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The Buffalo Sabres will dip into the European free agent market once again as they’re reportedly interested in signing 28-year-old forward Jesper Olofsson, Victor Olofsson’s older brother.
Olofsson was top 10 in even strength primary points per game among skaters with 30 or more games played, so he’s certainly no slouch of a forward but it’s difficult to look past the obvious here. The Sabres have done something like this before, signing a family member as a gesture. In 2015, they signed Cal O’Reilly, Ryan O’Reilly’s older brother, to a two year deal just 48 hours before announcing a massive extension for the younger O’Reilly. Given Jesper Olofsson’s scoring rate it’s certainly possible that he had NHL interest in general and that his younger brother was a selling point for him, but a closer look at the numbers suggest that fans should at the very least temper expectations.
The chart and player cards below (access by clicking the provided link), courtesy of betterthanamonkey.com reveal to us that perhaps his impact to his team is a bit overestimated.
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http://www.betterthanamonkey.com/?page_id=1561
Olofsson doesn’t really hurt his team but he’s not one of the play drivers either. Much like Gustav Rydahl, who I short listed as a free agent target for the Sabres a while back, Olofsson appears to be more of a shooting talent benefiting from the work of players like Victor Ejdsell or Per Aslund. That’s not necessarily a bad thing, however. Though he may not move the needle like those players, Olofsson shot 14.29% at even strength on 77 shots, which ranks him 9th among all skaters with 65 shots or more at even strength. He also contributed on the powerplay, with 8 primary points (6 of them goals) and also ranked top 10 in shooting percentage among skaters with 15 shots or more.
Data via Pick224.com
While he’s shown an ability to produce, the (insert contract salary here) dollar question is, will that be enough to earn him a spot on the Sabres or is he simply a depth signing for Rochester? At 28 years old, he clearly wouldn’t be an addition to the prospect pool like Arttu Ruotsalainen was, but is the body of work in the SHL enough for Jason Botterill and company to have him down as contender for one of the final spots on the NHL roster? The NHLe calculator is used quite often to get a rough estimate of what a player’s production in one league might translate to another. Using the one provided by Frozen tools (
which can be found here), we get an estimate of 31 points in 82 games played. This scoring rate would put Olofsson ahead of forwards like Jimmy Vesey, Zemgus Girgensons and Johan Larsson, so not insignificant but it’s not a guarantee of production either.
Overall, even in the worst-case scenario that Olofsson is nothing more than depth in the AHL, this would still probably be a worthwhile signing. His shooting talent in the SHL puts him ahead of anyone the Sabres could target as a veteran signing for Rochester and if it brings Victor Olofsson’s ask on his next contract down a bit it also serves as legal cap circumvention. That’s not bad value for a likely inexpensive contract.
Thanks for reading!
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