The Rangers are close to completing their pre-play-in-round training camp in Tarrytown, New York. New York will travel Sunday to Toronto for the exhibition game against the Islanders on July 29 and series versus the Hurricanes fully healthy. While coach David Quinn has not yet revealed who will be between the pipes, if practice work is a signal, we have our tell-tale sign.
If you believe that how a goaltender is used in practice is an indicator of future use, the below provide a pretty good guide who will be in net come August 1. Nothing is set in stone. But, all signs seem to point to Igor Shesterkin, taken in the fourth round of 2017, resuming his role as #1 goalie for the Rangers since he has mainly been in one net all to his lonesome while Henrik Lundqvist and Alexandar Georgiev have shared time at the other end of the ice.
John Davidson said the below on ESPN Radio today (thanks to nyrangersnews.com for the transacripton). While JD mentioned all three goalies, the only one he said by name was Shesterkin. Read into that what you will, but it is telling. How much? That's for you to decide
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On the goaltending, āI like our group, all three have had a good camp. Coaches will have to make a serious decision regarding who will start game one. Shesterkin has had the net lately more so than the other two, communication is right on the top, everyone understands where we are, short series best-of-five, that thing can change so fast, you have to be ready. All three have worked their tails off and had exceptional camps and ready to go. If Shesterkin does play it will be a new experience for him. I look at Kakko and the way he came back from Finland, he looks like he aged 1-2 years, more mature looking, quicker stride, much more confidence than what he had before the pause started. We look for things like that. Once we get playing, the value of playing in something like this for young players canāt be duplicated anywhere. Iām thankful we have this opportunity to play Carolina, if we win we go into the playoffs. The experience factor, you canāt pay for it, itās invaluable, that is a real good sign for us.
With the playoffs a little more than a week away, I will take a look at both teams, focusing on goalies, then forwards, defense and special teams. In the past, I used to do a deep dive behind the numbers. With no games played in four months, focusing on those numbers seems to be a somewhat pointless exercise, but I will try and include some stats in the analysis. But as I have written before, once the puck is dropped in the first game, much of the ink spilled becomes bird cage liner, since it will be obviated.
New York Rangers:
Georgiev, Lundqvist and Shesterkin
Experience and historical dominance versus a team compared to upside, potential and role prior to the pandemic shutdown. That is the decision that looms for coach David Quinn. Lundqvist, as seen below laid out by Rick Carpinello in his column back in May, has dominated against the 'Canes. But the struggles we saw last season continued this year and he ceded the #1 role to the heir apparent, Shesterkin. Lundqvist's advanced metrics are still solid, but watching him, you could sense a decline in his reaction time, which was the skill that made him elite. Shesterkin assumed the role of top netminder and never looked back. Georgiev also could factor in the mix, but at least initially, this looks to be a two-headed battle with a probable clear favorite.
The Rangers have won 31 of 37 meetings with Carolina since Feb. 22, 2011. During that time, Lundqvist is 24-4-0 with a 1.73 goals-against average, a .947 save percentage and one shutout.
This year, when the Rangers swept the Hurricanes, Lundqvist twice put up 40-plus save victories, including an absolute robbery when he stopped 45 of 47 in a November victory in Raleigh. He is the second NHL goalie since the 1967 expansion to have two 40-plus save wins against one opponent in the same season (and he had 39 saves in a third win against the Canes). For what itās worth, Shesterkin beat Carolina 5-2 on Feb. 21 in Raleigh, one of the Rangersā most important and impressive victories of the season.
Then you add the mega-caveat that Lundqvist has started a franchise-record 128 playoff games (including the last 127 in a row) and has put the team on his back for so many postseason series, especially in that run from 2012-17, while Shesterkin and Georgiev have played a combined zero playoff games, and, well, that could influence a decision. Right?
Since Jan. 2 (or one game before Shesterkin arrived from Hartford), Lundqvist started four of the last 30 games ā three lousy losses and a shutout win over Detroit. Lundqvist started one of the last 19 games, plus two relief appearances. Yes, his game slipped, partly due to inactivity, partly because he also celebrated his 38th birthday.
Shesterkin, who was dominating in Hartford, resulting in Rangers' faithful clamoring for his promotion, debuted on Jan. 7 and went 10-2 with a 2.52 GAA and a .932 SV%, leading to his ascensionĀ to #1 goalie. Conversely, after a strong start, Lundqvist finished with a 3.16 GAA and a .905 SV%, while Georgiev posted a 3.04 GAA and a .910 SV%. (As Vince Mercoglano pointed, for the advanced stats crowd, Shesterkin's 9.34 goals saved above average also towered over Georgiev's 0.12 and Lundqvist's -4.16.)Ā
One key aspect to Shesterkin's game that sets him apart from Lundqvist is his puck handling. His ability to move the puck deftly, alleviates pressure on the blue line, saving the defense from hits while also slowing an opponent's forecheck and springing the Rangers' counter attack. This has also been an area of "weakness" for Lundqvist, which for Shesterkin, and to a lesser extent, Georgiev, is a strength. If looking for a major difference between Igor and Hank, this is more certainly it, along with the age differential and recovery time in net.
Georgiev could be a #1 goalie down the road, but for now, his role is likely third goalie. Regardless of which one between Igor and Hank is between the pipes, the other is expected to be the back up. This is not a slight on Georgiev, who was the #2 at times this year, but reflective of the status of the big two.
Quinn could go with Lundqvist in Game 1 due to past performance and then switch to Shesterkin if he struggles. The other option is the inverse, go with the neophyte to start the series and then switch to the veteran if Shesterkin struggles and.or loses. My guess - and this mirrors what has been on display in camp, even though formal word has not yet been provided - Shesterkin will be between the pipes in Game 1 on August 1.
Carolina Hurricanes:
Petr Mrazek and James Reimer
The Blackhawks showed years ago, when Antti Niemi was in goal, that an elite netminder does not necessarily need to be between the pipes to win a Stanley Cup. Granted, that Chicago team was much stronger than this Carolina squad, but the point stands. Last season, Mrazek posted a 2.39 GAA and .914 SV%, looking like the goalie of the future Detroit thought they had in goal, carrying the 'Canes to the Eastern Conference Finals.
This season, Mrazek at times looked like the 2016-17 and 2017-18 version that paved his way out of Hockeytown rather than one who looked like he turned the clock back to 2014-15 and 2015-16.Ā The 28-year-old Mrazek saw his GAA rise to 2.69 GAA and his save percentage dropped to .905 while posting a 21-16-2 record.
Reimer actually outperformed Mrazek statistically, rebounding from seeing his GAA rise for three straight seasons to 3.09 last year while his SV% declined from .922 in 2015-16 to .900 last season in Florida. This season, ReimerĀ went 14-6 with a 2.66 GAA and a .914 SV%, playing in 25 games compared to 40 for Mrazek. Alex Nedlejokic is the third goalieĀ while David Ayers is nowhere to be found.
Neither Mrazek nor Reimer fared particularly well in the Hurricanes' four losses to the Rangers this season. Mrazek posted a 3.44 GAA and a .872 SV% in three starts, while Reimer allowed five goals with a lowly .792 SV% on Dec. 27. Plus, as noted above, given the length of time between games of any sort for each team let alone action between the two squads, this is nice statistical info but likely won't have any bearing as to who starts the series between the pipes, which is likely to be Mrazek.
Outlook:
On paper, this is the area of greatest advantage for New York, regardless if Lundqvist or Shesterkin is in net. Mrazek showed last season that. He can come up with the big save at the big moment when needed. But the Rangers have the historical psychological advantage if Lundqvist is between the pipes or the goalie with the better upside if Shesterkin. Winning Game 1 would firmly cement that view.
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