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In this edition of the hotstove, we share our choices for the Hart Trophy.
Todd Cordell
I went with Nathan MacKinnon at the unofficial mid-point of the season and he’s given me no reason to change that.
MacKinnon is having an unbelievably strong season for the injury plagued Colorado Avalanche. He has amassed 93 points in 69 games, putting him 43 points clear of the closest teammate (Cale Makar) and 48 points of the closest forward (Andre Burakovsky). He’s had a revolving door of linemates and it hasn’t mattered one bit.
His on-ice numbers are also very good. The Avs have controlled ~55% of the expected goals with MacKinnon and he owns a +24 goal differential at 5v5.
By all accounts he’s the straw that stirs the drink for the Avalanche who, despite a *ton* of man games lost to key players, sit behind only Boston and St. Louis in points percentage.
James Tanner
I pick Leon Draisaitl because I don't want to deal with everyone telling me how stupid I am..........
Just Kidding!
It's Auston Matthews.
Matthews has the best Corsi (along with Pastrnak) and Expected Goals Rating out of all reasonable candidates, while also having the lowest on-ice shooting percentage.
Matthews leads in expected-goal percentage with a 55% rating.
MacKinnon 54%, Pastrnak 54% , Draisaitl 49%, Panarin 46%.
He has the best high-danger scoring chance percentage among candidates. (56%)
He's the NHL's best two-way centre, and the Leafs are absolutely dominant when he's on the ice.
He is also the NHL's 5v5 scoring leader, and is very close to leading in primary points 5v5.
Goals should be valued more than points. And 5v5 goals more than PP ones.
Corsi and Expected goals should be massive factors as well.
Matthews leads the NHL in all of the most important categories, and his point totals are suppressed by the fact that he has Nylander, Marner and Tavares on his team so the offense gets spread around.
Best player in the world. He should win the MVP.
Numbers via NaturalStatTrick.com
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