on the bench.
Brett Pesce was the most short handed time on ice at 3:15, but a right shoulder injury likely will keep him out of this series. With Pesce out, Slavin-Joel Edmundson saw the most SH TOI, and based on the teams success, the adage if if it isn’t broke don’t fix it applies, meaning that Brind’Amour likely will keep that duo together. If he decides to get creative, Carolina gets Hamilton and Vatanen back from injury and could pair that defensive duo on their first penalty kill unit, using the practice time to get those two acclimated to playing together for the first time. Tyat would leave Slavin, Skjei and Edmundson are all options for the second pairing while Slavin and Hamilton, maintaining that lefty-righty balance, could be the top pairing with Skjei-Slavin the second unit.
Up front, Staal and Brock McGinn logged the most time on ice shorthanded followed by a wide margin by Aho and Teravainen and then a gap to Warren Foegele. Look for Staal and McGinn to match up against New York’s potent first unit. Aho had four goals short handed, which is something to watch for when he is on the ice.
Outlook
By virtue of the numbers, Carolina has the edge, but New York looks to be more dangerous, especially on the man-advantage. The Hurricanes do get Hamilton back, which helps their already strong power play, also aided by the addition of Vatanen. One additional benefit is that their return alleviates some of the pressure on and workload of Slavin, which could make him even more dangerous.
Head-to-head, and as if I have said and will continue to say repeatedly, take these numbers with a major grain of salt, New York was 5-for-15 on the man-advantage, scoring in all four games, while Carolina was just 2-for-16 on the power play. This strong performance helped the Blueshirts sweep the season series.
As noted above, whoever wins this battle has a good chance to take the play-in round series. A net flat might help New York more than Carolina, since in general offensively they might be more dangerous, especially on the top two lines. If the Hurricanes w d up with an edge, that could tip the balance of the series in their favor.
New York Rangers Blogger • 
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