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Guest Writer JW Novak. “ Monday will be fun ..for better or worse

May 1, 2025, 7:30 PM ET [7 Comments]
The Fan Blog
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While it's not a predictor. The odds are the same on the tankation site.

If you Sim the lottery enough, you get a large enough sample size. A bigger picture of the likely scenarios.

By the numbers the least likely outcome is they get 3rd overall. But it's like a fraction of a percent. So taking that out of the possible scenarios, the least likely outcome is that Philly drafts 4th. It's wild how rare it is. They either jump into the top 2 or they drop to 5th or 6th. And both happen quite frequently. By the percentages, 4th is such a weird spot to finish.

I saw Philly at 1st or 2nd in the draft sim pretty frequently. Two years ago it was a maybe, but I never actually expected Philly to jump in the draft order. This year though?

Not to get everyone's hopes up or anything... One way or another, it's the chalk pick technically, but I'm pretty sure they aren't drafting 4th... We're either going to be bummed or excited...
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